Geos Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The NAO wouldn't be negative enough for the East Coast solution. Ridging in the SE is in the way also. GFS OP is useless at this juncture. West of the Appalachian Mts. solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 18Z GFS Nice and stronger Vort this run too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 18Z GFS Nice and stronger Vort this run too... Interesting how the low pretty much kicks due east through 168 hours. That kicker wave coming into the northern Plains is probably playing some role in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Pretty soon Alek can start worrying about how much the lake will cut into his totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Pretty soon Alek can start worrying about how much the lake will cut into his totals. Then he can make a call, and remind us 100 times over he has stuck to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The strength of the cold air this weekend could be a huge factor in this storm. If the cold air is strong enough it could be giving snow to more areas than first glance would suggest. Could even be one of thos deals where anyone with thicknesses under 543 or so could get snow, when a situation like that is usually more common in mid-winter, which we are nowhere near. I can remember many-a-cold November rains where thicknesses of 538-540 had me excited for snow only to disappoint, but perhaps this scenario will be the opposite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Liking that 18z run! Lakes are a factor, but the air mass over the snow area is below -2.5°C at 925mb. The cold air source looks pretty good I'd say. Hopefully with 4 days of cold and some wind, the lakes will cool off a couple degrees. Yeah, I suspect Alek will make a statement soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Liking that 18z run! Lakes are a factor, but the air mass over the snow area is below -2.5°C at 925mb. The cold air source looks pretty good I'd say. Hopefully with 4 days of cold and some wind, the lakes will cool off a couple degrees. Yeah, I suspect Alek will make a statement soon! The only recent events (same time of year) I can think of in that area are 11/24/04 and 12/1/06. Alek might remember more. It's still a long way out but if something like the 18z GFS were to verify I could see a scenario where there's accumulating snow inland...meanwhile it's like 36 in downtown Chicago with snow that has a hard time sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 18z GFS definitely gives the north side of Chicago a bit of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 The only recent events (same time of year) I can think of in that area are 11/24/04 and 12/1/06. Alek might remember more. It's still a long way out but if something like the 18z GFS were to verify I could see a scenario where there's accumulating snow inland...meanwhile it's like 36 in downtown Chicago with snow that has a hard time sticking. 11/24 the lake had more of a influence. Only had 2.5". Had some mixing issues in the morning here 4.2 miles inland. 12/1/06 was a beast of a storm for this area! 13" after weather like this: 22nd-30th. 52º/31º 52º/32º 58º/33º 56º/36º 55º/43º 60º/44º 59º/44º 59º/36º 35º/23º Kenosha was the winner at 17". Lake temperatures were running warm. I think more so than now. Like to hear what Alek got in that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Sam Lashley, a respected met at IWX, makes a good point in his afternoon disco: NEXT MAIN CHALLENGE IN EXTENDED IS WITH DEVELOPING PAN HANDLE HOOK SYSTEM FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUE NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN SPREAD BUT TREND NOTED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION DEVELOPED IN THE 00Z RUNS WITH ECMWF AND GFS STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH SURFACE LOW TRACK. 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED BACK SOUTH AND WEAKER WHILE 12Z GEMNH IS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF AND SFC LOW TRACK INTO WI NEXT WEEK. 12Z GEFS ALSO SHOWING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH SURFACE LOW. PREFERENCE CONTINUES TOWARD NORTHERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND PAST HISTORY OF THESE TYPE SYSTEMS. THE UNCERTAINTY AND KEY PLAYER IS HOW STRONG THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE AND HOW QUICKLY IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. FOR THIS REASON MUST STILL HONOR SOME OF THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS WHICH SIMPLY ALLOWS US TO KEEP A RAIN OR SNOW MENTION IN THE FORECAST WITH ALL BLEND TEMPS BEING USED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF BEING IN THE WARM OR COLD SECTOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 The only recent events (same time of year) I can think of in that area are 11/24/04 and 12/1/06. Alek might remember more. It's still a long way out but if something like the 18z GFS were to verify I could see a scenario where there's accumulating snow inland...meanwhile it's like 36 in downtown Chicago with snow that has a hard time sticking. Granted some of these are up to 1 and a half weeks later... There's 12/7-9/09, 12/8-9/05, 12/6-7/94 and 12/2-3/91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Pretty soon Alek can start worrying about how much the lake will cut into his totals. I'm happy to say that I no longer have to worry about that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 It was just last year on Nov 29th that I picked up 6 inches, north of Lansing jack-potted the storm with 12 inches. It was my only 3+ inch storm of the winter. