CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 To bad Bustardi is not on here, I would nominate him for WOTY It's not totally impossible it could be more of a suppressed track, it's going to need the confluence north of New England, and the southern s/w in the long wave trough extending into the OV at hr 162 to remain separate from the s/w coming into Lake Superior. There also is a kicker s/w moving down into the western high plains at hr 168. Overall guidance would seem to disagree with the euro op, but the ensembles will be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Do you get a tingle down there when he sends tweets out? Down where specifically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 It's not totally impossible it could be more of a suppressed track, it's going to need the confluence north of New England, and the southern s/w in the long wave trough extending into the OV at hr 162 to remain separate from the s/w coming into Lake Superior. There also is a kicker s/w moving down into the western high plains at hr 168. Overall guidance would seem to disagree with the euro op, but the ensembles will be out soon. I am sure it is possible, All the other models seem like they want to go to town with is further SW somewhere over the OV, I would rather as well as many would like to see that happen further east as the Euro OP had, Is it right? Time will tell, Right now, Nothing is really off the table, I still think there will be some frozen for some with this system, But as it looks now it would be on the front end if we have any chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Down where specifically? Probably down in this area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 GEFS has got it going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Wow, impressive wording from NCEP! EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 152 PM EST WED NOV 21 2012 VALID 12Z SAT NOV 24 2012 - 12Z WED NOV 28 2012 TELECONNECTIONS FROM A POSITIVE 500 MB HEIGHT ANOMALY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BERING STRAIT... A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW NORTH OF HUDSON BAY...AND DEVELOPING SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SUPPORT A POTENTIAL COMET IMPACT OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS DAYS 5-7 TUE 27 TO THU 29 NOV. THERE ARE TIMING AND PHASING DIFFERENCE TO RESOLVE...WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00-06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE 00-06Z GFS RUNS SWINGING FROM ONE END OF THE CONTINUUM OF SOLUTIONS TO THE OTHER END...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR ANY ONE RUN THAT JUSTIFIES MAXIMIZING DRAMA FROM KNOWN SOURCE ORIGIN OF MT TOLLAND CT. WITH BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT IN THE 500 MB WAVE PATTERN IN THE 00Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN...THESE SOLUTIONS WERE BLENDED WITH THE 00Z ECMWF TO COME UP WITH A LUDICROUS STORM THAT NO ONE CAN HIDE FROM. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE FINAL...WITH A FULL-ON FRONTAL ACT OF IMPROPRIETY TOWARDS THE THERMONUCLEAR BOMB DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY IN THE OH VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST DAYS 6-7 ...AS THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATE. JUST WOW. NO WORDS. WESTERN US... OBLITERATED. THE ECMWF BECOMES A MINORITY SOLUTION ON TUE/D6 27 NOV WITH A ROBUST SYSTEM JUST NW OF WASHINGTON...BUT I LIKE THAT. SO WHAT THAT WITH THE MAJORITY OF ITS ENSEMBLES AND THE 06Z GFS KEEPING THE 500 MB WAVE FURTHER WEST BECAUSE THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE BORING. WITH A BIG CHANGE IN CONTINUITY AND FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN SUPPORT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE 00Z ECMWF FORECAST IS WAY WAY UNDERDONE WITH THIS POTENTIAL EARTH ORBIT CHANGING EVENT. THE 00Z ECMWF RECOVERS TO DEVELOP A DEEPER CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ON DAY 7 WHICH RESULTS IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. OKAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE BETTER RUN TO RUN IMPLICATIONS FOR ABJECT TERROR...SO THE PERSISTENT CYCLONE OFFSHORE FAVORS TRIGGERING A 3000 NAUTICAL MILE WIDE SLIPPAGE OF THE SAN ANDREAS FAULT SYSTEM EXACERBATING THE ONGOING OBSERVED PHENOMENON OF CALIFORNIA FALLING INTO THE ABYSAL DEPTHS OF THE PACIFIC OCEANIC GAPING MAW. CONSEQUENTLY...KEEPING THE ECMWF WITHIN THE BLEND IS HIGHLY HIGHLY PREFERRED. PLUS THIS OFFSETS THE LOWER AMPLITUDE RIDGE SOLUTION OFFERED IN THE GEFS MEMBERS AND 00Z GFS WHICH WE ALL KNOW CANNOT HAPPEN. IN THE EAST... AHHHHHHH! DOWNPLAYED THE NORTHERLY AND QUICKER GFS SUN/D4 WITH THE SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH MN/WI/MI IN FAVOR OF THE ECMWF/UKMET WHICH FIT BETTER WITH CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THUS OPENS THE DOOR TO SCARE THE UNHOLY PISS