HoarfrostHubb Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Banter riling up people...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 uh isn't that the meaning and reason this board was started and existed in the first place? this is a community of many hobbyists, pros, and folks who love to try to forecast. it is a banter discussion. What exactly do you want? homogeneous agreement and met only posts? Of course it is, but it tends to get a little eccentric at times. I understand though...nobody wants to hear words other than cold and snow in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 My thoughts on the next 2 weeks: Upcoming "storm": I still really don't have a clue what this is going to do, but I'd probably lean on the Euro ensembles in this time range. There's a definite chance we could get some wintry precip in the interior. But I can also basically see a whiff and some inverted trough junk snow showers. I think the cutter idea is losing steam quickly. The "mild up" for beginning of December: I do think we warm up for a few days probably between Dec 2 and Dec 5 give or take. It doesn't look like an all out torch with temps in the 60s or anything and it should be relatively short lived. Probably something like when it first hits us, we have 2 days in the 40s and then maybe the last couple days touch or exceed 50. Pattern for beyond Dec 5: This has both ensemble support and support from the weeklies. It looks like we are increasing the chances of a nice reload for a wintry pattern. We first start bringing up the PNA ridge in the west and then perhaps at some point we get a bit of NAO blocking with it. It appears the AK ridge reloads too. I am feeling pretty optimistic for mid-December and perhaps (fingers crossed) right into Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 One thing is for sure, December 2011 isn't walking through that door. It reloads after the first week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Meanwhile has anyone heard from fella? Sounds like Brookline has a real turkey problem, hopefully he's not under a pile of turkeys right now. These are dangerous birds that have been known to rob liquor stores, carjack people and are prolific pick pockets. Brookline is reportedly going to respond to the problem by making the turkeys naturalized citizens in the hopes that it will reduce turkey on people crime. http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2012/11/wild-turkeys-overrun-brookline-mass/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 any word on the weeklies? tried skimming through the last few pages. Didnt see anything though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Meanwhile has anyone heard from fella? Sounds like Brookline has a real turkey problem, hopefully he's not under a pile of turkeys right now. These are dangerous birds that have been known to rob liquor stores, carjack people and are prolific pick pockets. Brookline is reportedly going to respond to the problem by making the turkeys naturalized citizens in the hopes that it will reduce turkey on people crime. http://abcnews.go.co...brookline-mass/ lol and to ABC news . Slow news day? I like how it says they have to station a police officer daily to protect the students from the marauding turkeys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 any word on the weeklies? tried skimming through the last few pages. Didnt see anything though. Week 3 looked awesome. A good -NAO with a +PNA ridge and Aleutian ridge. Week 4 got a little more messy, but verbatim up this way weren't all that bad. I think week 3 is better for you guys down that way. Week 4 probably would be more hostile there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 HPC went with the 0z Euro mean in their discussion "RELIED ON THE 00Z/23 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN STABLE FOR A COUPLE MODEL CYCLES NOW, INDICATING A FLATTER, FASTER FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS. THE 06Z/23 GEFS MEAN TRENDED TOWARD THE ECENS SOLUTION, WITH THE 00Z/23 UKMET ON THE QUICK SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AS WELL. THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN A STRONG PERFORMER AT THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS, IN SOME INSTANCES DEMONSTRATING COMPARABLE SKILL A DAY OR TWO SOONER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECENS MEAN/ECMWF AND THE SLOWER, DEVELOPED MODELS, INCLUDING THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL, IS CLEARING THE OHIO VALLEY OF PRECIPITATION A HALF OR FULL DAY SOONER, WITH LESS MERIDIONAL TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE. THE GFS GUIDANCE IS AN OUTLIER OVER THE FAR WEST WITH THE HANDLING OF THE ENERGY COMING OFF THE PACIFIC, SO WAS NOT CONSIDERED FOR INCLUSION IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THERE, EITHER." http://www.hpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdepd Yeah....this appears different to what they were saying at 3am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 When the pattern first signaled a short term relaxation, I said it would be dirty. Get on my back....I'll take you to the promised land. Some woty worthy posts in the middle of the night...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 When the pattern first signaled a short term relaxation, I said it would be dirty. Get on my back....I'll take you to the promised land. Some woty worthy posts in the middle of the night...lol. Like Poison sang"Talk Dirty To Me" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 When the pattern first signaled a short term relaxation, I said it would be dirty. Get on my back....I'll take you to the promised land. Some woty worthy posts in the middle of the night...lol. I'm ridin the fella... I been in the circle I been on the bus But when it comes to winter weather It's the fella that I trus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Week 3 looked awesome. A good -NAO with a +PNA ridge and Aleutian ridge. Week 4 got a little more messy, but verbatim up this way weren't all that bad. I think week 3 is better for you guys down that way. Week 4 probably would be more hostile there. Thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 lol and to ABC news . Slow news day? I like how it says they have to station a police officer daily to protect the students from the marauding turkeys. Giant nut eating squirrels and now marauding turkeys with a penchant for mayhem. If bears ever seriously set up shop here we'll probably have a national guard unit setup to protect the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 As Jerry says and the lock in no mild up winter pattern looks http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?feature=related&v=xCChxBSRo1Y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 12/1 may be the coldest of all of the 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 What a torch today before the cold settles in...up to 52F at 10:30am, feels very warm out there. BDL at 10am was still reporting 39F and fog at the same time ORH had 50F, but I'm assuming that's cleared out. With a 54/38 today ORH should pull a +7 or +8. Not that much of a torch but feels like it compared to what we've had lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 What a torch today before the cold settles in...up to 52F at 10:30am, feels very warm out there. BDL at 10am was still reporting 39F and fog at the same time ORH had 50F, but I'm assuming that's cleared out. With a 54/38 today ORH should pull a +7 or +8. Not that much of a torch but feels like it compared to what we've had lately. Amazing how close my temps and ORH are. We both had the same highs and low yesterday, and again this morning we were both 38 with mulch frost. At 700 feet and lower it was foggy and in the upper 20's this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Music trivia..what song So come on and have a good time And get blinded out of your mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Amazing how close my temps and ORH are. We both had the same highs and low yesterday, and again this morning we were both 38 with mulch frost. At 700 feet and lower it was foggy and in the upper 20's this morning Don't worry...we'll lose this stubborn high soon and you'll go back to being warmer than ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 any word on the weeklies? tried skimming through the last few pages. Didnt see anything though. Torontoblizzard is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Don't worry...we'll lose this stubborn high soon and you'll go back to being warmer than ORH. Our climo is dead nuts even +- a degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Well, 12z GFS looks better then 06z does, Still have work to do but it would be frozen as it appears colder this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Our climo is dead nuts even +- a degree That's like me saying my climo is the same as Jaffrey, NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Everyone should just lock in this GFS run now and take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 New gfs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 GFS is a nice advisory snow event for most of SNE and CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Nice advisory 3-6" event Tuesday afternoon-night verbatim on the gfs from Central PA to Logan11 to MRG to ORH to Dendrite. A little too warm for the coast/eastern areas? edit: Already posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 This run would be fun for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 ugly day thus far. dense fog earlier has been stubborn to burn off. now just socked in the clouds. 44f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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