dryslot Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 That's not a bad track on the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 That's not a bad track on the GEFS All things considered, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 That's not a bad track on the GEFS It intensifies it rather quickly near 40/70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The GEFS track would be a big weenie solution for SNE....esp the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 It intensifies it rather quickly near 40/70. Sub 1000mb in the maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 GFS soundings in the low levels = garbage There would probably be at least some ZR/IP....GFS loves to rip the winds easterly way too far inland and warm everyone up. I don't think the GFS solution would have a ton of mixed precip, but it would probably have some...the airmass prior to it is not weak. During the 2008 ice storm, it had ORH at roughly 40-42F and heavy rain the entire time...even 12 hours before the event. It can be so bad with low level cold sometimes. Okay this pretty much explains it haha...thanks Will. I was confused because it seemed to have that "sleet look" to it but it just never made it below freezing at the surface, but this makes sense. And I never noticed this before...but for N CT at 102 it has WNW winds at 500 to ENE winds close to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 It intensifies it rather quickly near 40/70. Yeah, That would throw quite a bit of qpf back NW into some pretty cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Okay this pretty much explains it haha...thanks Will. I was confused because it seemed to have that "sleet look" to it but it just never made it below freezing at the surface, but this makes sense. And I never noticed this before...but for N CT at 102 it has WNW winds at 500 to ENE winds close to the surface. If you go back to eastern and read the December 2008 ice storm discussion leading up to it....you will see me and Ekster discussing how awful the GFS is. He was the one who issued watches for that system around 36h out and he made the comment to paraphrase "I am not even loading the GFS low levels onto AWIPS for this forecast"....lol. One of my favorite threads since I've been on the boards. For people who want to learn about soundings and how important they are rather than just reading a surface and an 850mb map, that is probably the best thing I could point them to....and also the fundamental underlying reasons for those soundings....why a model like the GFS was so wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yeah, That would throw quite a bit of qpf back NW into some pretty cold air Setting the stage for a sloppy half inch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Where do people get the GGEM these days for fast viewing? The original environment canada site doesn't update fast anymore. http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 So, Do you think the trends going forward here continue to shift back to the NW and more amplified after the last few runs of being weaker, Sheared out and SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Euro was terrific on the mixed tropical systems but I remember the GFS having some very good systems prior. Interesting that the 0z has come back the other way sans the yet to be seen Euro. Game on. Hey this is so much more interesting than arguing over whether it was going to be 60 or 70 in December last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I could definitely see the Euro hardly budging, lol. I remember this happening a few times during 2008-2009. Other guidance was doing all this weird junk and they all would trend the same way at 00z and everyone would wait for the Euro and it wouldn't even budge, lol. And it would be end up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 If you go back to eastern and read the December 2008 ice storm discussion leading up to it....you will see me and Ekster discussing how awful the GFS is. He was the one who issued watches for that system around 36h out and he made the comment to paraphrase "I am not even loading the GFS low levels onto AWIPS for this forecast"....lol. One of my favorite threads since I've been on the boards. For people who want to learn about soundings and how important they are rather than just reading a surface and an 850mb map, that is probably the best thing I could point them to....and also the fundamental underlying reasons for those soundings....why a model like the GFS was so wrong. I actually discovered this board right before that storm and was lurking (hard to believe...closing in on 4 years of lurking, and over 3 of being a member, wow) but I had no idea what any of that meant at the time. As you can see, I pretty much still don't, but I'm learning. I remember many times that you guys made fun of the gfs in the BL come to think of it. I will definitely try to read that thread when I have more time. BTW Will, where do you look at soundings usually? I was using the twisterdata site which seems to be solid, but I didn't know if there was a better one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Approaching montpelier,vt. Gimme upslope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 So, Do you think the trends going forward here continue to shift back to the NW and more amplified after the last few runs of being weaker, Sheared out and SE? Well it probably will have a limit given some of the confluence north of Maine. However, the ridge out west is pretty sharp and the way the high retreats east of Maine tells me the confluence zone north of Maine isn't something like a Feb 2010 block by any means so there may be more room NW. However, lets see what