CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Then there is the Canadian ensembls with a low cutting through SNE and then bombing...lol. I'm going to give it until 00z to completely write it off. I've seen the 96-120hr shuffle before. Even if its only a couple of tenths of an inch of melted...fine by me and I'm sure many others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 If the modeling situation goes to form, next week's s/w trough will come in stronger and/or further west in the coming days. This could be the data blackout period as the key shortwave moves through the Pacific. I still like NNE or at least interior areas for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Then there is the Canadian ensembls with a low cutting through SNE and then bombing...lol. I'm going to give it until 00z to completely write it off. I've seen the 96-120hr shuffle before. Even if its only a couple of tenths of an inch of melted...fine by me and I'm sure many others. Obviously 2 or 3 days too early to write anything off. You have too much experience for that kind of over the top statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 You know ...I just get the feeling we're going to have to deal with this crap from the Euro all season long and that it will be excruciatingly annoying at times, and that has to do with it running up these huge warm sectors in the GL and NE regions in its D6+ ranges. The current flat warm bulge that's barely discernible between the MV and lower OV between 48 and 72 hours, 5 days ago was forecast to be this 70F warm air to BUF type warm sector in the Euro. Not with a falling -NAO ... here we are. By D7 the NAO is -2SD and still dropping - I tell you what, if for some reason that open wave shows back up you could almost wonder if the Euro's hell bent on ignoring the -NAO might have something to do with why it lost it. You can't really simultaneously run warm sectors through a -NAO trough - it just doesn't make much sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Do like the odds of seeing at least some mood flakes in the next 7 days or so Palatable difference this fall starting early on, signs were there early this would not be a repeat of last year, now how about some precip. Gulf can open now if it wants to. (Please) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Obviously 2 or 3 days too early to write anything off. You have too much experience for that kind of over the top statement. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 What? He means you writing off a system 4 days out because only 1 model is squashing it when meteorology dictates that model is incorrectly reading the atmosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 He means you writing off a system 4 days out because only 1 model is squashing it when meteorology dictates that model is incorrectly reading the atmosphere Well Edink is another example of reading comprehension issues plaguing this board. 00z suite tonight will be insiode 96 hrs. If all models are flat as a pancake and way OTS, kiss it good bye. If they come back NW, especially the euro...clearly you do not write it off. I just got done stating that you shouldn't completely write it off because I've seen the 96-120 hr shuffle before. So he is completely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Well Edink is another example of reading comprehension issues plaguing this board. 00z suite tonight will be insiode 96 hrs. If all models are flat as a pancake and way OTS, kiss it good bye. If they come back NW, especially the euro...clearly you do not write it off. I just got done stating that you shouldn't completely write it off because I've seen the 96-120 hr shuffle before. So he is completely wrong. I don't think he was writing that to be a jerk. I think he was innocently expressing his thoughts. Complementing you on your experience and questioning why someone of your stature would write off a system 4 days out in a pattern ripe for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I don't think he was writing that to be a jerk. I think he was innocently expressing his thoughts. Complementing you on your experience and questioning why someone of your stature would write off a system 4 days out in a pattern ripe for snow. Because if all models look flat as a pancake tomorrow morning...all models, and the 500 pattern supports it, combined with it being under 96 hrs..you can. There is a difference. Given the model spread right now, I'm not writing it off, even a little light snow. The euro isn't always God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Because if all models look flat as a pancake tomorrow morning...all models, and the 500 pattern supports it, combined with it being under 96 hrs..you can. There is a difference. Given the model spread right now, I'm not writing it off, even a little light snow. The euro isn't always God. And as we speak, the ensembles did make baby steps towards a small improvement...a possibility we mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 @BigJoeBastardi: Having a huge dilemma in that the GFS agrees with my ideas next week as it has the flatter wave and snow where I think #4castntrouble" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 @BigJoeBastardi: Having a huge dilemma in that the GFS agrees with my ideas next week as it has the flatter wave and snow where I think #4castntrouble" I literally laughed hard at your tweet to him telling him no one cares about Europe weather, tweet USA weather only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I think Scooter is close to a meltdown...everything from last winter to seeing Jerry get 4" while he got a coating on 11/8 is starting to get to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 You can read the anxiety in Scooters posts. Waiting for babies to come is stressful. Letting out here is therapeutic though. You guys pick a