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On the doorstep of winter....it's coming! Pattern with banter


weathafella

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I guess from trying to knock sense into the threads starting in May with all the faux severe threats and heatwaves that stayed in the MA..up until now with the endless winter theme...it's gotten to be a little ridiculous at times. I used to not care until this year, figuring throwing some science into the threads would ease the weenieing out, but I should know better.

There's really only one person I can think of that is directly tied to all of those statements lol.... the massive severe threats, the "deadly heatwaves" and the "endless winter after the 25th". Literally I can't think of anyone else (maybe Toronto blizzard but he just asks questions) that has been riding the endless winter theme now and was also hyping all the deadly heat and storms.

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ORH all the way back to -0.8 through yesterday closer to 0 after today, unbelievable after a fairly normal September and very warm October all this discussion of how cold its been and so different really means nothing when put up against reality. ORH will easily average above normal for met Autumn, its not even close.

Lmao

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Well December is starting to look quite good after the first week or so. It will ultimately be judged on how much snow there is which is impossible to forecast right now, but the pattern should definitely be favorable for some snow chances after that first week.

Thanks. I didn't know if I should butter up the igloo block maker for midweek per CT, or if I had another week to get the canned goods and extra propane tanks.

I think Scooter is close to a meltdown...everything from last winter to seeing Jerry get 4" while he got a coating on 11/8 is starting to get to him.

Wait until the first baby cold when he hasn't slept in three days and starts ranting like Charlie Sheen after a week of drinking tiger blood.
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Dry patterns are a bad thing in winter...last winter was very dry and most of our terrible winters are. That said, I am not fearing a dry pattern at this point...it definitely looks like a more active pattern in December. But its always something you should be concerned about in the back of your mind.

Our recent dry Novembers have had a mixed bag of winters following them here: 2007, 2003, 2001, 1998, 1996, 1990, 1987, 1984, 1978, 1976.....its about half and half good winters and crap winters.

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Dry patterns are a bad thing in winter...last winter was very dry and most of our terrible winters are. That said, I am not fearing a dry pattern at this point...it definitely looks like a more active pattern in December. But its always something you should be concerned about in the back of your mind.

Our recent dry Novembers have had a mixed bag of winters following them here: 2007, 2003, 2001, 1998, 1996, 1990, 1987, 1984, 1978, 1976.....its about half and half good winters and crap winters.

50/50 chance at a decent winter then

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Everyone talking about the -NAO being why this has trended from a cutter to sheared out wave on the euro, and while it is a major factor, the reason I liked the idea of a cutter or a SWFE nearly a week ago was that the models were showing very strong HP and cross polar flow into the great basin which would've likely resulted in a deeper trough / -PNA look. That hasn't materialized nearly to the extent it was depicted. The onshore pac flow seems to be dominant and preventing amplification, while simultaneously the arctic air isn't as impressive as it might have been. Even though the fast flow might keep us cooler for this one, in the long run I hope that isn't the case for winter. Anecdotally, this area seems to do better (relatively) in gradient patterns as opposed to wrapped up coastal bombs, but after seeing Sandy in the low 950s a winter with a bunch of 1000mb "lows" would be a letdown.

Anyway I had Dec. as +2 and I see no reason to waver from that now. Whatever is going on now, the snowcover/AO mechanism business isn't really valid until late Dec. at the earliest and when the story of 12/13 is written I think that will be the big takeaway.

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Alright alright alright........sooner or later we need to find some consistency in the computer guidance right? It is about time for my next blog post and I am truly delaying writing it because I have no clue what is going to happen with our mid-week system.

Right now if I had to say.......we see at least some precipitation. Probably start as a light drizzle Tuesday afternoon and flip to some flakes for the overnight.......how much.....who the heck knows.

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I love that Aleutian ridge though in combo with a +PNA.

That's an '00-'01, '02-'03 type PAC pattern sans a monster Aleutian low...but concerning the -EPO ridge congealing with the +PNA ridge, that's what those seasons had in common with the current progged pattern.

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