weathergy Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 This system looks dead right now. We will see if it comes back this weekend. It will probably still be a system, but nothing strong like we'd hoped. Might give someone thier first covering of snow, maybe above 1" but unless something changes back to what we were seeing yesterday morning, which I doubt it, that's what I'll stick with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Crazy how many ups and downs with this system, and its STILL not sampled. Definitely looking bad for a strong storm as well as those of us in MI, but who knows. LOL stuff like this is why it kills me how people freak out over the LR GFS verbatum. We are 3 DAYS out and clueless (and have seen every scenario in the book modeled the last few days). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 We are 3 DAYS out and clueless Wouldn't say that. Models trending towards a non/low-impact event as we get closer means that it will likely be just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Wouldn't say that. Models trending towards a non/low-impact event as we get closer means that it will likely be just that. seconded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Wouldn't say that. Models trending towards a non/low-impact event as we get closer means that it will likely be just that. Ok fine...then when we were 5 days out we were clueless. My point was that in the long-term thread you see so many ups and downs with each run of the gfs, its just laughable to think people worry so much about the long-range when we have more than enough problems model-wise in the short-range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The weekend will be the final say on this. If it trends aggressively amplified, then it was just model failure. Well, there are a few things in favor of this. Someone above posted a chart showing we're in a down trend of model verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Worse yet, the Euro would lose everybody's confidence. It could be very possible that the models aren't handling the pacific wave very well. It's just now coming ashore. I could've swore it was much more potent when I looked at it yesterday around this time. Seems the models are handling it well, but can't tell for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Yep, definitely weakened quite a bit since yesterday, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 00z Euro made a move toward the other globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 AFDDTX .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ............ ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS BORN OUT OF THE IMPRESSIVE LOOKING SYSTEM SPINNING OUT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND CLEARLY VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE NWP MODELS HAVE ALL COME IN AGREEMENT THIS RUN IN MAINTAINING THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND PUSHING THE LOW SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY MEANING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WOULD MISS OUT ON MUCH OF NOT ALL OF THIS EVENT. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS DESPITE THE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BACK OFF ON POPS EVEN FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND LOWER THE SNOW CHANCES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS RUN. THAT BEING SAID THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK NORTH IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS AS THE LOW ITSELF IS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED BY THE RAOB NETWORK YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 EE rule in effect, Suppressed with some action for those in the southernmost part of our subforum. LOL at the IWX long term met who talks about what has been mentioned here ad nauseam: INITIAL PROGRESSIVE POSITIVE TILT AND CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE LAKES WILL KEEP IT FROM MAKING IT TOO FAR NORTH BUT CANNOT RULE OUT NORTHERN FRINGE OF PCPN SHIELD CLIPPING OUR AREA. GUIDANCE OFTEN WEAKENS OR LOSES A STORM IN THE 4-5 DAY PERIOD ONLY TO LATCH BACK ONTO A STRONGER SOLUTION WITHIN 72 HOURS AS WAVE FINALLY REACHES OUR RADIOSONDE NETWORK. HAVE BEEN BURNT BY THIS SEVERAL TIMES SO OPTED TO RETAIN LOWER CHANCE POPS MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST SOUTH. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN PROSPECTS FOR A NARROW SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 HPC ditches the European once again. MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 128 AM EST SAT NOV 24 2012 VALID NOV 24/0000 UTC THRU NOV 27/1200 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 00Z NAM/GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF EVALUATION WITH MODEL PREFERENCES ================================================================== NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT RANGE FORECASTS. DEEPENING BROAD TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA EARLY NEXT WEEK =========================================================== PREFERENCE: NON-ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT/DEPTH OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN REGARDS TO THE MODEL TRENDS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE, THE ECMWF SHOWS A DECIDED SLOWING TREND OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS, WHILE THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN HAVE MAINTAINED REASONABLE CONTINUITY PROGRESSION-WISE, THOUGH THE CANADIAN IS NOTICEABLY WEAKER ALOFT BY TUESDAY THAN ITS OLDER RUNS. THIS HAS LED TO SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY, WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING THE QUICKEST (THOUGH IT IS NOW SLOWER THAN ITS 12Z ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION) WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE LAGGING BEHIND. THE OVERALL DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE, LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. DUE TO SHARPENING RIDGING UPSTREAM NEAR THE WEST COAST, A SLOWER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE PREFERRED ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST/MID-SOUTH DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD, ARGUING AGAINST THE ECMWF/ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF MODEL TREND. