NJwinter23 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 well inland/lakes cutter fail next week ... at least the -NAO will still be established, was thinking a lakes cutter would be a key player in that last week, but I guess not. things still look good/more favorable after that first week in dec, and were seeing it at the end of the ensembles now as well as Scott was mentioning. Edit: then again, it is still pretty east-based on the euro ensembles through day 10..the real thought was that a lakes cutter/more amplified system would be key in making it more west/davis straight based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Dry patterns are a bad thing in winter...last winter was very dry and most of our terrible winters are. That said, I am not fearing a dry pattern at this point...it definitely looks like a more active pattern in December. But its always something you should be concerned about in the back of your mind. Our recent dry Novembers have had a mixed bag of winters following them here: 2007, 2003, 2001, 1998, 1996, 1990, 1987, 1984, 1978, 1976.....its about half and half good winters and crap winters. Yeah its definitely a concern, but I'm glad some of you long range guys are seeing a more active pattern developing. Dry winters are always a huge concern, even from the standpoint of it just getting boring with no precip events. Cold and dry beats mild and dry in winter . So we'll taste that if forced to Hey that's the first thing we've agreed on today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Well this is exciting. Definitely have a good chance of breaking our record for driest November with a suppressed/OTS storm next week. Persistence, ftl. Cold and dry beats mild and dry in winter . So we'll taste that if forced to 100% agree. Nearing GFS time........can i hear a suppression?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I can't see the actual precip output, but the EC ensembles painted some probs for 0.1" over SNE, but they were quite low. 48hr mean QPF valid 120hr is 0.05" pretty much region wide. 0.1" gets near ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Yeah its definitely a concern, but I'm glad some of you long range guys are seeing a more active pattern developing. Dry winters are always a huge concern, even from the standpoint of it just getting boring with no precip events. Hey that's the first thing we've agreed on today! Cold and dry would work for you you can make snow, I would wrap the pull cord from my sled around my neck and hope it would get sucked back in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Sounds like Euro ens are coming back to reality. We should see that wetter trend cotinue the next couple runs and GFS come south. A compromise like we discussed earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Cold and dry beats mild and dry in winter. Hey that's the first thing we've agreed on today! Lobby for a hockey rink on top of the Gondy, a la Squaw Valley. I'd lace em up. Straight man made gets boring after a couple days, but folks'll pay an arm and a leg for ice time with a view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 48hr mean QPF valid 120hr is 0.05" pretty much region wide. 0.1" gets near ACK. riveting news for snow lovers. looks like i made it to 53f. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Sounds like Euro ens are coming back to reality. We should see that wetter trend cotinue the next couple runs and GFS come south. A compromise like we discussed earlier I don't want no stinkin' compromise--I want my 12z GFS! Actually came in cooler today than yesterday--topped out at 48.8. Bring on the mild down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Some funny stuff posted today. You can tell the dry pattern is getting to everyone. I think it's just boredom. All the talk about long range is great but we've got to get there first and we may or may not have gone through a 1-2+ week of boredom. we'll see about next week after the 0z tonight. I'm kind of enjoying the calm weather for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 riveting news for snow lovers. looks like i made it to 53f. lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Cold and dry would work for you you can make snow, I would wrap the pull cord from my sled around my neck and hope it would get sucked back in Yeah but like Will alluded too... there's only so long I'll put up with man-made snow. I'll give it till like the start of the third week of December before I get annoyed if we aren't seeing any notable up-tick in precipitation events, haha. Historically New England skis on mostly man-made snow through the Christmas Holiday period anyway...but I can tell the locals around here are antsy already because we've been skiing man-made snow since the 10th. What an early start to the season though... I have a feeling this could be a long season overall, just because we are like a solid 2-3 weeks ahead of several recent seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Cold and dry would work for you you can make snow, I would wrap the pull cord from my sled around my neck and hope it would get sucked back in Before you decide to see how far you can make it across the glaze on Sebago Lake could you make a series of disgruntled posts about the uselessness of snow in the SNE flatlands? Recipe for success to break up the monotony on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Lobby for a hockey rink on top of the