CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Sneaky high to north. Be wary. Look what we just accomplished the last 8 days with a + NAO. A below normal pattern. SFS in deep trouble on massive mild up Not massive, but a definite break. It is what it is. Enjoy the break it's only 3-4 days or so. We have this every winter. If you get a woody with 30s and 40s and drizzle congrats I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 forgot about the clarus road network http://www.clarus-system.com/ClarusMap.html?lat=42.4&lon=-72.2&zoom=9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Also remember what HM has been saying .. A very snowy time in New England the next 20-30 days You can never know for sure about patterns as sometimes the most perfect ones don't nearly produce as you think they will, but despite the mild up, it's a pretty darn good pattern going forward I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Not massive, but a definite break. It is what it is. Enjoy the break it's only 3-4 days or so. We have this every winter. If you get a woody with 30s and 40s and drizzle congrats I guess. Just because you want a nice sunny mild day for when Scooty is born.. Doesn't mean it had to happen. More than likely you'll be racing to Brockton Hospital in a raging snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Right on fire i see this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 HPC completely tossed the Euro. HPC went with the 0z Euro mean in their discussion "RELIED ON THE 00Z/23 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN STABLE FOR A COUPLE MODEL CYCLES NOW, INDICATING A FLATTER, FASTER FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS. THE 06Z/23 GEFS MEAN TRENDED TOWARD THE ECENS SOLUTION, WITH THE 00Z/23 UKMET ON THE QUICK SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AS WELL. THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN A STRONG PERFORMER AT THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS, IN SOME INSTANCES DEMONSTRATING COMPARABLE SKILL A DAY OR TWO SOONER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECENS MEAN/ECMWF AND THE SLOWER, DEVELOPED MODELS, INCLUDING THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL, IS CLEARING THE OHIO VALLEY OF PRECIPITATION A HALF OR FULL DAY SOONER, WITH LESS MERIDIONAL TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE. THE GFS GUIDANCE IS AN OUTLIER OVER THE FAR WEST WITH THE HANDLING OF THE ENERGY COMING OFF THE PACIFIC, SO WAS NOT CONSIDERED FOR INCLUSION IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THERE, EITHER." http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Just because you want a nice sunny mild day for when Scooty is born.. Doesn't mean it had to happen. More than likely you'll be racing to Brockton Hospital in a raging snowstorm Hey I hope...lol, but not that hospital. It really isn't a big deal...don't fear the reaper. It probably will be a dirty high that will give the interior some mixed perhaps..especially near Dendrite. maybe something tries to cut, and then we reload. It's not a big deal. A "warm up" does not have to mean 60s, but this cold airmass will certainly modify at all levels, hence "warm up." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Well it clouded up quickly here so much for a sunny 60 plus half naked hackey sack on the green day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Hey I hope...lol, but not that hospital. It really isn't a big deal...don't fear the reaper. It probably will be a dirty high that will give the interior some mixed perhaps..especially near Dendrite. maybe something tries to cut, and then we reload. It's not a big deal. A "warm up" does not have to mean 60s, but this cold airmass will certainly modify at all levels, hence "warm up." When folks like Joe hear warmup he thinks above normal. I honestly don't see a mild up at all. Just a solid wintry pattern to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Hey I hope...lol, but not that hospital. It really isn't a big deal...don't fear the reaper. It probably will be a dirty high that will give the interior some mixed perhaps..especially near Dendrite. maybe something tries to cut, and then we reload. It's not a big deal. A "warm up" does not have to mean 60s, but this cold airmass will certainly modify at all levels, hence "warm up." When folks see warm up, The assumption is 50-60's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I honestly don't see a mild up at all. Just a solid wintry pattern to me You don't say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 When folks like Joe hear warmup he thinks above normal. I honestly don't see a mild up at all. Just a solid wintry pattern to me When folks see warm up, The assumption is 50-60's And this is a problem with the board. Many people have either reading comprehension issues, or just assume something completely false and then throw it back at you when it doesn't verify or claimed "you said this...." Unfortunately, a lot of good stuff gets lost in between the weenie posts. I'll be clear, it probably will get above normal during this time. Maybe it's 40s...perhaps touching 50 or low 50s for a day or two, but the dirty high approach is reasonable right now. Could the boundary get stuck to our south, yes it might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Nice Sat pic of the valley fog hanging tough shows up well on Mesomap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Maybe we pull an ENE special next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 And this is a problem with the board. Many people have either reading comprehension issues, or just assume something completely false and then throw it back at you when it doesn't verify or claimed "you said this...." Unfortunately, a lot of good stuff