ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Pretty uninspiring solution from the Euro. We really may not get any storm at all. Just putting that shortwave through a meat grinder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Pretty uninspiring solution from the Euro. We really may not get any storm at all. Just putting that shortwave through a meat grinder. Gonna ride the GGEM/GONAPS on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 No worries . None at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 No worries . None at all This is how you know the system is in big trouble...didn't even try and spin it by saying the GFS and ensembles and the GGEM were all good for us...instead deep down you know that the Euro showing nada is a big blow to this system's chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 This would either be an amplified cutter or a sheared out mess. How sheared out the mess is is the biggest question but it's clear the ceiling with this event isn't that high. The 12z GFS may have been that ceiling. It's not impossible to pull off a GFS solution, but it's clear that the trend is for increasing confluence to shear this thing apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 This is how you know the system is in big trouble...didn't even try and spin it by saying the GFS and ensembles and the GGEM were all good for us...instead deep down you know that the Euro showing nada is a big blow to this system's chances. No seriously, not at all. I remember several times in the past when you've used the term meat grinder only to have us get the snow, sometimes as we know the euro is too aggressive with the confluence. We think this is one of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 No seriously, not at all. I remember several times in the past when you've used the term meat grinder only to have us get the snow, sometimes as we know the euro is too aggressive with the confluence. We think this is one of those times. Give me some examples. It might be too suppressed, but its been trending that way the whole time. Its not like it started out suppressed and then it starts coming in stronger/amplified as we get closer. We still have 4-5 days so it can still come back but it better do so in the next couple of runs...once we get inside of 84 hours on the Euro, its lethal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Give me some examples. It might be too suppressed, but its been trending that way the whole time. Its not like it started out suppressed and then it starts coming in stronger/amplified as we get closer. We still have 4-5 days so it can still come back but it better do so in the next couple of runs...once we get inside of 84 hours on the Euro, its lethal. I can't think of exact systems , but Xmas eve storm on Cape on early 2000's was one.and there's been several clippers over the last 3-4 yrs where the Euro did this and then brought them back as we got closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Give me some examples. It might be too suppressed, but its been trending that way the whole time. Its not like it started out suppressed and then it starts coming in stronger/amplified as we get closer. We still have 4-5 days so it can still come back but it better do so in the next couple of runs...once we get inside of 84 hours on the Euro, its lethal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 No seriously, not at all. I remember several times in the past when you've used the term meat grinder only to have us get the snow, sometimes as we know the euro is too aggressive with the confluence. We think this is one of those times. LOL...and then there are those times when the Euro has the storm to the north and you say it is too weak with the confluence. So you think the GFS is right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Some just never learn with the weenie posts. It's nauseating and no longer cute or funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 LOL...and then there are those times when the Euro has the storm to the north and you say it is too weak with the confluence. So you think the GFS is right? No I think the Euro is too far south and GFS too far north.. Translation.. No synoptic snow for NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Some just never learn with the weenie posts. It's nauseating and no longer cute or funny. is this cute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Hardly a baby step improvement. I still can't believe the difference in that area NE of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 ao is -6 on latest GFS run WOW Should equal at least a -3, which boades well for a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 No I think the Euro is too far south and GFS too far north.. Translation.. No synoptic snow for NNE :weenie: Enjoy your snowstorm as the mayor of fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 -AO tanks which means the arctic is ready to unload. What stopped this from being a lakes cutter is the combination of a -NAO/-AO combination. The PNA west based ridging over the NE PAC and western CONUS would allow phasing, but the confluence and sheared out flow over the Northeastern US and Canada won't allow such phasing, and therefore a cutter is less likely. -AO saves us from torching with a lakes cutter, but instead might be the reason we get a sheared out mess heading our way. The -AO is both our savior and nemesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Hardly a baby step improvement. I still can't believe the difference in that area NE of Maine. Yeah that was not an encouraging run. Still a ways to go, but we definitely would have liked to see better than that. Its still hard to remember how darn early it is. This would be a 2nd November snow event this month if it panned out. In many good seasons we don't get jack until mid-December...like in '07, 12/13/07 was our first storm over a couple inches. '08 it was 12/19/08. Hell, 2010 we had to wait until near Christmas. Its funny though, looking at this run and then the posts over the past day or so...I was thinking: 1. The 240 hour map just made ZNucker go into a seizure. 2. Powderfreak is trying to pretend that man made snow is still awesome after 3 weeks...but is eyeing that lift cable with each storm that misses NNE. 3. Kevin is using up every last ounce of delusion to pretend he isn't concerned about the Euro trending flatter as we get closer. 