BowMeHunter Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 sure hope not.. we're cooked here but it sure would be nice to see the lower lakes finally cash in on a fall storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 fwiw the 0z Ukie is pretty flat as well. Very GFS-esque. 1013 mb in Arkansas at 96 to 1011 mb off Cape Cod at 120. Probably an I-80 south special based on track, but I'm just guessing since we don't get QPF past 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Not bad for some of us on the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Lol, the Euro through 96 hrs has nothing, literally, not even any wave at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Lol, the Euro through 96 hrs has nothing, literally, not even any wave at all. ha, who thought it could trend even less impressive. Man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Not bad for some of us on the GEM. The past several years for some reason has hd MANY systems like this where my area is on the edge barely getting anything and northern lower gets missed completely. The reason they have had several below avg snowfall winters. I don't really understand why the storm track has been pretty persistent with that, but that's how it has been. So based on the general pattern of the last couple winters, I would think the southeastern half of lower Michigan may be the prime spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 GFS seems to favor Northeast Indiana/Far Southern Michigan/Northwest Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Although, HPC wasn't buying the 12z run, I can't imagine they would buy this run either based off of the text here...FWIW. TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY =============================================================== PREFERENCE: NON-ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS THE WEAKEST AND MOST PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM (EVEN WHEN COMPARED TO ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN), WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND SLOWER. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE LIES UPSTREAM OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST, WHICH ARGUES FOR A SLOWER/DEEPER SOLUTION. A NON-ECMWF COMPROMISE IS PREFERRED HERE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 NO storm on the euro at all. Oh my goodness. Love the models. So we may be shoveling/plowing, needing an umbrella, or not seeing a drop/flake within hundreds of miles on Tuesday. This is why poor "tv weathermen" get such a bad rep with the public. I know people like to just adore the euro, but it is SUCH an outlier, are people still buying it? I mean, that there will be NO storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 The past several years for some reason has hd MANY systems like this where my area is on the edge barely getting anything and northern lower gets missed completely. The reason they have had several below avg snowfall winters. I don't really understand why the storm track has been pretty persistent with that, but that's how it has been. So based on the general pattern of the last couple winters, I would think the southeastern half of lower Michigan may be the prime spot. There is no question that SE MI has been the prime spot for synoptic snow in recent MI winters pre 2011-12 (again, we cant say ANYTHING about last winter, because the pattern simply favored next to nothing and Ma nature threw us all a few inches whenever it was cold enough). If you ask me, its a very fair trade-off because it allows the entire state to share in winters wealth since historically (certainly not the last 5 years tho) SE MI averages by far the least snow in the "winter wonderland state". This way, we are getting a decent share of synoptic snow....when the west side of the state always has LES to pick up the slack when they miss storms...and the northern part of the state, even enduring several winters of below-normal snow, is under a constant winter-long blanket regardless of the year, allowing winter sports enthusiasts and snowmobilers to have a lot more fun than the weather weenies up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 NO storm on the euro at all. Oh my goodness. Love the models. So we may be shoveling/plowing, needing an umbrella, or not seeing a drop/flake within hundreds of miles on Tuesday. This is why poor "tv weathermen" get such a bad rep with the public. I know people like to just adore the euro, but it is SUCH an outlier, are people still buying it? I mean, that there will be NO storm? 4-5 days out is a long time but there is a lot against it even if it's models with overall lesser skill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I know people like to just adore the euro, but it is SUCH an outlier, are people still buying it? I mean, that there will be NO storm? The ECMWF handled Pacific waves better than most models last season, and it's doing alright so far this season. It has to be recognized. A solution between the ECMWF/GFS is probably the way to go for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 There is no question that SE MI has been the prime spot for synoptic snow in recent MI winters pre 2011-12 (again, we cant say ANYTHING about last winter, because the pattern simply favored next to nothing and Ma nature threw us all a few inches whenever it was cold enough). If you ask me, its a very fair trade-off because it allows the entire state to share in winters wealth since historically (certainly not the last 5 years tho) SE MI averages by far the least snow in the "winter wonderland state". This way, we are getting a decent share of synoptic snow....when the west side of the state always has LES to pick up the slack when they miss storms...and the northern part of the state, even enduring several winters of below-normal snow, is under a constant winter-long blanket regardless of the year, allowing winter sports enthusiasts and snowmobilers to have a lot more fun than the weather weenies up there. Good points. While I love having lake effect snow to compensate being missed by storms, LES melts and compacts much faster...so I would much rather have synoptic snow (think northern New England ) Two out of the three winters I have lived here have been blah...I think I came expecting more winters like '10-'11...many great clippers and lake enhanced snow. I LOVE the Lake enhanced snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 The ECMWF handled Pacific waves better than most models last season, and it's doing alright so far this season. It has to be recognized. A solution between the ECMWF/GFS is