gets lost in between the weenie posts. I'll be clear, it probably will get above normal during this time. Maybe it's 40s...perhaps touching 50 or low 50s for a day or two, but the dirty high approach is reasonable right now. Could the boundary get stuck to our south, yes it might. When i look at a warmup, I think more of being 5-10 degrees above avg which by no means is going to be frisbee weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 When folks like Joe hear warmup he thinks above normal. I honestly don't see a mild up at all. Just a solid wintry pattern to me Just like in the summertime when people say it will "cool down" and you want heat/humidity you called it a "mild down".... I think for your winter spin campaign you need to starting using the phrase "cool up" for temperatures going up but still considered "cool"... or maybe a "chilly up"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Nice Sat pic of the valley fog hanging tough shows up well on Mesomap Mine has evaporated off now. Up to 31F after a low of 24F. The heavy frost has already melted in the sun touched areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 And this is a problem with the board. Many people have either reading comprehension issues, or just assume something completely false and then throw it back at you when it doesn't verify or claimed "you said this...." Unfortunately, a lot of good stuff gets lost in between the weenie posts. I'll be clear, it probably will get above normal during this time. Maybe it's 40s...perhaps touching 50 or low 50s for a day or two, but the dirty high approach is reasonable right now. Could the boundary get stuck to our south, yes it might. Wait you think everyone thinks like Kevin? problem with the BOARD? averages are in the 38-40 degree range. Way out there, if the AO is as tanked as it is progged I would hedge we would be north of the boundary in the dirty high but as you say Pac air floods so who knows, very typical anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Maybe we pull an ENE special next week. you might have an OES event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 And this is a problem with the board. Many people have either reading comprehension issues, or just assume something completely false and then throw it back at you when it doesn't verify or claimed "you said this...." I don't think its that so much as just the different spin agendas of various posters. Always have to spin it one extreme or another. I think most on here fully comprehend what is being said, they just want to get a rise out of the opposite camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Wait you think everyone thinks like Kevin? problem with the BOARD? averages are in the 38-40 degree range. Way out there, if the AO is as tanked as it it is progged I would hedge we would be north of the boundary in the dirty high but as you say Pac air floods so who knows, very typical anyways. No he's saying folks like Joe. Not me. Lol woosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Ride the EURO...and its light accums every day. IF YOU BELIEVE THE EURO RUN IN THE LITERAL...ON AND OFF SHSN ACTIVITY IN THE LAKE BELTS AND NRN MTNS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK NRN STREAM IMPULSES COULD LAY DOWN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EACH DAY WHICH WOULD BE WELCOME FOR MANY. Yes, BTV, that would be very welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I don't think its that so much as just the different spin agendas of various posters. Always have to spin it one extreme or another. I think most on here fully comprehend what is being said, they just want to get a rise out of the opposite camp. You are going to get pounded harder than the Jets did in 59 seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 No he's saying folks like Joe. Not me. Lol woosh Of course he was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 You are going to get pounded harder than the Jets did in 59 seconds. 52....lol, I hope Laron Landry remembers where he placed his check book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I don't think its that so much as just the different spin agendas of various posters. Always have to spin it one extreme or another. I think most on here fully comprehend what is being said, they just want to get a rise out of the opposite camp. Yeah, but it's spun around by a lot of people. You have posts that are legit and trying to spell out the longer range, but it gets buried by weenie posts, pics, and models that fit the weenie agenda. And this doesn't have to be the winter weenies..it can be the torch mongerers too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 You are going to get pounded harder than the Jets did in 59 seconds. ever been pounded by a ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Pea soup in the valley, totally clear just above. Last night and today it was 7 degrees warmer at my house on the hill than 400' lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Yeah, but it's spun around by a lot of people. You have posts that are legit and trying to spell out the longer range, but it gets buried by weenie posts, pics, and models that fit the weenie agenda. And this doesn't have to be the winter weenies..it can be the torch mongerers too. uh isn't that the meaning and reason this board was started and existed in the first place? this is a community of many hobbyists, pros, and folks who love to try to forecast. it is a banter discussion. What exactly do you want? homogeneous agreement and met only posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 ever been pounded by a ? Well I could include the Cowboys getting pounded too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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