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-ECMWF COMPROMISE SOLUTION HERE, WITH CONFIDENCE REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO MODEL SPREAD AND THE SPEED OF THE FLOW PATTERN THE SHORTWAVE/CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Two traces and a whopping 0.35" of precip in the books while parts of New England might have a nice chunk of their avg annual snowfall in the books. I sure hope November does not remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I think this can safely be thrown in the trash. Flow was just to progressive. Euro with a coo. Disagree. Nothing really has performed extremely well with this imo. Weaker looks to be winning out which is what the Euro was hinting at but it went too extreme in the direction of nothing on some runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Disagree. Nothing really has performed extremely well with this imo. Weaker looks to be winning out which is what the Euro was hinting at but it went too extreme in the direction of nothing on some runs. was it the Euro or GFS that had a run really early in the tracking life of this one that sent a low through SE WI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 was it the Euro or GFS that had a run really early in the tracking life of this one that sent the low through SE WI? Euro did for sure. Can't remember if the GFS went that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Euro did for sure. Can't remember if the GFS went that far north. Thought so..thanks. I don't remember the GFS going that far north but I wasn't looking real close to the GFS that far back every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 So whats your gut thinkin on this one bowme ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 The Euro performed quite well compared to the other models which overly amped up the s/w when the Euro showed it was just going to ride the flow of the jet stream. It just isn't weaker, it isn't even a real storm. Nobody anywhere in the OV/mid Atlantic/Northeast would be getting snow if some of the past Euro runs played out verbatim. It was too fast/weak until the past couple runs. I've seen better Euro performances before...that's all I'm trying to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Nobody anywhere in the OV/mid Atlantic/Northeast would be getting snow if some of the past Euro runs played out verbatim. It was too fast/weak until the past couple runs. I've seen better Euro performances before...that's all I'm trying to say. Euro had it cutting over MKE in it's "long range". GFS was flatter. Of course some demonized it at the time. Perils of OP runs past 5-6 days. Oh well, see for yourselves the play-by-play starting here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/36904-long-term-disco/page__st__350 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Nobody anywhere in the OV/mid Atlantic/Northeast would be getting snow if some of the past Euro runs played out verbatim. It was too fast/weak until the past couple runs. I've seen better Euro performances before...that's all I'm trying to say. Yeah the Euro has been more all over the road than the GFS. Some people just don't remember the model trends unless they fit their agenda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Considering this "storm" a non threat for much of our forum members. It's definitely not going to affect me. On to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 The pattern on the GGEM, Euro and GFS looks pretty damn boring out to 240... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Considering this "storm" a non threat for much of our forum members. It's definitely not going to affect me. On to the next one. Once our area started to get out of the picture, it looked like New England might get clobbered. Now, they look to miss out as well. If latest trends pan out someone along the coast MIGHT get a few inches. What a disappointing storm for the many who followed it a week out. Oh well....we still have as much 5 more months of tracking snow threats Could be a lllllong winter lol. (Though, for every event you follow that ends up a non-event you seem to get a surprise event). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 The Euro should get kudos because it was the only one that figured out the energy would not amplify. 168-240 stuff should not be taken as gospel. But that 96-144hr Euro was terrific when things counted. The other models failed. Looking for perfection in surface developements related to the front is alot to ask in that timeframe. This. The ECMWF did better inside of 180hrs and that's all that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 The Euro should get kudos because it was the only one that figured out the energy would not amplify. 168-240 stuff should not be taken as gospel. But that 96-144hr Euro was terrific when things counted. The other models failed. Looking for perfection in surface developements related to the front is alot to ask in that timeframe. This. The ECMWF did better inside of 180hrs and that's all that matters. I also agree. The GFS initially had the right idea but abandoned it for the stronger solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Euro had the low going up over Mike's head at 168 hours out. Let's not completely crown its... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Baby steps. There's not a big enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Baby steps. WRF NAM says slight consolation prize from Indiana through N Ohio. Disco from CLE barely mentions this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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