4. LL is going to start making a blizzard of posts soon on the mild period for early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 what a dry pattern this has become Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Yeah that was not an encouraging run. Still a ways to go, but we definitely would have liked to see better than that. Its still hard to remember how darn early it is. This would be a 2nd November snow event this month if it panned out. In many good seasons we don't get jack until mid-December...like in '07, 12/13/07 was our first storm over a couple inches. '08 it was 12/19/08. Hell, 2010 we had to wait until near Christmas. Its funny though, looking at this run and then the posts over the past day or so...I was thinking: 1. The 240 hour map just made ZNucker go into a seizure. 2. Powderfreak is trying to pretend that man made snow is still awesome after 3 weeks...but is eyeing that lift cable with each storm that misses NNE. 3. Kevin is using up every last ounce of delusion to pretend he isn't concerned about the Euro trending flatter as we get closer. 4. LL is going to start making a blizzard of posts soon on the mild period for early December. And all 4 of those ideas are locks. It is early, but I think people are antsy and you can only rationalize so much. As much as you can throw out stats on late November climo an early December climo...telling people not to worry about a 3 day mild up...they'll always be some that go over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Dude you know our wx is very similar and comparable. Sure ORH is a bit north so a little cooler annually, but the overall temp climo wise is not more than a degree. We should do a 1 yr study. everybody knows your game. 100% emotionally driven forecasts and you use ORH in the winter and BDL in the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Yeah that was not an encouraging run. Still a ways to go, but we definitely would have liked to see better than that. Its still hard to remember how darn early it is. This would be a 2nd November snow event this month if it panned out. In many good seasons we don't get jack until mid-December...like in '07, 12/13/07 was our first storm over a couple inches. '08 it was 12/19/08. Hell, 2010 we had to wait until near Christmas. Its funny though, looking at this run and then the posts over the past day or so...I was thinking: 1. The 240 hour map just made ZNucker go into a seizure. 2. Powderfreak is trying to pretend that man made snow is still awesome after 3 weeks...but is eyeing that lift cable with each storm that misses NNE. 3. Kevin is using up every last ounce of delusion to pretend he isn't concerned about the Euro trending flatter as we get closer. 4. LL is going to start making a blizzard of posts soon on the mild period for early December. How does December look overall? My impression of the pulse here is that we had a good period followed by a warmup before a reload later in the month. I don't know how to read the znucker comment, does it now look better or is it looking worse for December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Yeah that was not an encouraging run. Still a ways to go, but we definitely would have liked to see better than that. Its still hard to remember how darn early it is. 2. Powderfreak is trying to pretend that man made snow is still awesome after 3 weeks...but is eyeing that lift cable with each storm that misses NNE. I'm doing the same as you will...just remembering how early it is. Two of the last 4 years we weren't even open on this date (not even close)....and believe it or not that 3" that fell like 10 days ago is still hanging on above 2K so it looks white riding up the chair. 14" of snow this month on the upper mountain and some upslope coming this weekend...and chances for light snow shower accums this week will make the last week of Novie feel wintery. I will admit I'll feel even better if I can pick up 2-3" at home this weekend from upslope squalls to cover the grass in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 One good way to look at things is viewing anything next week as gravy. Maybe an oppotunity or two of frisbee throwing, and then a pattern that favors both colder wx and storms heading past week 1 in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 How does December look overall? My impression of the pulse here is that we had a good period followed by a warmup before a reload later in the month. I don't know how to read the znucker comment, does it now look better or is it looking worse for December? Well December is starting to look quite good after the first week or so. It will ultimately be judged on how much snow there is which is impossible to forecast right now, but the pattern should definitely be favorable for some snow chances after that first week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 No I think the Euro is too far south and GFS too far north.. Translation.. No synoptic snow for NNE Your a real piece of work, And if anyone could go back to back on WOTY you would be the perfect candidate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Do like the odds of seeing at least some mood flakes in the next 7 days or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Another Nice day, wonder if the local mets will drop the storm chances by the 5pm newscasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 One good way to look at things is viewing anything next week as gravy. Maybe an oppotunity or two of frisbee throwing, and then a pattern that favors both colder wx and storms heading past week 1 in December. You guys seeing signs of a wetter pattern developing? No doubt it will get cold in December, but you mentioned a stormier pattern...just more shortwaves or injections of tropical moisture? It was hard to believe those 16-day GFS progs with under a quarter inch for all of New England but that's exactly what's happening, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 You guys seeing signs of a wetter pattern developing? No doubt it will get cold in December, but you mentioned a stormier pattern...just more shortwaves or injections of tropical moisture? It was hard to believe those 16-day GFS progs with under a quarter inch for all of New England but that's exactly what's happening, lol. I don't see how a possible ridge out west and a residing -NAO don't give us a decent amount of precip. I'm not saying several inches, but the pattern has produced before in previous seasons. Of course not every pattern is equal, but it give us the chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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