dryslot Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Torching here 52.3F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 On 11/23/2012 at 4:50 PM, CT Blizz said: When you look at progs and you see a neggy NAO , strong confluence, and strong HP in Eastern Canada, you never ever forecast a cutter. Minimally you get a secondary reflection locking in ll cold over interior and more often than not the storm ends becoming a strong coastal or good overrunning snow event that scoots south This happens quite a bit as the -NAO tries to get established. It depends on several factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 On 11/23/2012 at 4:54 PM, CoastalWx said: This happens quite a bit as the -NAO tries to get established. It depends on several factors. 2010 to be specific, 2 massive cutters in early mid December if I remember correctly before the winter hounds were released? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 On 11/23/2012 at 4:55 PM, litchfieldlibations said: 2010 to be specific, 2 massive cutters in early mid December if I remember correctly before the winter hounds were released? Yes, It was dreadful, But turned it around the last 2 weeks, We had 22.5" in a 5 day period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 61 torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Looks like the GEFS shoot out along the 40th parallel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Only the Canadian can shift 1500 miles in 36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 Snow numbers on mex showing up for. BOS/BDL similar and ORH more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 On 11/23/2012 at 5:01 PM, CoastalWx said: Looks like the GEFS shoot out along the 40th parallel. Nice to live at 42N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 On 11/23/2012 at 5:05 PM, weathafella said: Nice to live at 42N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 On 11/23/2012 at 4:54 PM, CoastalWx said: This happens quite a bit as the -NAO tries to get established. It depends on several factors. I haven't looked at anything in the last two days and I'm on my phone right now, but I agree with you here. What I've been saying for a while is that this storm is coming during the developing phase of a -NAO, which does not rule out a cutter. Historically, this is actually a common period for a GL cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 On 11/23/2012 at 5:05 PM, weathafella said: Nice to live at 42N I wouldn't mind a little white right now, but such a low confidence forecast. If there is going to be an increase in confidence, you'll need the euro to come NW. I wouldn't be shocked if it made at least baby steps NW. I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 On 11/23/2012 at 5:06 PM, wxwatcher91 said: I haven't looked at anything in the last two days and I'm on my phone right now, but I agree with you here. What I've been saying for a while is that this storm is coming during the developing phase of a -NAO, which does not rule out a cutter. Historically, this is actually a common period for a GL cutter That's what a lot of folks here was talking about the last few days, Some of the models had this system cutting thru Michigan only a few days back when it was a phase bomb over the ohio valley, There was considerable model spread as well as its ensemble members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I see many outlets going for low 40s here Sunday..like 43F. I'm gonna take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Kevin I've been honking wintry potential next tue/wed for quite some time and you give me no credit lol. Will I agree with your post about upcoming pattern. I'm excited about next 3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 On 11/23/2012 at 5:07 PM, CoastalWx said: I wouldn't mind a little white right now, but such a low confidence forecast. If there is going to be an increase in confidence, you'll need the euro to come NW. I wouldn't be shocked if it made at least baby steps NW. I could be wrong though. The euro being so flat and weak is disturbing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 On 11/23/2012 at 5:00 PM, Bostonseminole said: 61 torch! AIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 On 11/23/2012 at 5:06 PM, wxwatcher91 said: I haven't looked at anything in the last two days and I'm on my phone right now, but I agree with you here. What I've been saying for a while is that this storm is coming during the developing phase of a -NAO, which does not rule out a cutter. Historically, this is actually a common period for a GL cutter That's why we were saying not to fret on a cutter. Sure, I hate them and I would rather not have them..but they can sometimes be productive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 On 11/23/2012 at 5:10 PM, CT Rain said: Kevin I've been honking wintry potential next tue/wed for quite some time and you give me no credit lol. Will I agree with your post about upcoming pattern. I'm excited about next 3 weeks. Overall yes but a 44 and raindrops / snowflake on air doesn't exactly scream winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 On 11/23/2012 at 5:14 PM, CT Blizz said: Overall yes but a 44 and raindrops / snowflake on air doesn't exactly scream winter lol His forecast yesterday is pretty much what you should have so far out. There was and still is too much uncertainty to throw up snow and wind icons..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 The EC ensembles rebuild that ridge which imo is awesome to see because it may allow the cold to dump into Canada and the PNA ridge shoots it down into the US. To be honest, I'm more focused on that right now. I like it as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Meanwhile stuck at 48 here. Zero mixing despite sun. Cooler today than yesterday so far, but a couple of hours left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 On 11/23/2012 at 5:20 PM, CoastalWx said: Meanwhile stuck at 48 here. Zero mixing despite sun. Cooler today than yesterday so far, but a couple of hours left. Maybe I'll end up warmer than you...up to 49F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 On 11/23/2012 at 5:22 PM, dendrite said: Maybe I'll end up warmer than you...up to 49F. It's more inverted than I thought. BUFKIT yesterday did show it, but I thought 50s here. Maybe we get a little pre frontal bounce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 On 11/23/2012 at 5:15 PM, CoastalWx said: His forecast yesterday is pretty much what you should have so far out. There was and still is too much uncertainty to throw up snow and wind icons..lol. maybe but I would have thrown up 35 for the high not mid 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 On 11/23/2012 at 5:06 PM, wxwatcher91 said: I haven't looked at anything in the last two days and I'm on my phone right now, but I agree with you here. What I've been saying for a while is that this storm is coming during the developing phase of a -NAO, which does not rule out a cutter. Historically, this is actually a common period for a GL cutter Yeah, the really amplified systems tend to cut in this regime. But the confluence helps to shear the shortwave out and prevent too much amplification. The chances of a big snow event are pretty low in this pattern but an advisory snow in the interior is certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 WOW Vt mega torching, as well as many other areas outside of far eastern ne. Ironically its the higher terrain in many cases that is torching, thanks to the inversion. Torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 clouds breaking here finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 On 11/23/2012 at 5:24 PM, CoastalWx said: It's more inverted than I thought. BUFKIT yesterday did show it, but I thought 50s here. Maybe we get a little pre frontal bounce. Yeah maybe...I bet some areas recover a little more too. I was 6F warmer than CON at 17z as they were just coming out of the soup. They will probably end up with a max near me when all is said and done.51F now...soaring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 BOS makes a run at -3 for November by months end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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