Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

On the doorstep of winter....it's coming! Pattern with banter


weathafella

Recommended Posts

Sneaky high to north. Be wary. Look what we just accomplished the last 8 days with a + NAO. A below normal pattern. SFS in deep trouble on massive mild up

Not massive, but a definite break. It is what it is. Enjoy the break it's only 3-4 days or so. We have this every winter. If you get a woody with 30s and 40s and drizzle congrats I guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Also remember what HM has been saying .. A very snowy time in New England the next 20-30 days

You can never know for sure about patterns as sometimes the most perfect ones don't nearly produce as you think they will, but despite the mild up, it's a pretty darn good pattern going forward I think.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not massive, but a definite break. It is what it is. Enjoy the break it's only 3-4 days or so. We have this every winter. If you get a woody with 30s and 40s and drizzle congrats I guess.

Just because you want a nice sunny mild day for when Scooty is born.. Doesn't mean it had to happen. More than likely you'll be racing to Brockton Hospital in a raging snowstorm
Link to comment
Share on other sites

HPC completely tossed the Euro.

HPC went with the 0z Euro mean in their discussion

"RELIED ON THE 00Z/23 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS

AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN STABLE

FOR A COUPLE MODEL CYCLES NOW, INDICATING A FLATTER, FASTER FLOW

ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL

NUMERICAL MODELS. THE 06Z/23 GEFS MEAN TRENDED TOWARD THE ECENS

SOLUTION, WITH THE 00Z/23 UKMET ON THE QUICK SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE

AS WELL. THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN A STRONG PERFORMER AT THE MEDIUM

RANGE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS, IN SOME INSTANCES DEMONSTRATING

COMPARABLE SKILL A DAY OR TWO SOONER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC

MODELS. THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECENS

MEAN/ECMWF AND THE SLOWER, DEVELOPED MODELS, INCLUDING THE GFS AND

GEM GLOBAL, IS CLEARING THE OHIO VALLEY OF PRECIPITATION A HALF OR

FULL DAY SOONER, WITH LESS MERIDIONAL TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE. THE

GFS GUIDANCE IS AN OUTLIER OVER THE FAR WEST WITH THE HANDLING OF

THE ENERGY COMING OFF THE PACIFIC, SO WAS NOT CONSIDERED FOR

INCLUSION IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THERE, EITHER."

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just because you want a nice sunny mild day for when Scooty is born.. Doesn't mean it had to happen. More than likely you'll be racing to Brockton Hospital in a raging snowstorm

Hey I hope...lol, but not that hospital. It really isn't a big deal...don't fear the reaper. It probably will be a dirty high that will give the interior some mixed perhaps..especially near Dendrite. maybe something tries to cut, and then we reload. It's not a big deal. A "warm up" does not have to mean 60s, but this cold airmass will certainly modify at all levels, hence "warm up."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey I hope...lol, but not that hospital. It really isn't a big deal...don't fear the reaper. It probably will be a dirty high that will give the interior some mixed perhaps..especially near Dendrite. maybe something tries to cut, and then we reload. It's not a big deal. A "warm up" does not have to mean 60s, but this cold airmass will certainly modify at all levels, hence "warm up."

When folks like Joe hear warmup he thinks above normal. I honestly don't see a mild up at all. Just a solid wintry pattern to me
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey I hope...lol, but not that hospital. It really isn't a big deal...don't fear the reaper. It probably will be a dirty high that will give the interior some mixed perhaps..especially near Dendrite. maybe something tries to cut, and then we reload. It's not a big deal. A "warm up" does not have to mean 60s, but this cold airmass will certainly modify at all levels, hence "warm up."

When folks see warm up, The assumption is 50-60's

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When folks like Joe hear warmup he thinks above normal. I honestly don't see a mild up at all. Just a solid wintry pattern to me

When folks see warm up, The assumption is 50-60's

And this is a problem with the board. Many people have either reading comprehension issues, or just assume something completely false and then throw it back at you when it doesn't verify or claimed "you said this...."

Unfortunately, a lot of good stuff gets lost in between the weenie posts. I'll be clear, it probably will get above normal during this time. Maybe it's 40s...perhaps touching 50 or low 50s for a day or two, but the dirty high approach is reasonable right now. Could the boundary get stuck to our south, yes it might.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And this is a problem with the board. Many people have either reading comprehension issues, or just assume something completely false and then throw it back at you when it doesn't verify or claimed "you said this...."

Unfortunately, a lot of good stuff gets lost in between the weenie posts. I'll be clear, it probably will get above normal during this time. Maybe it's 40s...perhaps touching 50 or low 50s for a day or two, but the dirty high approach is reasonable right now. Could the boundary get stuck to our south, yes it might.

When i look at a warmup, I think more of being 5-10 degrees above avg which by no means is going to be frisbee weather

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When folks like Joe hear warmup he thinks above normal. I honestly don't see a mild up at all. Just a solid wintry pattern to me

Just like in the summertime when people say it will "cool down" and you want heat/humidity you called it a "mild down"....

I think for your winter spin campaign you need to starting using the phrase "cool up" for temperatures going up but still considered "cool"... or maybe a "chilly up"?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And this is a problem with the board. Many people have either reading comprehension issues, or just assume something completely false and then throw it back at you when it doesn't verify or claimed "you said this...."

Unfortunately, a lot of good stuff gets lost in between the weenie posts. I'll be clear, it probably will get above normal during this time. Maybe it's 40s...perhaps touching 50 or low 50s for a day or two, but the dirty high approach is reasonable right now. Could the boundary get stuck to our south, yes it might.

Wait you think everyone thinks like Kevin? problem with the BOARD? averages are in the 38-40 degree range. Way out there, if the AO is as tanked as it is progged I would hedge we would be north of the boundary in the dirty high but as you say Pac air floods so who knows, very typical anyways.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And this is a problem with the board. Many people have either reading comprehension issues, or just assume something completely false and then throw it back at you when it doesn't verify or claimed "you said this...."

I don't think its that so much as just the different spin agendas of various posters. Always have to spin it one extreme or another.

I think most on here fully comprehend what is being said, they just want to get a rise out of the opposite camp.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wait you think everyone thinks like Kevin? problem with the BOARD? averages are in the 38-40 degree range. Way out there, if the AO is as tanked as it it is progged I would hedge we would be north of the boundary in the dirty high but as you say Pac air floods so who knows, very typical anyways.

No he's saying folks like Joe. Not me. Lol woosh
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think its that so much as just the different spin agendas of various posters. Always have to spin it one extreme or another.

I think most on here fully comprehend what is being said, they just want to get a rise out of the opposite camp.

You are going to get pounded harder than the Jets did in 59 seconds.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't think its that so much as just the different spin agendas of various posters. Always have to spin it one extreme or another.

I think most on here fully comprehend what is being said, they just want to get a rise out of the opposite camp.

Yeah, but it's spun around by a lot of people. You have posts that are legit and trying to spell out the longer range, but it gets buried by weenie posts, pics, and models that fit the weenie agenda. And this doesn't have to be the winter weenies..it can be the torch mongerers too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, but it's spun around by a lot of people. You have posts that are legit and trying to spell out the longer range, but it gets buried by weenie posts, pics, and models that fit the weenie agenda. And this doesn't have to be the winter weenies..it can be the torch mongerers too.

uh isn't that the meaning and reason this board was started and existed in the first place? this is a community of many hobbyists, pros, and folks who love to try to forecast. it is a banter discussion. What exactly do you want? homogeneous agreement and met only posts?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...