OUT OF THE PROVINTIALS. TO MY EYES THE 06Z GFS DEVELOPS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE US CANADIAN BORDER...TRENDING TOWARDS THE PREFERRED PLANETARY DEMOLISHING CLUSTER****. THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TRUE HORROR STORY MOVING WITH DEATHLY INTENT OUT OF TX/OK MON DAY 5 AND INTO THE OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES TUE DAY 6 AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES WED DAY 7. PEOPLE REALLY NEED TO HEED THE WARNING AND RUSH ALL PREPARATIONS FOR PROPERTY AND PERSONAL SAFETY TO COMPLETION. THE 00Z/YESTERDAY 12Z ECMWF ARE QUICKER TO PUT THE WOOD A HAPLESS NJ CIVILITY THAT SUFFERED SO LITTLE ACTUAL IMPACT FROM SO-SO SUPERSTORM SANDY. THAN THERE WAS THE 00-06Z GFS. WOW. IT MOVED THE CYCLONE NORTHEAST AND CONSEQUENTLY ... WELL JUST PUT IT THIS WAY YOU PROBABLY NEED NOT READ ANY FURTHER. BY THE WAY THE GFS IS SLOWER IN MOVING THE TRAILING FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY WED/D7 BUT I HAVE NO CLUE WHAT THAT MEANS. LETS SEE. WHAT ELSE. OH YEAH THE 06Z GFS HAS SPED UP THE FORWARD PROFESSION OF THE 500 MB WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE EAST. THIS IS OFFSET BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH THAN ECMWF/UKMET. SINCE THE 00Z GEFS MEAN CYCLONE TRACK AND POSITION OF THE TRAILING FRONT AGREE BETTER WITH MY DELUSION OF METEOROLOGICAL GRANDEUR RUN WITH IT. WITH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE TIMING/PHASING GIVING ME WOOD ...A BLEND WAS PREFERRED. KEVIN - WORD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Good lord with these continuity issue! Like watching a series of "24". It's 51 there today per Wund. Don't think anyone here believes it will be cooler on Friday than today. Kevin does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Euro ensembles did shift east a bit and much weaker with that low. It's back to a more SWFE look. Tough to tell on the ensembles mean, but verbatim...probably a low tracking across the s coast of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 It's not totally impossible it could be more of a suppressed track, it's going to need the confluence north of New England, and the southern s/w in the long wave trough extending into the OV at hr 162 to remain separate from the s/w coming into Lake Superior. There also is a kicker s/w moving down into the western high plains at hr 168. Overall guidance would seem to disagree with the euro op, but the ensembles will be out soon. Of course the track is not impossible. But his reasoning is faulty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Euro ensembles did shift east a bit and much weaker with that low. It's back to a more SWFE look. Tough to tell on the ensembles mean, but verbatim...probably a low tracking across the s coast of SNE. I had this conversation with Will yesterday, but having a low go underneath one's latitude ... I don't see how that could be construed as a SWFE. Granted, this is a term invented by the local crew - Perhaps I don't understand the spatial reasoning there. My understanding was a cutter that happens up against a strong llv polar high N of the area, such the predominating deep layer flow is SW aloft, over top. If a low is deepening while going along the south coast, then you're closing the 850 and 700 mb surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The aftertaste of Sandy (that sounds awkward......): I discovered on Monday that the transformer from the pole out front was leaking. Called WMECO. Mini-hazardous waste area. They had three trucks here along with their envioronmental folks. Dug out a 10X10 area from the lawn around the pole and deposited in big black barrels. Apparently, a tree that had taken out the lines down the road (and our power for 36 hours) in Sandy had managed to yank all the way up to our transformer causing the damage. So, WMECO is sending a local landscaping company to repair the lawn. As an aside--when they cut the power to repair this on Monday, they knocked my Davis off-line. Just now managed to get it back up and running. Boy is it toasty--45/25. Friday's going to be brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Of course the track is not impossible. But his reasoning is faulty. I was just pointing out how it was possible by describing what the euro was doing....and what would have to happen. Of course saying something is possible vs something that is likely, can be night and day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 GEFS has got it going on Looking down on the merry-go-round of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I had this conversation with Will yesterday, but having a low go underneath one's latitude ... I don't see how that could be construed as a SWFE. Granted, this is a term invented by the local crew - Perhaps I don't understand the spatial reasoning there. My understanding was a cutter that happens up against a strong llv polar high N of the area, such the predominating deep layer flow is SW aloft, over top. If a low is deepening while going along the south coast, then you're closing the 850 and 700 mb surfaces. The sfc low can get squeezed south of us while the mid-level centers never do...this happens in a lot of SWFEs. 