weathergy Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 It looks like 00z Euro doesn't have a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 It looks like 00z Euro doesn't have a storm. Looks like it was run for another planet. Talk about suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Looks like it was run for another planet. Talk about suppressed. I have a hard time believing that there will be that much cold air suppressing the storm. No way that verifies for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 We are 120hrs out and still not a common solution, at this time I would have to favor the higher resolution Euro, although I have thrown the Euro under the bus a few times before with early season storms, it has always come back to bite me in A** boy did they hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 We are 120hrs out and still not a common solution, at this time I would have to favor the higher resolution Euro, although I have thrown the Euro under the bus a few times before with early season storms, it has always come back to bite me in A** boy did they hurt. I think the Euro is the outlier at this point. I'd be a lot more concerned with a really suppressed solution if it still has a couple days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 We are 120hrs out and still not a common solution, at this time I would have to favor the higher resolution Euro, although I have thrown the Euro under the bus a few times before with early season storms, it has always come back to bite me in A** boy did they hurt. The afternoon run had a storm. At this point, I'm considering it an outlier. Curious to see if the 6z runs show a more suppressed solution. I'm going to lose my mind if it comes back north in the afternoon. I think the GFS has been the most consistent so far, and it's right in the middle. So I'm riding with the GFS for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 I think the Euro is the outlier at this point. I'd be a lot more concerned with a really suppressed solution if it still has a couple days from now. The afternoon run had a storm. At this point, I'm considering it an outlier. Curious to see if the 6z runs show a more suppressed solution. I'm going to lose my mind if it comes back north in the afternoon. I think the GFS has been the most consistent so far, and it's right in the middle. So I'm riding with the GFS for now. Great minds think alike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Even the NOGAPS takes the surface low into Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Even the NOGAPS takes the surface low into Ohio. Yep, the Euro is definitely an outlier. I have a good feeling I'm going to be wasting my Thanksgiving away looking through models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 The afternoon run had a storm. At this point, I'm considering it an outlier. Curious to see if the 6z runs show a more suppressed solution. I'm going to lose my mind if it comes back north in the afternoon. I think the GFS has been the most consistent so far, and it's right in the middle. So I'm riding with the GFS for now. IMO, I think he GEM has been the most consistent thus far, I'm just having a hard time buying it, the - PDO what it is, cold air will pour in before the storm gets wrapped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 I think even though the Euro is a outlier as compared to other models, I think it's solution is the correct one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 I think even though the Euro is a outlier as compared to other models, I think it's solution is the correct one Just my opinion, but I don't think any models have a good handle on this storm just yet, so there are no correct solutions at the moment. Not by any means am I ruling out a suppressed storm, I just have a hard time believing that much cold air is going to pour in around this time of year. This is November, not December/January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Just my opinion, but I don't think any models have a good handle on this storm just yet, so there are no correct solutions at the moment. Not by any means am I ruling out a suppressed storm, I just have a hard time believing that much cold air is going to pour in around this time of year. This is November, not December/January. Backing that up, looking at the GFS Ensembles, there are divergent solutions, with a few looking like the GEM and UKMET. Interestingly, those solutions do not diverge until about 96-102 hrs out, illustrating how much time we are likely going to have to wait until the model discrepancies resolve themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 It was just last year on Nov 29th that I picked up 6 inches, north of Lansing jack-potted the storm with 12 inches. It was my only 3+ inch storm of the winter. Jon A measly 0.6" on the backedge of the storm last nov 29/30. Shocked you didnt get 3"+ on feb 10/11, had 4.9" imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Just my opinion, but I don't think any models have a good handle on this storm just yet, so there are no correct solutions at the moment. Not by any means am I ruling out a suppressed storm, I just have a hard time believing that much cold air is going to pour in around this time of year. This is November, not December/January. It's really not that cold. there are disjointed pockets of colder air moving South. But along the front, it's really not that cold at all. And it's also November 27th. The average high is 49 low 33 in STL that day. Look's like the models all handle the strength of the short wave much differently, the GEM and EURO are light years apart on the piece of energy and subsequent amplification. The suppression would be even worse if the GFS solutions of the lead Northern stream piece of energy were more like a few days ago with a or without a strong system diving into the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 The Gem. GFS, and Euro, the scales are different, the Euro's depiction of the system wouldn't even show up on the first two maps. 5 Days out, talk about all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 As tough as it is to bet against such a superior model, I'm pretty confident the non-storm scenario the EURO is depicting is wrong. Even its ensemble mean has a broad slp center around E PA. Not exactly a UKIE/GGEM solution, but enough to relegate the 0z OP EURO as a major outlier (unless you want to count a few of the GEFS members, which on account of their cold bias are always suppressed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 From IWX: UPR FLOW WILL BRIEFLY FLATTEN OUT BEFORE FOCUS TURNS TO ENERGY SET TO MOVE SE AND EVENTUALLY HOOK NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS CONTINUES WITH MODELS WITH ECMWF THE FURTHEST SOUTH (NO PRECIP FOR THE AREA) VS GFS/GEMNH THAT BRING THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. GEMNH REMAINS THE FURTHEST NORTH PLACING BULK OF SNOWFALL INTO WI/MI MUCH LIKE GFS DID A FEW DAYS AGO. GFS REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH BUT IN MIDDLE OF SOLUTIONS TO WARRANT USING AS A COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT. CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIODS WOULD BE FUTILE GIVEN THE NUMBER OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS WITH ENERGY NOT FULLY SAMPLED IN UPPER AIR DATA AS OF YET. SUSPECT THAT WITH TIME...MODELS WILL CONVERGE ON WHAT MAY EVOLVE INTO A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FOR SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. MIX PRECIP MENTION KEPT MON THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN ALL SNOW TUES NGT BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 People in Northern OH will love the 06z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 People in Northern OH will love the 06z GFS People in Northern IN aren't complaining either. Ahhhhhh....finally something to track. It doesn't look like anything major, but I have been waiting many months. Good luck to everyone in the region, someone should see an accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Yep, the Euro is definitely an outlier. I have a good feeling I'm going to be wasting my Thanksgiving away looking through models. Every year for me. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 I'm not sure if it means much given the off hour run, but the 6z GFS ensembles as a whole seem to be a bit NW, with more of them affecting the Western Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 The 12z GFS ensemble mean is actually PERFECT for SE MI, but you know what an ensemble mean is....some too far NW (ie, rain), some good for nice snow, some suppressed...but at least a storm of some kind should impact someone in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 12z EURO through 96 still looks like it's going to be fairly suppressed. Not even a kink in the mean 500mb flow. Still think it's wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 First Measurable Snow Of The Season Possible Tuesday After Flirting With Record Territory For Warm Thanksgivings! http://weatherhistor...-of-season.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Loving the potentials for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 How can the GGEM and Euro be such complete opposites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 As much as I don't like it and think it is likely to be wrong, I may have to ride the Euro since it's the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Loving the potentials for this region. I guess being in the middle is the best place to be 5 days out. Euro doesnt have much of a storm anyway, but what precip does fall is WAY WAY south of us. GGEM has a nice storm tracking NW of us giving us mostly rain. GFS gives us snow, with its ensembles showing everything from a nice snow, to rain, to dry with a suppressed storm (though most do show an appreciable storm). All you can do is wait and hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 JB is riding the Euro's ideas on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.