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On the doorstep of winter....it's coming! Pattern with banter


weathafella

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Man...when Kevin sees the post in the morning....let the AWT, KURO, etc. posts fly.

He'll call for watches to be posted Sunday night regardless of what the euro does...lol.

He may have to be careful what he wishes for, if this gives Will an MLK style thump. It even gives me snow before flipping. Probably a good idea to wait and see what the rest of guidance does.

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I wonder if Pete B will change his forecast.

Flip, flop. This morning he tweeted snow Wednesday. Then post euro tweeted snow cancel. This is after the 7 day last night changed from snow to snow/rain...back to snow and now to nothing/flurries. If the euro gets on board tonight, back to snow tomorrow? I guess that's why you don't change a forecast off of one model run. Granted he did say low confidence on all the changes...but no reason for the constant change IMO.

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The page used to be more for medium range mets when they only cared about temps and not necessarily QPF, but it's silly to just have 12hr QPF.

I remember we got annoyed with the 12 hour QPF in the 12/9/09 event that was a SWFE snow changing to RA event....and the 12 hour QPF maps kept us guessing how much fell before the changeover. I remember it was after that event that you got them to change it.

Yeah, 12h qpf sucks. Not very useful. Funny how we used to use 12h QPF all the time 10-12 years ago.

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So...if a gfs like solution came to play would there be IP/ZR or just snow/rain? I was looking at soundings on twisterdata and it seemed like a snow to rain kind of deal...but I thought SWFE events were usually more mixed bag then that. (A lot of soundings 9-12 hours into the storm at the 850 level had 0C and everything below that above freezing, what would that fall as (snow/rain)?)

Thanks for whoever answers, sorry for the noob question.

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So...if a gfs like solution came to play would there be IP/ZR or just snow/rain? I was looking at soundings on twisterdata and it seemed like a snow to rain kind of deal...but I thought SWFE events were usually more mixed bag then that. (A lot of soundings 9-12 hours into the storm at the 850 level had 0C and everything below that above freezing, what would that fall as (snow/rain)?)

Thanks for whoever answers, sorry for the noob question.

GFS soundings in the low levels = garbage

There would probably be at least some ZR/IP....GFS loves to rip the winds easterly way too far inland and warm everyone up. I don't think the GFS solution would have a ton of mixed precip, but it would probably have some...the airmass prior to it is not weak. During the 2008 ice storm, it had ORH at roughly 40-42F and heavy rain the entire time...even 12 hours before the event. It can be so bad with low level cold sometimes.

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GFS soundings in the low levels = garbage

There would probably be at least some ZR/IP....GFS loves to rip the winds easterly way too far inland and warm everyone up. I don't think the GFS solution would have a ton of mixed precip, but it would probably have some...the airmass prior to it is not weak. During the 2008 ice storm, it had ORH at roughly 40-42F and heavy rain the entire time...even 12 hours before the event. It can be so bad with low level cold sometimes.

First thing I did when I saw the GFS was laugh at the surface and 950 temps over ORH. No way it's that warm if it tracks like that. Definiitely a good thing for people to recognize with these early season storms.

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