Powerball Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 It's looking increasingly likely that parts of the Great Lakes Ohio Valley could have their first accumulating snow event of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 GFS favors the OV in the snowfall department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Looks like the Euro went nuts on the NAO, spiking it deeply negative. That would mean plenty of cold air. That is the lowest I have seen this in quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Here is the PNA and AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Teleconnections make me think that an inland scenario is more likely....problem is inland could be Pittsburgh or Green Bay lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 In my opinion i think this storm will fluctuate frequently on the models given the difficult pattern setup around this storm so the models will have a hard time leaning towards a consistent solution. One run your disappointed the next your excited, etc. haha. The teleconnection pattern and East based -NAO anomaly does favor a inland track but as Hoosier said it could be "inland, inland" haha but i'm keeping an eye on how far south this storm digs and if any sort of phasing occurs. Cause that little clipper type storm ahead of it could create a pseudo 50/50 Low and act like a block suppressing this, so alot of factors on this table. I think by the weekend it'll be more clear. Hmph, better not end up like last year -_- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Scenarios all over the place. I will be shocked if SOMEONE in the region doesnt get a nice snowfall, but again, at this point, it could be ANYBODY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Looks like the 00z GFS is bringing this thing west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Looks like the 00z GFS is bringing this thing west. Yep...rain for many of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Yep...rain for many of us... I had a bad feeling. What michsnowfreak was talking about earlier in the long term thread is happening on this run, but it's just one run nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The morning AFD from MKX is making it sound like there is the potential for our first accumulating snow here. MONDAY AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOWUPPER FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND FOCUS WILL BE ON CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE TROUGH. 00Z GEM IS THE WETTEST FOR MONDAY IMPLYING A MIX IN THE SOUTH AND PERHAPS ALL SNOW IN THE NORTH BASED ON 850 TEMPS/1000-500 MB THICKNESSES. HOWEVER GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THEN BRING IT INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. COULD END UP SEEING OUR FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON WITH THIS LOW AS THE TRACK AND OVERALL THERMAL PROFILE SETTING UP TO FAVOR MORE OF A SNOW EVENT VERSUS MIX/RAIN. IF THE GFS/ECMWF WERE TO TREND MORE TOWARDS THE GEM SOLUTION THEN A HEADLINE SCENARIO COULD TAKE SHAPE. LOTS OF TIME YET TO SORT ALL OF THIS OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I'd hit the 6z GFS. There were a couple 6z GEFS members that went bonkers too. Still, lots of time to see how this shakes out. Cautiously optimistic someone in the region sees an accumulating snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The morning AFD from MKX is making it sound like there is the potential for our first accumulating snow here. It's definitely possible, but the models have been shifting and flip flopping so much we won't know much for certain until Saturday or perhaps Sunday. Now the GFS Ensembles look pretty good as a whole, but the Euro, although a decently favorable track, was weak and didn't wrap in much snow on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 6z wasn't bad at all. I'd be happy with an inch or two just to hit normal snowfall for the month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 6z wasn't bad at all. I'd be happy with an inch or two just to hit normal snowfall for the month! Yeah, in my case I'd have to be happy with normal snowfall for the month considering it is around 3.5". I would take that from this system in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Yeah, in my case I'd have to be happy with normal snowfall for the month considering it is around 3.5". I would take that from this system in a heartbeat. Yup, I'm in the same boat as you guys. Given the pattern I don't want to to see it go to waste. I'll take a couple of inches so November doesn't end up with a goose egg in the record books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 12z GFS is crap on a stick. It tries to get going, but largely fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 12z GFS is crap on a stick. It tries to get going, but largely fails. As it has been stated several times, the models will continue to be all over the place until the weekend. Given recent weather trends, I"ll bet it does end up a suppressed rainstorm for most who are impacted, with a small stripe of snow on the backside, probably in the Ohio Valley and Eastern Great Lakes. I hate to say it, but we may be looking at some useless cold coming up unless a clipper comes our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 No surprise that HM targets the East Coast primarily with his snow potential. No bias in there at all. From S Illinois into S Indiana, SE Ohio, all of Pennsylvania east and then north along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Haven't looked at the particulars, but face value, the 12z GFS may be good for the Toronto folks. Would be nice to get something going up there early. I'm pulling for that crew this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Haven't looked at the particulars, but face value, the 12z GFS may be good for the Toronto folks. Would be nice to get something going up there early. I'm pulling for that crew this winter. Looks like maybe an inch or two on the backside after some rain or mixed precipitation. Nothing to write home about certainly. Not strong enough to wrap much cold air on the backside of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Not sure while all the ripping on the 6z GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 No surprise that HM targets the East Coast primarily with his snow potential. No bias in there at all. From S Illinois into S Indiana, SE Ohio, all of Pennsylvania east and then north along the coast. No surprise there. Although he did put down two possible tracks. A eastern Lakes cutter or a TN Valley one. Added: I'm pulling for the Toronto crew too! Hoping they get at least a 12" storm there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 And the GEM is a rainstorm (and obviously a Western Lakes cutter). Would be a nice storm for La Crosse and Green Bay back to about Minneapolis. Low deepens to nearly 990 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Looks like maybe an inch or two on the backside after some rain or mixed precipitation. Nothing to write home about certainly. Not strong enough to wrap much cold air on the backside of the storm. inch or two more than we'll get... Snow is useless so early down here except for stat padding. wish the euro was right a few runs back and brought it right through low pressure Dec alley in SE WI... . at least the north has some chance to keep it on the ground.. Even up there it prob torches away in dec when the Pacific fire hoses it away. I'm afraid we're going to see you hanging from here come Feb. Not sure yet where I'll be found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 inch or two more than we'll get... Snow is useless so early down here except for stat padding. wish the euro was right a few runs back and brought it right through low pressure Dec alley in SE WI... . at least the north has some chance to keep it on the ground.. Even up there it prob torches away in dec when the Pacific fire hoses it away. I'm afraid we're going to see you hanging from here come Feb. Not sure yet where I'll be found. Lolz. If we see useless cold air that might happen, but I'm actually hoping the more amped solutions like the GEM occur like you, even if that means all rain for us, because there has been nothing to track for ages here, it seems. An Upper Midwest blizzard would be better than suppressed junk or another East Coast weenie hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The wave in question comes out of the spinning mess over the GOA so the models will of course continue to differ for atleast the next few days. Isn't progged to come ashore BC/pac NW till Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Lolz. If we see useless cold air that might happen, but I'm actually hoping the more amped solutions like the GEM occur like you, even if that means all rain for us, because there has been nothing to track for ages here, it seems. An Upper Midwest blizzard would be better than suppressed junk or another East Coast weenie hit. It would be nice to put more water into the ground. Staying optimistic that this will be the first winter storm in several over the first part of the winter - for the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Lolz. If we see useless cold air that might happen, but I'm actually hoping the more amped solutions like the GEM occur like you, even if that means all rain for us, because there has been nothing to track for ages here, it seems. An Upper Midwest blizzard would be better than suppressed junk or another East Coast weenie hit. Spoken like someone who lives on the wrong side of the lake. Cold air=snow on this side. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Yeah I think even jug head would rather have a ramped up solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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