probably the way to go for now. Right now I would toss it, when even it's own ensembles are favoring a more amplified solution then you know something is off with the op Euro. The whole evolution of the vorticity is completely muddled on that run, it doesn't have any sort of dominant piece just a mess of vorticity across Canada. I would have a hard time believing that would come out of such a strong upper level low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Right now I would toss it, when even it's own ensembles are favoring a more amplified solution then you know something is off with the op Euro. The whole evolution of the vorticity is completely muddled on that run, it doesn't have any sort of dominant piece just a mess of vorticity across Canada. I would have a hard time believing that would come out of such a strong upper level low. The 12z ENS mean was fairly flat/non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 The 12z ENS mean was fairly flat/non-event. That is the first run they deviated from the stronger solution, I guess we will have to see if the 00z mean agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 EURO ensemble mean is completely meh. Call it modelology if you must, but three runs of consistency from the most reliable model we have (and its ensembles) is enough to make me change my mind. It might be going too far with the complete dampening of the ul wave, but a compromise solution is at least in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I am cautiously considering the ECMWF as an outlier. After looking at all of the models, I would propose this being the cone of uncertainty ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 SEMI isn't going to like the 06z GFS. Looks like the trend is going towards the Euro. Might have to seriously consider this as being a minor event for central OH unless something changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 305 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2012 VALID 12Z TUE NOV 27 2012 - 12Z FRI NOV 30 2012 GENERAL FLOW PATTERN ==================== A REPETITION OF THE PATTERN SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS EXPECTED, WITH AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FORMING ACROSS THE WEST AND PLAINS, AND RENEWED TROUGHING ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, THOUGH THE RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLET OVER THE LOWER 48 IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPOSED OF BROAD FEATURES OF RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE, WHICH LEADS TO QUICK SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE COUNTRY. MODEL PREFERENCE ================ MODEL ISSUES ARE SIGNIFICANT THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF BECOMES VERY FAST WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY, AND EVEN THOUGH ITS PATTERN ALOFT RESEMBLES THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION LATE NEXT WEEK, ITS PRESSURE PATTERN HAS BEEN SO CONTAMINATED BY THIS QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE EAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC, ITS SOLUTION COULD NOT BE USED. THE 00Z GFS BROKE DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE WEDNESDAY MORNING BY USING A FORMERLY CLOSED LOW TO DO SO, AND DOES NOT CONVERGE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE UNTIL DECEMBER 1ST, SO ITS SOLUTION WAS NOT USED EITHER. THE 00Z CANADIAN SHARPENS THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY ON, AND SENDS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHICH SHOWS LITTLE RESPECT TO THE COOL AIR IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE (NO OBVIOUS COLD AIR DAMMING). THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE TO BOOT, AND CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW, ITS SOLUTION SHOULD BE QUICKER AND POSSIBLY WEAKER HERE, SO ITS SOLUTION WAS NOT BE USED EITHER. PER THE ABOVE, THE PRESSURES USED A 00Z UKMET TEMPLATE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z UKMET SOLUTION WAS NOT PERFECT EITHER, SHOWING QUICKER PROGRESSION THAN ANTICIPATED BY THE ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING ACROSS THE EAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC, SO SHIFTED ITS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TOWARDS 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD THIS PERIOD, THE RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 UNITED STATES, AND THE LACK OF AN OVERALL GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL CHOICE, CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS PREFERENCE. ROTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 If the Euro scores a coup on this system, I will ride it so hard this winter that I will have saddle sores by Valentine's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Currently in a down trend of verification in the 5 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 If the Euro scores a coup on this system, I will ride it so hard this winter that I will have saddle sores by Valentine's Day. Sounds like a plan. 12z GFS is in. This "threat" is on life support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Sounds like a plan. 12z GFS is in. This "threat" is on life support. Agree here. Only reason to hold off any longer is for sampling, but I doubt it deviates much. One more day of this trend, and I think we can rule out MI for any kind of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 12z GGEM gets rid of the amplified system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Low amplitude waves are a you know what. The Euro's no storm whatsoever idea still seems extreme but it's certainly possible that it ends up being fairly weak and suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Surprised to see the hpc so against using the euro... Actually, they pretty much ruled out the entire model suite in that discussion up there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Surprised to see the hpc so against using the euro... Actually, they pretty much ruled out the entire model suite in that discussion up there lol. Even then, I think it will end up being suppressed enough that most of the snowfall will end up south of Michigan, and we would barely see anything. I would never say never, but realistically, we might just have to wait for the next storm before we see any kind of moderate to heavy snowfall here. Indiana and Ohio are surely still in it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Quite a bit of spread on the 12z GFS ensembles though almost all try to do something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.