12/16/07 we had a sfc reflection redevelop S of us. 12/13/07 and 2/22/08 both had sfc reflections south of us but stayed with deep layer SW flow from the mid-levels and upper levels. 12/19/08 too though perhaps that one became a little more ambiguous when you bring it down to the 800-850mb level. If we managed to redevelop the mid-level centers to the south and turn the winds more SSE or even E, then I agree that is definitely not a SWFE as we have defined them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I had this conversation with Will yesterday, but having a low go underneath one's latitude ... I don't see how that could be construed as a SWFE. Granted, this is a term invented by the local crew - Perhaps I don't understand the spatial reasoning there. My understanding was a cutter that happens up against a strong llv polar high N of the area, such the predominating deep layer flow is SW aloft, over top. If a low is deepening while going along the south coast, then you're closing the 850 and 700 mb surfaces. Well usually the 700 and even sometimes 850 centers are open right into SNE. So in essence, you have screaming southwest flow aloft. With the H5 and H7 lows tracking west most of the time, it's that classic 6-8hr thump and then dryslot. SWFE usually introduce sleet and a change to coastal rain into the mix due to the strong warm air advection. You are right about the polar high to the north. What the normally does, is cause the low track to hug the SNE coast and cut right across SE MA where the path of least resistance exists. Normally, the secondary low is just getting going and remains weak across coastal SNE so the 850 and 700 lows don't quite close off yet. That usually happens in the Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I was just pointing out how it was possible by describing what the euro was doing....and what would have to happen. Of course saying something is possible vs something that is likely, can be night and day. OK, sounds good. Yeah lots of outcomes still possible. Weaker low, further south, with widespread light overrunning snow/ice probably less likely than stronger low to the west. Small change aloft will make large difference at the surface. My problem was with the idea that climate indices cause weather outcomes. For example, that the NAO can dictate a storm track. That's a classic example of confusing correlation with causation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Looks like a high of 47-48 at home today. Day # 7 in a row of 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Well usually the 700 and even sometimes 850 centers are open right into SNE. So in essence, you have screaming southwest flow aloft. With the H5 and H7 lows tracking west most of the time, it's that classic 6-8hr thump and then dryslot. SWFE usually introduce sleet and a change to coastal rain into the mix due to the strong warm air advection. You are right about the polar high to the north. What the normally does, is cause the low track to hug the SNE coast and cut right across SE MA where the path of least resistance exists. Normally, the secondary low is just getting going and remains weak across coastal SNE so the 850 and 700 lows don't quite close off yet. That usually happens in the Gulf of Maine. When that's taking place, someone along the way gets kind of screwed don't they? Getting robbed of the SWFE precipiation while being too far west to get anything from the redevelopment to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 When that's taking place, someone along the way gets kind of screwed don't they? Getting robbed of the SWFE precipiation while being too far west to get anything from the redevelopment to the east. Usually the system is weak enough to cause that not to happen. Eventually the primary low will weaken and fill in to the west, but by then the secondary low is bombing in the Gulf of Maine and the precip shield has long since been over with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Usually the system is weak enough to cause that not to happen. Eventually the primary low will weaken and fill in to the west, but by then the secondary low is bombing in the Gulf of Maine and the precip shield has long since been over with. Thanks for clarifying. In that case, my optimisim builds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Looks like a high of 47-48 at home today. Day # 7 in a row of 40's I thought you only post your home dew point and BDL's temperatures? