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December 2012 General Discussion


Guru Of Reason

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Tomorrow looking very springlike. 18z NAM shows cape between 500-1000j/kg in a narrow swath ahead of the cold front later tomorrow. Decent swath of bulk shear values above 30kts. Very nice plume of theta-e feeding north ahead of the front as well. All models show a nice line of convection blowing up along the front later in the afternoon. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few isolated severe reports. With temps near 70, springlike humidity, and the potential for convection should make tomorrow pretty interesting.

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PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

118 PM CST SUN DEC 2 2012 /218 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2012/

..HOW RARE IS THE SPRING LIKE WARMTH WE ARE EXPERIENCING?

EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE AT LEAST 60 DEGREES AT

EVERY AIRPORT OBSERVATION SITE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND

NORTHWEST INDIANA.

USING DATA AT CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD FOR REFERENCE...PRIOR TO

TODAY...THERE HAD ONLY BEEN 71 DAYS THAT HAD REACHED 60 DEGREES

ON RECORD IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER IN CHICAGO AND ONLY 29 IN

ROCKFORD. RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1871 FOR CHICAGO AND 1906 FOR

ROCKFORD.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE EVEN WARMER MONDAY...WITH THE

METEOROLOGICAL SETUP SHOWING SIMILARITIES TO A COMPOSITE OF PAST

EXTREME WARM DECEMBER DAYS. WHILE 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT

CURRENTLY EXPLICITLY FORECAST FOR CHICAGO AND ROCKFORD...70 DEGREE

READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THERE

HAVE ONLY BEEN TWO 70 DEGREE DAYS IN CHICAGO DURING DECEMBER ON

RECORD. AS FOR ROCKFORD...NO 70 DEGREE DECEMBER DAYS HAVE BEEN

OBSERVED...WITH THE 67 DEGREES ON DEC 5 2001 BEING THE WARMEST.

RECORD HIGHS FOR DECEMBER 3RD:

CHICAGO: 71* (1970)

*THE ONLY OTHER DECEMBER 70 DEGREE DAY ON RECORD IN CHICAGO WAS 71

DEGREES ON DEC 2 1982.

ROCKFORD: 65 (1970)

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NWS

STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WARM IT WILL BE MONDAY.

SHOULD HAVE A WARM START TO THE DAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER

30S TO MIDDLE 40S. ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE

FORECAST AREA...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL

INVERSION WILL MIX OUT ALLOWING THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO WORK DOWN TO

THE SURFACE. IF THIS HAPPENS...TEMPERATURES COULD TOP OUT IN THE

LOWER 60S. HOWEVER...THE CONCERN IS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS THAT COME

IN TONIGHT WILL HELP THE STRENGTHEN THIS INVERSION AND NOT LET IT

MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS HAPPENS...TEMPERATURE RISES

WOULD BE MINIMAL WITH HIGHS MAYBE IN THE LOWER 50S.

ding ding ding... clouds and 50F tomorrow...bank it.. I need to move over by Saukville if I want high temps in the 60Fs and sunshine all day in December :sun:

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Was getting a little warm in the house before free AC kicked in.. Bears, Loins, Queens and 49'ers lose.. 670 the score in epic meltdown is on the radio in the background while prepping dinner.. Doesn't get much better.

In your "Kiss The Cook" Packers apron while taking swigs of Old Milwaukee? 670 post game is meatball heaven. But I can't lie, it's so much better listening after Bears losses. As much as it may pain me say so.

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In your "Kiss The Cook" Packers apron while taking swigs of Old Milwaukee? 670 post game is meatball heaven. But I can't lie, it's so much better listening after Bears losses. As much as it may pain me say so.

Living in Kenosha, I've had friends who have made the mistake of thinking Doug Buffone and Ed Obradovich as "sane and intelligent" thinkers on the Chicago Bears. I agree--it is more fun listening to them after a Bears loss. Pure entertainment.

Looking like things might get back to "normal" around here next weekend--really hoping they do. Hard to get in any Christmas mood with the weather being the way it has been.

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Had 0.22" of rain here last night and today. Very dark gray mild day.

Here is an interesting stat I never really heard of being kept. And it also goes to show you that while this mild air may be a bit extreme...its actually the norm to have a warm day or two in December. Just last week from Amazon I got a copy of "The Detroit Weather Book 1986", written by then-local met Mal Sillars (he is now in CO), and it has an amazing amount of local weather stats in there. Most of it is now online but in 1986 it would have been a weenies dream. But there were a few interesting things in the book I did not know about (including an interesting writeup on the April 1886 blizzard)....and one of them was the average max and min temp for each month of the year. This meaning, if you take the highest temp and lowest temp of each month of each year and average them. dont know if this was a 30-yr or period-of-record norm, but as of 1986, the average warmest temp in a December was 54F, the average lowest temp 5F.

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Just in the last few hours Weather Channel has upped tomorrow's predicted high here in Springfield--to 77! Crazy. And they are still referring to "near record high temperatures"--LOL. More like beating the all-time December record high of 74 (set Dec. 28, 1984) by three degrees.

Could it be very possible that there may be a small, isolated area somewhere around here that could even pop an 80 tomorrow--if TWC's prediction comes true or is even raised further before tomorrow?

I don't have the time to research this myself at this time, but has there been any known location within or close to the confines of this subforum's region that popped at least 80 degrees in December?

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One spring we drove from LaCrosse to Rochester (pick up brother) and then drove all nite down to Springfield, MO (Bass Pro Shops)... Thick fog the whole way through Iowa (I wasn't driving). Could hardly sleep because I thought we were going to die in a fiery wreck (this was the early 90's). I swear the guy driving never dropped below 85mph.

fog sucks..

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I just saw a couple of posts here, you may want to take some of the forecast highs with a grain of salt for tomorrow. Here in the TC's we were progged to get into the 50's, while that appeared to happen in western MN, we never got out of the clouds. I haven't looked yet, but I doubt MSP ever got out of the 30's. Just checked before I posted this, we did not get out of the 30's.

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One spring we drove from LaCrosse to Rochester (pick up brother) and then drove all nite down to Springfield, MO (Bass Pro Shops)... Thick fog the whole way through Iowa (I wasn't driving). Could hardly sleep because I thought we were going to die in a fiery wreck (this was the early 90's). I swear the guy driving never dropped below 85mph.

fog sucks..

sounds like you had luck on your side, BTW are you located in the river valley or on top of the bluffs, ARX has said it could be bad along the bluffs.

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