name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I literally laughed hard at your tweet to him telling him no one cares about Europe weather, tweet USA weather only All he's been tweeting is Europe crap. Who cares about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I think Scooter is close to a meltdown...everything from last winter to seeing Jerry get 4" while he got a coating on 11/8 is starting to get to him. You can read the anxiety in Scooters posts. Waiting for babies to come is stressful. Letting out here is therapeutic though. You guys pick a name? The weenies have been relentless lately. No name yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 All he's been tweeting is Europe crap. Who cares about that Rick Logan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 The weenies have been relentless lately. No name yet. You used to laugh. JB is a good name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Well this is exciting. Definitely have a good chance of breaking our record for driest November with a suppressed/OTS storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I think Scooter is close to a meltdown...everything from last winter to seeing Jerry get 4" while he got a coating on 11/8 is starting to get to him. Yeah he's getting close to putting his head into the Diaper pail and closing the lid forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 You used to laugh. JB is a good name. I was thinking of having Kevin help perform a weenie-tism. On the first snow, as the powder is poured onto his head, the good Rev in his robe and mast bearing weenies, can give thy blessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I think Scooter is close to a meltdown...everything from last winter to seeing Jerry get 4" while he got a coating on 11/8 is starting to get to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 The weenies have been relentless lately. No name yet. Its like this in the early cold season every year I feel like since I've been on these boards for over 7 years. Though it does "seem" a little worse in the past 2 or 3 years versus 6 years ago. I'm not sure why, but perhaps its because we have had multiple October snows recently (and this year's early November snow) and it gives people a false perception of climo. Simple logic says getting snow now on a semi-regular basis before Veterans Day means that by Thanksgiving we should be rocking in a mid-winter pattern...but that would be flawed logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 ORH all the way back to -0.8 through yesterday closer to 0 after today, unbelievable after a fairly normal September and very warm October all this discussion of how cold its been and so different really means nothing when put up against reality. ORH will easily average above normal for met Autumn, its not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Its like this in the early cold season every year I feel like since I've been on these boards for over 7 years. Though it does "seem" a little worse in the past 2 or 3 years versus 6 years ago. I'm not sure why, but perhaps its because we have had multiple October snows recently (and this year's early November snow) and it gives people a false perception of climo. Simple logic says getting snow now on a semi-regular basis before Veterans Day means that by Thanksgiving we should be rocking in a mid-winter pattern...but that would be flawed logic. Just tie the sleeves of your Mighty Mac together around your neck and end it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 @BigJoeBastardi: Having a huge dilemma in that the GFS agrees with my ideas next week as it has the flatter wave and snow where I think #4castntrouble" He doesn't even seem to forecast anymore... just says, "hey I think it'll snow in the I-95 corridor every week from now till March... lets see what models I can cherry pick each day that show that." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Its like this in the early cold season every year I feel like since I've been on these boards for over 7 years. Though it does "seem" a little worse in the past 2 or 3 years versus 6 years ago. I'm not sure why, but perhaps its because we have had multiple October snows recently (and this year's early November snow) and it gives people a false perception of climo. Simple logic says getting snow now on a semi-regular basis before Veterans Day means that by Thanksgiving we should be rocking in a mid-winter pattern...but that would be flawed logic. I guess from trying to knock sense into the threads starting in May with all the faux severe threats and heatwaves that stayed in the MA..up until now with the endless winter theme...it's gotten to be a little ridiculous at times. I used to not care until this year, figuring throwing some science into the threads would ease the weenieing out, but I should know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I guess from trying to knock sense into the threads starting in May with all the faux severe threats and heatwaves that stayed in the MA..up until now with the endless winter theme...it's gotten to be a little ridiculous at times. I used to not care until this year, figuring throwing some science into the threads would ease the weenieing out, but I should know better. Buy me a beer the next time you come up here and I'll 5ppd whoever you'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I guess from trying to knock sense into the threads starting in May with all the faux severe threats and heatwaves that stayed in the MA..up until now with the endless winter theme...it's gotten to be a little ridiculous at times. I used to not care until this year, figuring throwing some science into the threads would ease the weenieing out, but I should know better. Just crawl into the crib and leap out to your death . One jump and its over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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