the euro does because that is an important set of guidance. I've even seen these big jumps NW only to retreat SE again. My guess is the euro likely will come NW, but will it be 50 miles or 200 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I actually discovered this board right before that storm and was lurking (hard to believe...closing in on 4 years of lurking, and over 3 of being a member, wow) but I had no idea what any of that meant at the time. As you can see, I pretty much still don't, but I'm learning. I remember many times that you guys made fun of the gfs in the BL come to think of it. I will definitely try to read that thread when I have more time. BTW Will, where do you look at soundings usually? I was using the twisterdata site which seems to be solid, but I didn't know if there was a better one. Plymouth state is good...it updates very fast. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html And scroll down on the left to "individual soundings"....and you can pick the model, hour, and station you want the sounding for. You have to remember that the soundings are model data. So like during the 2008 ice storm, we looked at the GFS and it had this huge warm layer near the sfc with only a bit of cold at 925mb and we laughed at it....while the NAM had way way colder air in the low levels all the way to the sfc and even the Ukie did too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I could definitely see the Euro hardly budging, lol. I remember this happening a few times during 2008-2009. Other guidance was doing all this weird junk and they all would trend the same way at 00z and everyone would wait for the Euro and it wouldn't even budge, lol. And it would be end up being right. I thought about that. It may still be flat as heck..maybe a hint of it coming NW. Hopefully not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Well it probably will have a limit given some of the confluence north of Maine. However, the ridge out west is pretty sharp and the way the high retreats east of Maine tells me the confluence zone north of Maine isn't something like a Feb 2010 block by any means so there may be more room NW. However, lets see what the euro does because that is an important set of guidance. I've even seen these big jumps NW only to retreat SE again. My guess is the euro likely will come NW, but will it be 50 miles or 200 miles? It might really be more of a matter regarding how strong the shortwave is as opposed to the confluence, though I guess they go hand in hand. But the shortwave strength was clearly stronger before the confluence would have had an influence, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Well it probably will have a limit given some of the confluence north of Maine. However, the ridge out west is pretty sharp and the way the high retreats east of Maine tells me the confluence zone north of Maine isn't something like a Feb 2010 block by any means so there may be more room NW. However, lets see what the euro does because that is an important set of guidance. I've even seen these big jumps NW only to retreat SE again. My guess is the euro likely will come NW, but will it be 50 miles or 200 miles? My thinking was some of these pieces coming into the NW should start to be sampled better once they are onshore, Thinking maybe the 0z runs are starting to pick up on it seeing most of the guidance so far have all trended more favorably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 It might really be more of a matter regarding how strong the shortwave is as opposed to the confluence, though I guess they go hand in hand. But the shortwave strength was clearly stronger before the confluence would have had an influence, anyway. Yeah definitely. A stronger s/w will also pump up heights ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Plymouth state is good...it updates very fast. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html And scroll down on the left to "individual soundings"....and you can pick the model, hour, and station you want the sounding for. You have to remember that the soundings are model data. So like during the 2008 ice storm, we looked at the GFS and it had this huge warm layer near the sfc with only a bit of cold at 925mb and we laughed at it....while the NAM had way way colder air in the low levels all the way to the sfc and even the Ukie did too. lol....my own school, thanks. I'm guessing this is probably something that introduce us to sophomore year or something...at least I would hope that they show us them as its a pretty nice resource. Twisterdata takes a while especially with the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Well here we go. Euro is under way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 0z euro almost identical to 12z at h60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2012 Author Share Posted November 24, 2012 Euro's coming north based on 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yes, Euro def coming north than 12z...but by how much? Looks still a bit questionable, but it should def be north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Euro's coming north based on 72. Yes it is more amped then 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2012 Author Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yeah it may not be enough but it's a significant bump northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yeah it may not be enough but it's a significant bump northward. Yes. I don't think it quite gets us...but it definitely shifted north, so we have a ballgame now at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Precip at 90h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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