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 00z GFS came out weaker and a bit suppressed, but still showing snowfall for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 12/1/06 was a beast of a storm for this area! 13" after weather like this: 22nd-30th. This was an awesome snowstorm for early December, picked up 14" here. Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha were under blizzard warnings as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 This was an awesome snowstorm for early December, picked up 14" here. Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha were under blizzard warnings as well. After that MKE went almost a month and a half with no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 The above 00z run of the GFS looks to give Detroit a 3-5" swath of the white stuff. I love early Christmas presents in November. Now watch it come in as all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 11/24 the lake had more of a influence. Only had 2.5". Had some mixing issues in the morning here 4.2 miles inland. 12/1/06 was a beast of a storm for this area! 13" after weather like this: 22nd-30th. 52º/31º 52º/32º 58º/33º 56º/36º 55º/43º 60º/44º 59º/44º 59º/36º 35º/23º Kenosha was the winner at 17". Lake temperatures were running warm. I think more so than now. Like to hear what Alek got in that storm. ORD only had 5-6" on 12/1/06, as there was mixed precipitation for a good part of the storm. So, I imagine Alek had even less downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 22, 2012 Author Share Posted November 22, 2012 The above 00z run of the GFS looks to give Detroit a 3-5" swath of the white stuff. I love early Christmas presents in November. Now watch it come in as all rain. It's rarely gets better than 3-5" for the end of November, especially in Detroit. I'm just glad we finally have the first legit threat to track for the season. It's way too boring for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 00z GFS is the living on the edge run for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 It's rarely gets better than 3-5" for the end of November, especially in Detroit. I'm just glad we finally have the first legit threat to track for the season. It's way too boring for me. I can't even remember the last time we got anything above 3" in November. It's been awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 One caveat that I could see with this system is time of day, currently it would be coming during the daytime, not to say this is about sun angle but more so about the fact that it would be coming during the warmest part of the day with already marginal temperatures. Of course this is no where near locked in, as the timing with respect to this system is all over the road. Personally I'd rather see it come at night vs during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 One caveat that I could see with this system is time of day, currently it would be coming during the daytime, not to say this is about sun angle but more so about the fact that it would be coming during the warmest part of the day with already marginal temperatures. Of course this is no where near locked in, as the timing with respect to this system is all over the road. Personally I'd rather see it come at night vs during the day. The children would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Start at 5:30 pm finishing around 3:00AM. A snow plowers prefered timed storm. Nothing worse than a quick punch at 6am to screw up your morning. Everyone thinks they need to be first on the list. I always pick who pays first as a importantance factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 This is going to be one tough forecast. First you have this low amplitude wave coming ashore BC/pac NW and then has to cross the rockies. So that's one thing the models will struggle with. Then you have this second wave that comes southeast and moves along the US/Canada border and almost phases with the first wave as it moves across the midwest and into the OV. So not only will the models have to deal with the timing/strength of both of those, but also the speed and if this phasing occurs. The 18z GFS had a much stronger wave cross the rockies where the 0z GFS is much weaker with it. 18z GFS 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Start at 5:30 pm finishing around 3:00AM. A snow plowers prefered timed storm. Nothing worse than a quick punch at 6am to screw up your morning. Everyone thinks they need to be first on the list. I always pick who pays first as a importantance factor. Those 6 a.m. punches are the only times they close school around here. We could get a foot of snow throughout the night and the roads be a mess, but everything will be open. They are pretty hardcore around here with not canceling stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 UKE getting into form early. 12Z 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Quite the storm on the GGEM, especially for IA/WI early on... http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&hh=132&comp=1&runb=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=144&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 UKMET and GGEM look really similar. Good for the upper midwest, if they verify. My gut instinct says the track will end up like the GGEM, and I will be surprised (and happy) if Detroit ends up getting the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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