weathafella Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Cold arrives over the weekend, settles in a week or so later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Dreams of Dec 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 21, 2012 Author Share Posted November 21, 2012 Dreams of Dec 5th Obama will sue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 In response to Will, I thought he was thinking that and a post band or two, but it still looks rather unimpressive...at least right now. Maybe P-Town gets clipped with a SHSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 1618 is going to be a problem the next few days. The solar flux is back up today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Mostly sunny 51 degrees, gorgeous day allowing wood operations to continue. Nice haul of Red Oak yesterday and two loads of Beech today compliments of Hurricane Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 1618 is going to be a problem the next few days. The solar flux is back up today.... That damn sun--ruining a good winter spell. At least that may give me time to size the 20 trees I have lying out back. Signs of a delayed approach to winter: 1) switched to my snows this morning 2) snowblower's getting repaired/tuned up on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 GFS looked a little better than the NAM for a few flurries on Sat afternoon...but that still needs a lot of improvement to get anything like squalls or even scattered moderate snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 GFS looked a little better than the NAM for a few flurries on Sat afternoon...but that still needs a lot of improvement to get anything like squalls or even scattered moderate snow showers. I wouldn't mind a few flakes..just to get in the holiday mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Mostly sunny 51 degrees, gorgeous day allowing wood operations to continue. Nice haul of Red Oak yesterday and two loads of Beech today compliments of Hurricane Sandy. The one's I'm working on now are about 45% cherry, 45% maple, 10% ash. I suppose I could have sold them off and bought firewood, but where's the fun (or exercise) in that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 That damn sun--ruining a good winter spell. At least that may give me time to size the 20 trees I have lying out back. Signs of a delayed approach to winter: 1) switched to my snows this morning 2) snowblower's getting repaired/tuned up on Monday haha... this is its final chance before it goes into a quieter period late Nov/early Dec. I think even if it does reach Smax levels, it won't ruin the December potential. The vortex is already strong and very cold and the waves that are upwelling (wave 2) are already in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I've received those KI of 4 values in my email from work, so not nearly as strong as the last solar event anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The one's I'm working on now are about 45% cherry, 45% maple, 10% ash. I suppose I could have sold them off and bought firewood, but where's the fun (or exercise) in that? I agree Mike! I love splitting the wood by hand, gives me something to do during Jan and Feb. I burned some cherry last night house smelled so good and when you walked outside. Hoping to find some Ash later today, so nice to split and almost immediately burn it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I wouldn't mind a few flakes..just to get in the holiday mood. This board already provides enough flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 GFS looked a little better than the NAM for a few flurries on Sat afternoon...but that still needs a lot of improvement to get anything like squalls or even scattered moderate snow showers. "Little" being the operative word on that post. But, like Scott says, a couple flakes are good for the holiday spirits. Long time between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year--lots of time for storminess (or frustrations!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 In response to Will, I thought he was thinking that and a post band or two, but it still looks rather unimpressive...at least right now. Maybe P-Town gets clipped with a SHSN. Well front comes thru Fri nite as we had discussed. I'm talking post frontal with instability snow showers and squalls popping in the cold AirMass as arctic air pours in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Well front comes thru Fri nite as we had discussed. I'm talking post frontal with instability snow showers and squalls popping in the cold AirMass as arctic air pours in It looks like the type of day where you get streamers of CU coming in and maybe a flurry or two, but mostly meh. I suppose you never can rule out some rotting renegade streamer moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I've received those KI of 4 values in my email from work, so not nearly as strong as the last solar event anyways. We'll see what this sunspot group can do between today and Friday. I don't think the stratosphere can get any colder in and around the vortex so I'm not too concerned about the proton flux from any flare. My biggest worry at this point would be if some how the solar activity aided in warming the Tropics and Subtropics and reduced the upward wave flux from Eurasia. The stratopause levels are still exciting and there are definitely signs of a growing top-down signal from upwelling equator--> N.P. waves on the modeling. This is something we don't want to see get disturbed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I agree Mike! I love splitting the wood by hand, gives me something to do during Jan and Feb. I burned some cherry last night house smelled so good and when you walked outside. Hoping to find some Ash later today, so nice to split and almost immediately burn it! With 20 trees with logs 18" in diameter, I'll stick to my splitter. But lifting and rolling those big logs is a good workout just the same. Shouldn't yours be covered in snow in January?? lol You're burning that soon after cutting/splitting? I hope you clean your chimneys! I'll likely have to use some of this wood for winter 2013-14, but most will be going to the 2015-2016 supply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 GFS looks like some brief light snow to mix for the interior...then rain. Not a lot of qpf on the overrunning part though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 One thing that may be possibly, and the GFS hints at this...is a band of very light snow well ahead of the low in the deep south. The WAA aloft will occur way out ahead of the low and with the flow sort of creating weak frontogenesis at 700mb or so...it is possible. It's not a high probability since the airmass is dry, but I've seen it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Well 12z GFS suggests some frozen precip at onset for 11/27-28 based on 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 With 20 trees with logs 18" in diameter, I'll stick to my splitter. But lifting and rolling those big logs is a good workout just the same. Shouldn't yours be covered in snow in January?? lol You're burning that soon after cutting/splitting? I hope you clean your chimneys! I'll likely have to use some of this wood for winter 2013-14, but most will be going to the 2015-2016 supply. No! All this wood is for next year and the year after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 where's toronto blizzard? He should be frothing over the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 where's toronto blizzard? He should be frothing over the gfs. He'll only bite if the euro ensembles show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 GFS is interesting. It's basically a frontal wave, but may do something interesting beyond hr 174. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 He'll only bite if the euro ensembles show this. He has more sense than I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Well 12z GFS suggests some frozen precip at onset for 11/27-28 based on 850's. And then a nice cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Mostly sunny 51 degrees, gorgeous day allowing wood operations to continue. Nice haul of Red Oak yesterday and two loads of Beech today compliments of Hurricane Sandy. Nothing but pine down here from Sandy, I got a lot of my wood from last years Oct snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 GFS looks like some brief light snow to mix for the interior...then rain. Not a lot of qpf on the overrunning part though. But noticably deeper trough and vortmax now deep into the south. Yesterday this looked like a relatively weak wave. Today it looks pretty potent. The recent trend is toward a much more significant east coast storm on the GFS. Mostly rain for now in terms of actual weather impact, but if the modeling continues the amplifying trend, it's going to have a tendency to redevelop a surface low further southeast after the initial Ohio Valley low weakens. That could turn things much more wintry, esp if there ends up being less ridging ahead of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.