jdrenken Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 JB is riding the Euro's ideas on FB. If the GFS showed a east coast system w/o support he would claim it echos Weatherbell forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 I guess being in the middle is the best place to be 5 days out. Euro doesnt have much of a storm anyway, but what precip does fall is WAY WAY south of us. GGEM has a nice storm tracking NW of us giving us mostly rain. GFS gives us snow, with its ensembles showing everything from a nice snow, to rain, to dry with a suppressed storm (though most do show an appreciable storm). All you can do is wait and hope! Lol! The models are SO useful.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 If the GFS showed a east coast system w/o support he would claim it echos Weatherbell forecast. I know I was going to add fwiw because the Euro fits with his cold bias to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 JB is riding the Euro's ideas on FB. Bustardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 JB is riding the model that has the best/coldest scenario for the east coast? I am absolutely SHOCKED!!! Bottom line, euro has the best track record but the least support. Best track record does not mean right 100% of the time (not close, actually). So I think until/if it gets more support...discount the euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Some of the 12z GFS ensembles are more like the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 LOT NEXT WEEK... EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIG FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH MODERATE AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER PATTERN THOUGH IT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BEFORE EJECTING EAST OR NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A COUPLE SOMEWHAT CLUSTERED SOLUTIONS THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN KEYING ON. THE SOLUTION WITH MOST CONSENSUS WOULD BE FOR THE LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BRINGING A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GFS AND GEM AS WELL AS THE GEFS MEAN. LOOKING AT SPAGHETTI PLOTS...GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE LOW POSITIONS UP AND DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI...THOUGH MORE FAVORING THE NORTH TRACK. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW PASSING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WHILE EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS ALSO SHARED A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION. GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 MKX MODELS DIFFER IN HANDLING EVOLUTION OF 500 MB WAVE AND SUBSEQUENTSURFACE DEVELOPMENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FASTER ON GEMNH AND GFS...AND CONSEQUENTLY THEY ARE FARTHER NORTH THAN ECMWF OR DGEX WITH TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS. CONSENSUS BLEND CURRENTLY GIVES US ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW...NOT A SURPRISE GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE GEMNH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY NORTH THE LAST TWO RUNS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SOUTH AND DRY. BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED ON LATER RUNS AS SOME OF THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOW TO MID-LEVEL FEATURES THAT BRING HEAVY NOVEMBER SNOW TO WISCONSIN ARE BEING REFLECTED IN SOME OF THE MODELS...EVEN THE ONES WITH THE FARTHER SOUTH SURFACE LOW SOLUTION. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED DRY...WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Wow, the 12z EURO ensemble mean is now as flat as the OP. Even the UKIE has gone more sheared/suppressed, although not to the same extent. I'm thinking there are sampling issues with the s/w as it's currently still over the Pacific. The EURO has a distinct s/w at 72 hours but then it simply disappears in later frames. Whatever transpires, nice to be back to tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Wow, the 12z EURO ensemble mean is now as flat as the OP. Even the UKIE has gone more sheared/suppressed, although not to the same extent. I'm thinking there are sampling issues with the s/w as it's currently still over the Pacific. The EURO has a distinct s/w at 72 hours but then it simply disappears in later frames. Whatever transpires, nice to be back to tracking. WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS ANCHORED OFF THE WEST COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA IN POORLY SAMPLED REGION. DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL DICTATE HOW STRONG THIS WAVE ENDS UP BEING AS IT DIVES INTO PLAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 MKX Just the climatology factor mentioned by MKX is important - further north this time of year. I'm in the GFS/GEM blend camp for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Just the climatology factor mentioned by MKX is important - further north this time of year. I'm in the GFS/GEM blend camp for now. Will be interesting how this plays out. Needless to say, I think someone in the Midwest/Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley is getting a decent accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Yup climatology is on our side but until that shortwave makes it ashore, its anyone's guess where this system will end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Well the DEGEX shows SeMi getting 8-12" lol Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Well the DEGEX shows SeMi getting 8-12" lol Lock it in. this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 this? Ah, clown maps. How I missed thee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Not sure if people out here are familiar with the Canadian clown maps, but on the 12z GEM through 120 (according to this product anyway) it's rain south of the WI/IL line and south of I-94 in MI, although with a decent amount of wrap-around snow hitting the Quad Cities and hopefully pivoting on through Chicago. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html I don't remember how quick it updates for the new run, but the 0z should be coming out in about an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 this? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 this? Fantasy maps in Nov? Maybe that bodes well for this winter. Remember in 2010-11? There were fantasy maps almost every day. Many of them didnt pan out, but in the end we had a FANTASTIC winter. Last year, I dont even remember ANY fantasy maps. Most of our snows were the 1-3" variety and our best storm was an overperformer at 3-5" when the models had pegged us at the usual 1-2". So regardless of what happens Tue, its very nice to see fantasy maps already showing up as winter merely approaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Fantasy maps in Nov? Maybe that bodes well for this winter. Remember in 2010-11? There were fantasy maps almost every day. Many of them didnt pan out, but in the end we had a FANTASTIC winter. Last year, I dont even remember ANY fantasy maps. Most of our snows were the 1-3" variety and our best storm was an overperformer at 3-5" when the models had pegged us at the usual 1-2". So regardless of what happens Tue, its very nice to see fantasy maps already showing up as winter merely approaches I'm sure I was posting some last year on November 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Quick look at the 00z GFS would suggest it is reasonably similar to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 Fantasy maps in Nov? Maybe that bodes well for this winter. Remember in 2010-11? There were fantasy maps almost every day. Many of them didnt pan out, but in the end we had a FANTASTIC winter. Last year, I dont even remember ANY fantasy maps. Most of our snows were the 1-3" variety and our best storm was an overperformer at 3-5" when the models had pegged us at the usual 1-2". So regardless of what happens Tue, its very nice to see fantasy maps already showing up as winter merely approaches Yep, that was my FIRST thought when I saw those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I'm sure I was posting some last year on November 29. Hmm perhaps. I do know for areas well NW of Detroit towards Lansing they got a good 4-6" (their best storm of the year) Nov 29/30 but that was one of those events that I really knew I was out of the game (actually quite thrilled to get 0.6" on the backside), so I probably never paid attention, at least that i can remember. My eyes are always fixated on DTW on those maps lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Hmm perhaps. I do know for areas well NW of Detroit towards Lansing they got a good 4-6" (their best storm of the year) Nov 29/30 but that was one of those events that I really knew I was out of the game (actually quite thrilled to get 0.6" on the backside), so I probably never paid attention, at least that i can remember. My eyes are always fixated on DTW on those maps lol. LAF was basically on the western fringe. Can't remember the exact total but I think it was like 2 or 3 inches. There was a band of 6-10" to the north/east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 00z GFS is more south with the precip shield, but the ensemble mean is further north. GGEM still has a good storm but is well south of its 12z run, now making the southern 1/3 of MI the prime spot for decent snow. What will the euro do? Well its a day closer, but still 4+ days away. And Im getting sucked into model watching. Ugh lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 Quick look at the 00z GFS would suggest it is reasonably similar to previous runs. If anything, it's a tick stronger. Not a bad run from Fort Wayne to Toledo to Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 00z GGEM is also fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 0z GGEM (120 & 132Hr) A quick glance at PCPN maps show a good hit for most of East-Central IL to Northern IN to SEMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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