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[bluewave]

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[The_Global_Warmer]

That was a very easy read.

One big glaring factor to me was this:

However, the picture is different for the contiguous United States, where it is clear that in addition to fluctuations on interannual-to-decadal timescales, even trends over 50 years are subject to considerable uncertainty owing to natural variability. For the contiguous United States as a whole, future (2005–2060) warming ranges from 0.8 °C to 3.4 °C in winter and 1.3 °C to 3.4 °C in summer (recall the corresponding maps in Figs 1 and 2). The distribution of trends in Figs 1c and 2c shows the probability of warming of a particular magnitude. Higher warming over the contiguous United States is compensated for by weaker warming in other parts of the globe, particularly Canada, China and portions of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and vice versa (not shown).

But the global response in both periods was extremely consistent. And quite large.

A1B greenhouse-gas scenario (in which carbon dioxide concentrations increase from approximately 380 ppm in 2000 to approximately 570 ppm in 2060) and stratospheric ozone recovery by 2060, as well as smaller contributions from sulphate aerosol and black-carbon changes¹⁹. Each ensemble member begins from identical initial conditions in the ocean, land and sea-ice model components (taken from the conditions on 1 January 2000 from a single twentieth century CCSM3 integration), and slightly different initial conditions in the atmospheric model (taken from different days during December 1999 and January 2000 from the same twentieth century CCSM3 run).

With more large regions of the world in the process of helping the cause to pump Co2 into the Atmosphere the 570PPM scenario isn't all that far-fetched.

Of course that doesn't valid this paper or anything, just an anecdote. If we average 3PPM per year between 2013-2060. That put's Co2 around 540PPM by 2060.

Of course that is dependent on many other things. And that also doesn't account for possible sharp rises in Methane.