Gondy, a la Squaw Valley. I'd lace em up. Straight man made gets boring after a couple days, but folks'll pay an arm and a leg for ice time with a view. I'm all for it, haha. I really haven't gotten bored of the man-made snow yet, not really that close to being bored, because the quality so far this year has been amazing. I think the really dry airmass has been helping that out, drying the surface layer of snow out in such a way that it skis exactly like fresh snow after its groomed. Plus we'll get into expansion mode here this week so it'll be nice to continuously get onto new terrain every 1-3 days...for a comparison, we are hoping to open the top-to-bottom Nosedive trail (which is a major one for us) by the end of this week, when last year it opened on December 30th. The comparisons to last year so far are laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Sounds like Euro ens are coming back to reality. We should see that wetter trend cotinue the next couple runs and GFS come south. A compromise like we discussed earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Before you decide to see how far you can make it across the glaze on Sebago Lake could you make a series of disgruntled posts about the uselessness of snow in the SNE flatlands? Recipe for success to break up the monotony on the board. lol Maybe this is finally the December all of New England sees excellent Zamboni smooth ice on area ponds/lakes that remain snow free in a cold/dry pattern. I haven't skated on Lake Champlain in years, but if the bays get nice smooth ice you can skate from town to town up and down the coast, errr shoreline... did that once in College and it was a blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Yeah but like Will alluded too... there's only so long I'll put up with man-made snow. I'll give it till like the start of the third week of December before I get annoyed if we aren't seeing any notable up-tick in precipitation events, haha. you are about to get pounded in the next ten days with upslope, really dude, cry me a river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Congrats NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 There's really only one person I can think of that is directly tied to all of those statements lol.... the massive severe threats, the "deadly heatwaves" and the "endless winter after the 25th". Literally I can't think of anyone else (maybe Toronto blizzard but he just asks questions) that has been riding the endless winter theme now and was also hyping all the deadly heat and storms. His enthusiasm and dramatic angle are frequently very entertaining on here. He has scored a few major weather victories (KFS).. Without him on the boad it would be like listening to Bon Jovi without Jon Bon Jovi or the Rolling Stones without Mick Jagger....just wouldn't be the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Sounds like Euro ens are coming back to reality. We should see that wetter trend cotinue the next couple runs and GFS come south. A compromise like we discussed earlier Congrats NJ I'm not sure the caving of the GFS to the EC was the compromise you're referring to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 GFS to the south. Wagons south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I'm not sure the caving of the GFS to the EC was the compromise you're referring to. Going south would not have been what i would have been hoping for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Wagons whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 What a horrible forecast for the models in the day 5-7 period with this s/w. Finally nice to have some agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 18z gfs Whiff. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 GFS to the south. Wagons south. Dumbfounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Going south would not have been what i would have been hoping for I was using your comment to illustrate the 'compromise' we just witnessed. lol NJ will is the dark horse snow capital of the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 lol Maybe this is finally the December all of New England sees excellent Zamboni smooth ice on area ponds/lakes that remain snow free in a cold/dry pattern. I haven't skated on Lake Champlain in years, but if the bays get nice smooth ice you can skate from town to town up and down the coast, errr shoreline... did that once in College and it was a blast. Yeah 2009/2010 was horrific for snow here, but got so much pond hockey in I can look back on it with some fondness. Consistently below freezing and didn't have to shovel much. Lake Champlain covered in black would be sweet indeed. After about 2 straight days of man-made only skiing I need a 10 day break to start jonesing again. But don't get me wrong the pics you've been posting look great, and wish I was there now. Late Feb/March is usually when I splurge on VTah however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I was using your comment to illustrate the 'compromise' we just witnessed. lol NJ will is the dark horse snow capital of the east. I know who it was meant for, Folks need to be careful what they wish it may come and bite them, This is turning in to a big bag of WTF, 2 days ago it tracked thru Michigan, Today over Georges Bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I'll take it..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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