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The central CONUS definitely looks like it will want to torch the first week of December. Whether that gets to us or not is another question. The other question is how transient that warm spell is...it might get shunted back south pretty quick with a good reload pattern...hopefully the breakdown of the EPO/WPO ridge is too fast on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The central CONUS definitely looks like it will want to torch the first week of December. Whether that gets to us or not is another question. The other question is how transient that warm spell is...it might get shunted back south pretty quick with a good reload pattern...hopefully the breakdown of the EPO/WPO ridge is too fast on models. I'm leaning towards us warming up, but similar to this past week, we'll probably wedge some cold air in that would keep us closer to normal relative to points southwest. I just don't buy the cold air express comes in and stays... I think we do the up and down thing for a while, but overall still normal to maybe a little below so its all good in the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The central CONUS definitely looks like it will want to torch the first week of December. Whether that gets to us or not is another question. The other question is how transient that warm spell is...it might get shunted back south pretty quick with a good reload pattern...hopefully the breakdown of the EPO/WPO ridge is too fast on models. Check out the end. It bumped up a ridge out west and keeps the ridge in the Aleutians albeit weakly. That's a nice way to shut down the PAC and keep the colder air coming from Canada. The GEFS did this too. MJO FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Check out the end. It bumped up a ridge out west and keeps the ridge in the Aleutians albeit weakly. That's a nice way to shut down the PAC and keep the colder air coming from Canada. The GEFS did this too. MJO FTW? The overall axis of cold from AK to the NE and maintaining the -NAO should keep the torch from heading east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Check out the end. It bumped up a ridge out west and keeps the ridge in the Aleutians albeit weakly. That's a nice way to shut down the PAC and keep the colder air coming from Canada. The GEFS did this too. MJO FTW? I can't see WSI right now...so I only saw through D10 on the ensembles. Its good that it is bumping the ridge back up out west later on in the period. It seems to support the idea that perhaps the MJO may make any warmup short lived...and maybe where we are we avoid much of any warmup...esp if we can lock in a bit of a NAO block....another disagreement on model guidance. Interesting that the December 2000 and December 1983 cold outbreaks occurred in phase 2 of the MJO. Can't forecast that extreme cold again right now, but gives an idea that its a favorable place to be in December for cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The overall axis of cold from AK to the NE and maintaining the -NAO should keep the torch from heading east. I think the milder air does try to approach for a few days, but like Will said..it may try to stay off to our southwest if we can keep the -NAO going. Maybe they'll be some sort of mixed event as the central US warmth tries to push east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The central CONUS definitely looks like it will want to torch the first week of December. Whether that gets to us or not is another question. The other question is how transient that warm spell is...it might get shunted back south pretty quick with a good reload pattern...hopefully the breakdown of the EPO/WPO ridge is too fast on models. Speedos for my week in Cedar Rapids? I've been there for the alternative with a high temperature of -18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Well usually the 700 and even sometimes 850 centers are open right into SNE. So in essence, you have screaming southwest flow aloft. With the H5 and H7 lows tracking west most of the time, it's that classic 6-8hr thump and then dryslot. SWFE usually introduce sleet and a change to coastal rain into the mix due to the strong warm air advection. You are right about the polar high to the north. What the normally does, is cause the low track to hug the SNE coast and cut right across SE MA where the path of least resistance exists. Normally, the secondary low is just getting going and remains weak across coastal SNE so the 850 and 700 lows don't quite close off yet. That usually happens in the Gulf of Maine. Yeah this makes more sense - I suppose to formulate some kind of clad definition might have to include the respective levels remaining open. Will, word - go you your replay as well. I was actually absent from the board for a 6 to 9 month period a while ago and I think this term was coined then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Cape Cod Canal Cutter, front end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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