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December 2012 General Discussion


Guru Of Reason

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I mowed today. Really.

I mowed the lawn during the pre-Thanksgiving warmup, mostly just to mulch the leaves... but there definitely was some new growth getting clipped off then. I thought that seemed unusual, especially since the official records show November was colder than normal. But that week or so stretch just before the Holiday was also kind of unusual. The mean temps weren't far from the normal, but daytime highs were well above normal and lows normal to a little below, as diurnal ranges were running 20-30 degrees for several days with all of the sunshine. The normal diurnal range around here in November is only 14 or 15 degrees, due to the pervasive cloudiness.

I know Michsnowfreak sometimes likes to minimize warm months by blaming it on overnight lows, but last month was like the opposite. It was a cold month, but mainly due to chilly morning lows although highs did finish a bit below then current normals too. Though the current normals for November were also inflated quite a bit after 2010 due to a series of very mild Novembers the past ten years or so, and so I don't know how cold this November would have been in a historical sense.

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Record high at MLI tomorrow is 69, and the all-time Dec record is 71 (12/4/98). We have a shot at breaking both tomorrow.

Here's the composites for 68+ deg days in December in Chicago, which should correlate fairly well with MLI:

H5:

compday.140.90.75.204.336.8.42.0.gif

MSLP:

compday.140.90.75.204.336.9.7.17.gif

925 Temps:

compday.140.90.75.204.336.9.8.48.gif

850mb temps:

compday.140.90.75.204.336.9.9.30.gif

These are all pretty similar to model progs at those levels tomorrow, so agreed, near/around 70 is certainly possible.

Possible fly in the ointment: if skies clear enough tonight, radiational cooling could be pretty efficient for a while before warm front lifts north, and with mid-spring moisture content, could see fog and temperatures chasing down dewpoints lower than guidance tonight, which *might* make it tougher to reach 70.

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Got you all beat...

43F and thick stratus... Did see the sun for about 1 min a little while ago... Its "bright" outside... NWS forecast fail.

Still solid overcast here as well, but the clearing line is now less than 10 miles away. Should be sunny here by 2, or a little after. Looks like dense fog will reform this evening though as soon as the sun sets. The strong winds tomorrow should easily mix that out though.

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