Buckeye05 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Things are shaping up in this time period so that it looks like a possible severe event may be possible late this November. It is fairly far off, but the moisture is decent, and the shear looks very impressive. This is an event to watch for the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I would've waited a couple more days at least to see more consistency, but yes there have been runs to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Yes watching latest GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Yes watching latest GFS now. Moisture not looking as good on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Lol, that's because the trough is essentially flat, of course you aren't going to see a lot of moisture advection in a solution like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Well, this time of year has produced some pretty good rounds of severe weather in the southeast. The last two weeks of November seem to be notorious for tornadoes in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 18z GFS actually looking a bit better again for severe. Looking slightly less zonal, and there is better moisture/shear overlap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 We're going to need a stronger LL reflection than that to get more reliable moisture return (in addition to better low level shear). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 i hope the sandhills or piedmont of NC will get in on this. it's been too long for me =/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 00z GFS looks a bit more amplified, we'll see if the Euro follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Euro is even drier than the GFS and with a slight positive tilt. Nothing good there. However I admit I'm hoping for some moisture return and a more GFS-like solution. Keep in mind everything had snow in the Mid South 24 hours ago, so yeah we might want to wait and see with these 700 mile track changes. Enjoy Thanksgiving first. Mild and fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 SPC has a D6 outlook, now that I checked. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0359 AM CST WED NOV 21 2012 VALID 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... PROGRESSIVE AND GENERALLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALOFT IS FCST THROUGH PERIOD. ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN FROM WRN/CENTRAL GULF...WHICH IS NOT PROBABLE UNTIL AT LEAST LATE DAY-5/25TH-26TH...AND MORE LIKELY DAY-6/26TH-27TH. BY LATE DAY-5 AND EARLY DAY-6...OPEN-WAVE REMNANTS OF GULF OF AK CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING SEWD OVER NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. MAIN CONCERN NOW APPEARS TO BE MID-LATE DAY-6 OVER PORTIONS E TX AND ARKLATEX REGION...PERHAPS MANIFEST AS WELL-ORGANIZED...LOW-CAPE/STG-SHEAR NOCTURNAL EVENT. SLGT DISAGREEMENT IS EVIDENT ON TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF DAY-6 UPPER WAVE AND RELATED SFC FRONTAL ZONE AMONG ECMWF/SPECTRAL AND MOST MREF MEMBERS. HOWEVER...PROGS GENERALLY CONCUR WITH JUXTAPOSITION OF 100+ KT 250-MB JET MAX...FAVORABLY STG DEEP SHEAR...HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...INCREASINGLY MOIST WARM SECTOR INTRUDED BY STG COLD FRONT...AND PREFRONTAL DEW POINTS REACHING 60S F. SUCH SCENARIOS TYPICALLY YIELD AOA 30% COOL-SEASON/TOTAL-SVR RESULTS. SIMILAR POTENTIAL MAY CARRY OVER INTO DAY-7/27TH-28TH OVER PORTIONS MID-SOUTH...TN VALLEY AND/OR CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER...PHASE UNCERTAINTIES IN KEY FEATURES -- BOTH SFC AND UPPER AIR -- ARE LARGE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE UNCONDITIONAL 30% AREA THEN. ..EDWARDS.. 11/21/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Is this no longer an active threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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