ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Ahh ok thanks. So after the first week of december give or take, we should start rocking. Pretty cool how we have another snow threat before we even enter what could be a really good december Yeah people need to be patient....it might be till Dec 12-15 until we really get a good pattern....its not going ot happen right after Dec 5....Unlikely anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 could have been 20+ with colder temps, like the storm later that month awful baroclinicity on the north side of the storm No match for the thermal gradient of the 2010-2011 storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 No match for the thermal gradient of the 2010-2011 storms. Unrelated but the storm that stings me the most is Feb 5 -6 2010. I was a few miles away from 20" of snow, but more than anything it has to do with the fact that I thought I would never get to experience a Feb 2003-like storm again in my life...and we were so close to it..and missed it (at least where I am). Feb 2003 will always be the most extreme...still probably what I find to be the most fascinating winter storm set up...but Feb 5-6 2010's set up actually resembles it tremendously...and I didn't think I would see that ,ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 If you go back to eastern and read the December 2008 ice storm discussion leading up to it....you will see me and Ekster discussing how awful the GFS is. He was the one who issued watches for that system around 36h out and he made the comment to paraphrase "I am not even loading the GFS low levels onto AWIPS for this forecast"....lol. One of my favorite threads since I've been on the boards. For people who want to learn about soundings and how important they are rather than just reading a surface and an 850mb map, that is probably the best thing I could point them to....and also the fundamental underlying reasons for those soundings....why a model like the GFS was so wrong. Just read through that the other day, after the Euro started showing that massive damming scenario with this system early on. That was a great thread. Not sure what would be more surprising for people to read, all the NAM and MM5 love or CTBlizz contributing meteorological discussion without the [weenie][/weenie] tags. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I now understand why litchfieldlibations was mentioning ORH today....because BDR had a -1 daily departure today, lol. He uses ORH right now when its the warmest relative to climo, but back in summer when ORH finished below average in June, he was pimping BDR. No longer. I am slightly curious as to why. Because Steve said that none of the big 4 would finish close to -1, pretty simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Let's keep new storm posts to the pinned thread and random obs, other forecasts, etc to here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 This AFD from BOX seems a little dismissive of the GFS. Unless I'm misreading the bolded portion with respect to the 'impact' statement. MODELS ARE NOW CLOSER TO ONE ANOTHER IN THE LOW TRACK THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ESSENTIALLY...WITH THE ZONAL PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTED IN ALL MODELS...THE GFS/ECMWF AND RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS NOW SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND PUSHING THAT LOW FURTHER E THAN ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND GEFS/ GUIDANCE WAS PREVIOUSLY.THEREFORE...THERE IS A BIT MORE SUPPORT FOR A COASTAL STORM RATHER THAN ONE THAT PUSHES INLAND. THIS ALSO FAVORS A COOLER SOLN AS WELL. THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT TRACK DIFFERENCES THOUGH AS THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN BRINGS THE LOW IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK WHILE ECMWF/ECENS ARE MUCH FURTHER OFFSHORE WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON SRN NEW ENGLAND. WILL BEGIN TO TREND GRIDS TOWARD THIS COASTAL/COOL SOLN BUT WITH AN EYE TOWARD UNCERTAINTY IN FINAL IMPACTS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Man the December 1st week is trending quite mild. Luckily the reload looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Man the December 1st week is trending quite mild. Luckily the reload looks good. Timed perfectly for my week in Cedar Rapids! Hopefully, we'll get enough snow to maintain cover until winter's return Per BOX's forecast, my temp should't be changing much from here. My p/c has 36 for my high and I'm currently 34.4/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I now understand why litchfieldlibations was mentioning ORH today....because BDR had a -1 daily departure today, lol. He uses ORH right now when its the warmest relative to climo, but back in summer when ORH finished below average in June, he was pimping BDR. No longer. I am slightly curious as to why. Lol torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Man the December 1st week is trending quite mild. Luckily the reload looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 It looks ugly for a few days, but the reload looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 It looks ugly for a few days, but the reload looks nice. While we may see a relaxation of the bitter cold, snowy pattern..I am having trouble seeing a torch or big mild up. Could we see a few days in the 40's..sure that I can see.. But I see nothing worse than that..And if we establish a nice snowpack that will also mute things..Keep that in mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 While we may see a relaxation of the bitter cold, snowy pattern..I am having trouble seeing a torch or big mild up. Could we see a few days in the 40's..sure that I can see.. But I see nothing worse than that..And if we establish a nice snowpack that will also mute things..Keep that in mind I'm going to jump out on a limb and assume that you haven't even looked at a piece of guidance for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 While we may see a relaxation of the bitter cold, snowy pattern..I am having trouble seeing a torch or big mild up. Could we see a few days in the 40's..sure that I can see.. But I see nothing worse than that..And if we establish a nice snowpack that will also mute things..Keep that in mind Well what happens is that we have a huge trough moving into the west that takes torched, downsloped, Pacific air from the Rockies into the east. ALA last year. But, there will be a front nearby, so it is possible we have a dirty high deal...although it looks less likely compared to a day or two ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The MJO signal is sort of heading to the weaker end of the P1-2 spectrum and a little less emphasis on heading towards the Africa/INDO sectors. Even the Roundy progs seem a little less enthused on stronger IO convection. A good thing for us imo, although don't forget predicting the MJO can be fickle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I'm going to jump out on a limb and assume that you haven't even looked at a piece of guidance for days. Looked at Euro and Gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 HM must have a tingle in his loins when he sees the winds progged to go near neutral and even weakly reverse above 70N..and in between 30-50mb. Those waves are doing their job at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Because Steve said that none of the big 4 would finish close to -1, pretty simple. and they will not, even simpler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 BOS may put up close to a -3 as long as the low doesn't come too close. Mind boggling compared to how it looked a month ago. Maybe like -2.5-2.7 or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 and they will not, even simpler Well ORH might since they don't do well in those airmasses that a strongly inverted...IE raditional cooling, with milder 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Well ORH might since they don't do well in those airmasses that a strongly inverted...IE raditional cooling, with milder 850 temps. I predict ORH will end the month -2.1 , new air masses featuring CAA incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I predict ORH will end the month -2.1 , new air masses featuring CAA incoming. They are -0.4 now. To get to -2.1 in 6 days is monumental to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 What's the difference between these two PNA data sets? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.mon.pna.wg.jan1950-current.ascii.table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Undulatings, now thats cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 End of the week looks darned cold for NNE. Maybe someone in Pittsburgh NH hits 0F? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Undulatings, now thats cool I've neve seen them over that broad an area. That is cool. Where do you find the high res close ups on the NASA site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2012 Author Share Posted November 24, 2012 Anyone else notice that PSU e-wall is down today? Overcast, chilly, snow in the progs from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I've neve seen them over that broad an area. That is cool. Where do you find the high res close ups on the NASA site? ??I IDK I wait for Modis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Anyone notice the 06z GFS. solution right there. Interior pine tree pulverizer. Even C VT, NH, ME get hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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