Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Eduggles FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html Roundy would approve of the entire 12z gfs run today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 But noticably deeper trough and vortmax now deep into the south. Yesterday this looked like a relatively weak wave. Today it looks pretty potent. The recent trend is toward a much more significant east coast storm on the GFS. Mostly rain for now in terms of actual weather impact, but if the modeling continues the amplifying trend, it's going to have a tendency to redevelop a surface low further southeast after the initial Ohio Valley low weakens. That could turn things much more wintry, esp if there ends up being less ridging ahead of the trough. 6z gfs was stronger than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I burn pellets. Unfortunately no pellets fell in my yard during sandy. Splitting trees up that small,is time consuming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 6z gfs was stronger than the 12z. Well stronger in terms of the eventual cyclogenesis, yes... Slightly more potent vortmax, and a mid-level flow structure that led to an earlier tilting of the trough. But 12z is nearly as potent and clearly further south. In fact the vortmax gets almost to the Gulf coast at 162hr! The exact evolution will change dozens of times in the coming days. But the trend over the past 4 runs of the GFS is significant. If somebody has the ability to animate the runs, it's pretty stark. The amplitude of the longwave trough that develops has gotten larger and sharper. This introduces the possibility of a strong low center as opposed to the previous idea of a relatively weak, moisture laden wave. If we get lucky with the evolution and timing, a coastal low is not impossible. The 12z GFS never develops a good mid-level circulation, unlike the previous run, which had more precipication back into the cold side. I think this setup favors interior areas (noting the downstream flow), esp NNE, but with large changes run to run, it seems the possible range of options is wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 That GFS run beyond 240 hours will have NZucker tossing and turning in his sleep tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 That GFS run beyond 240 hours will have NZucker tossing and turning in his sleep tonight. LOL, I think we'll have a gradient issue nearby as the PAC jet tries to battle back, but tough to say what impact it has here specifically. Hopefully P1 and 2 do their magic and pop a ridge out west like what's hinted at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The 12z GEFS look quite a bit cooler than the Operational. Wish I had the frames in between these two for the storm. The primary low starts to decay at hour 156 And it pops a coastal at hour 168. Individual ensemble members should definitely be interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Well stronger in terms of the eventual cyclogenesis, yes... Slightly more potent vortmax, and a mid-level flow structure that led to an earlier tilting of the trough. But 12z is nearly as potent and clearly further south. In fact the vortmax gets almost to the Gulf coast at 162hr! The exact evolution will change dozens of times in the coming days. But the trend over the past 4 runs of the GFS is significant. If somebody has the ability to animate the runs, it's pretty stark. The amplitude of the longwave trough that develops has gotten larger and sharper. This introduces the possibility of a strong low center as opposed to the previous idea of a relatively weak, moisture laden wave. If we get lucky with the evolution and timing, a coastal low is not impossible. The 12z GFS never develops a good mid-level circulation, unlike the previous run, which had more precipication back into the cold side. I think this setup favors interior areas (noting the downstream flow), esp NNE, but with large changes run to run, it seems the possible range of options is wide. Its tough for me to envision the trough axis being far enough east at the time it goes negative to give us a mostly frozen coastal storm for New England...though its not impossible. If we can get the confluence to our northeast stronger in subsequent model runs then we may have a shot at that. I still think our best chance at frozen is having more of an overrunning wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 54 and sunny, kfs ftl:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Couple of decent GEFS members, but most are cutters with timing differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 54 and sunny, kfs ftl:( Looks like 50s the next 2 days in the lower els. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Couple of decent GEFS members, but most are cutters with timing differences. Yeah prob like 2/3rds of the members have Stowe employees wondering where all the snow gun hoses went....a few are messy type events with probably some CAD icing/sleet....and then a few full blown snowstorm type solutions as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The 12z GEFS look quite a bit cooler than the Operational. Wish I had the frames in between these two for the storm. The primary low starts to decay at hour 156 And it pops a coastal at hour 168. Individual ensemble members should definitely be interesting to see. The mean suggests a major storm is at least on the table. That's a pretty good look for 6 days out. There is frontside overrunning and coastal wraparound potential to keep an eye on, which helps ease the boredom of this recent stretch of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Yeah prob like 2/3rds of the members have Stowe employees wondering where all the snow gun hoses went....a few are messy type events with probably some CAD icing/sleet....and then a few full blown snowstorm type solutions as well. There's something with these statements that I can't stop laughing about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Its tough for me to envision the trough axis being far enough east at the time it goes negative to give us a mostly frozen coastal storm for New England...though its not impossible. If we can get the confluence to our northeast stronger in subsequent model runs then we may have a shot at that. I still think our best chance at frozen is having more of an overrunning wave. I agree with you. I think NNY and NNE are in a much better position. And I wouldn't be surprised to see a cutter go through or west of there. That's what the largescale features suggest to me. As always, the devil is in the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 More changes in the models. GEFS now really bring back a stronger Aleutian ridge and then try to build the west coast ridge we mentioned towards the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Yeah we always thought Sw ct would hit low 50's so no surprises there. Ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Let the good times roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Yeah we always thought Sw ct would hit low 50's so no surprises there. Ugly Well the average high there is still low 50s this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I burn pellets. Unfortunately no pellets fell in my yard during sandy. Splitting trees up that small,is time consuming LOL Lots of tiny logs. Well stronger in terms of the eventual cyclogenesis, yes... Slightly more potent vortmax, and a mid-level flow structure that led to an earlier tilting of the trough. But 12z is nearly as potent and clearly further south. In fact the vortmax gets almost to the Gulf coast at 162hr! The exact evolution will change dozens of times in the coming days. But the trend over the past 4 runs of the GFS is significant. If somebody has the ability to animate the runs, it's pretty stark. The amplitude of the longwave trough that develops has gotten larger and sharper. This introduces the possibility of a strong low center as opposed to the previous idea of a relatively weak, moisture laden wave. If we get lucky with the evolution and timing, a coastal low is not impossible. The 12z GFS never develops a good mid-level circulation, unlike the previous run, which had more precipication back into the cold side. I think this setup favors interior areas (noting the downstream flow), esp NNE, but with large changes run to run, it seems the possible range of options is wide. I agree to a point. One thing though is that I don't think it's possible to talk about the GFStrends--unless you're speaking specificially of the amplitude of the trough. That might be true. But I don't think the bouncing around of the placement of the trough can be defined as a trend. Unless of course, one defines the trend of the GFS to be incosistent. Regardless, I'm fairly pleased by this run. Might get a little something on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Yeah we always thought Sw ct would hit low 50's so no surprises there. Ugly I think more than SW CT will get into the 50s over the next 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Yeah we always thought Sw ct would hit low 50's so no surprises there. Ugly lol sw ct only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 That fropa Fri night keeps getting earlier on the Euro. btw...congrats INL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I think more than SW CT will get into the 50s over the next 2 days. Everyone is going to torch a bit on Friday before the front comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 That fropa Fri night keeps getting earlier on the Euro. btw...congrats INL Just a WNW wind with its passage here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Not with low clouds and fog tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Not with low clouds and fog tomorrow Just curious, But why do you not have your davis temp sensor in your sig for your BY temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 This may be a more interesting Euro run for next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 There's something with these statements that I can't stop laughing about. I think they are hilarious too...I'm more worried about the folks that work at Mt Tolland Resort though But I got my freak out done in early November and look how that turned out? Up here we are having the best November skiing since I started here even if it is man made...just having -1 to -2 for the month makes a world of difference this time of year in snowmaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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