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On the doorstep of winter....it's coming! Pattern with banter


weathafella

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Anyone feel/hear Springfield blast? Internet says probably a gas leak, injuries but no fatalities.

Was 3 blocks away at the Y swimming. One helluva blast. Wasn't quite sure what had happened but some folks came in and said it looked like a mushroom cloud where it blew

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On the bright side, the end of the GEFS run at 18z is still following the Euro ensembles in making for a nice looking pattern as we head into the 2nd week of December.

Ensembles look good heading into 2nd week of Dec? Thats good news! I like to pop into this thread from time to time because I enjoy all your guys analysis on the longrange patterns and stuff. Esp since it seems my weather patterns in far eastern MI are as much or more similar to New England than much of rest of the midwest. Getting antsy for some good snow but who isnt? One of the best (imo) LR forecasting guys in my area (Bill Deedler, recently retired from DTX) is forecasting colder than normal with near normal snowfall. Its funny because everyone has that usual November angst everytime a torchy GFS run happens, but if anything it wouldnt surprise me if suppression worries us more than temps this winter. Im not expecting the heavy snowfall of 2007-2011, but I am 99% sure this is NOT another 2011-12 for the eastern third of the U.S.!

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What was the pattern changer like for before the Blizzard of 2005 which hit us hard with over 35" of snow IMBY? I mean I remember Taunton NWS saying it was a southern slider and out to sea, but 48-72 hours out the storm jumped north on the models and after two runs in a row it was certain that we were in for a top 5 snowstorm in history for BOS, PVD and WOR

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What was the pattern changer like for before the Blizzard of 2005 which hit us hard with over 35" of snow IMBY? I mean I remember Taunton NWS saying it was a southern slider and out to sea, but 48-72 hours out the storm jumped north on the models and after two runs in a row it was certain that we were in for a top 5 snowstorm in history for BOS, PVD and WOR

That was a very strong vortmax working across the country with monster confluence to the north. This time around, the vortmax will be nowhere near the strength of that one.

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00z NAM looks like it wants to go nuts with the 2nd s/w after 84h...its digging it so far compared to globals. That would give the system a chance to be something larger....but 84h NAM vs ECMWF, lol...I wonder which one will verify.

I know....look at 300mb..totally digs that s/w, but like you said..It's the NAM in la la land.

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What was the pattern changer like for before the Blizzard of 2005 which hit us hard with over 35" of snow IMBY? I mean I remember Taunton NWS saying it was a southern slider and out to sea, but 48-72 hours out the storm jumped north on the models and after two runs in a row it was certain that we were in for a top 5 snowstorm in history for BOS, PVD and WOR

Euro had it dead on from 6 days out. Better hope it doesn't have it this time.

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Way underdone? Hmmm. I honestly thought it lookd more impressive yesterday for the upslope to go into sun am but now seems like dry air may choke it off sooner. As I say to pfreak, upslope brings back the wonder of youth to snow fall events, never knowing really what may fall

Looks good for 6 to me but damn midwinter conditions with wind chill for Nov 24 th, what else could you ask for. Winds will be a factor though.
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John,

From the Boston Globe

SPRINGFIELD -- A natural gas explosion rocked downtown Springfield on Friday evening, injuring at least 18 people after leveling a downtown strip club in the city’s entertainment district, fire and hospital officials reported.

None of the injuries was considered life-threatening, according to spokeswomen at Baystate Medical Center and Mercy Medical Center in Springfield. Three of the injured were gas workers, two were firefighters, and at least one was a police officer, according to hospital officials and the New England Gas Workers Assocation, a nonprofit that promotes gas safety.

The explosion at 453 Worthington St., happened about 6 p.m., leveling the Scores Gentlemen’s Club, punching a large hole in the street, and blowing shards of glass and other debris through downtown streets. The Springfield Republican website reported that a nearby day care and five-story building were heavily damaged.

It was “just a mushroom cloud of an explosion -- big and orange,’’ said Victor Bruno, who owns Adolfos Italian Restaurant in the district. “It’s just a bad scene.”

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