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December 2012 General Discussion


Guru Of Reason

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One thing I'd watch out for with that second fropa late next week is the potential for a frontal wave to develop on it. None of the OP runs really doing much with it, but there's a bit of additional energy in the base of the main l/w trough that might induce some sfc development. A couple of the GEFS members at 18z were hinting at the potential.

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Ahh, Dec 1 2006, a beauty. We just missed the heaviest axis of 12"+, but still managed a bit over 10". It was the only snowstorm I can ever remember to go from not a single flake to heavy snow in less than a half hour. Even on the evening of the event it was very hard to tell how much we would get, as most models had an extreme gradient right through here. Some showed a few inches, while others showed a foot. It was a nail biter to be sure. The snow seemed to take forever to get in here. It slowly backed in from the southeast, and shortly after midnight the wall of snow slammed through. The winds had been pretty light all evening, but as soon as the snow arrived they picked up and became very gusty. Kind of weird how the winds correlated with the snowfall like that.

Here's an animation I did a year or two ago from the DVN radar....

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While we're talking about past snow storms, while not technically all of December, some of this snow fell on the eve. I, of course missed most of it as the rain/snow line was right over me.

snow200801021003.png

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

220 PM EST TUE JAN 01 2008

NEW YEARS DAY 2008 WILL GO DOWN AS NOT ONLY THE SNOWIEST NEW YEARS

ON RECORD...BUT ALSO AS ONE OF THE MOST INTENSE SNOWSTORMS IN

RECORDED HISTORY OVER A LARGE SECTION OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

BETWEEN 12 AND 16 INCHES OF SNOW FELL IN A SWATH ORIENTED SOUTHWEST

TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...ROUGHLY FROM BRIGHTON IN SOUTH

LIVINGSTON COUNTY TO LEXINGTON IN SOUTHEAST ST CLAIR COUNTY.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS QUICKLY TAPERED OFF BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS

AREA.

A TIGHTLY PACKED LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE

VICINITY OF DOWNTOWN DETROIT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HEAVY

SNOW FELL TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THIS TRACK AND FELL STEADILY AT A

RATE OF NEARLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR FROM ROUGHLY MIDNIGHT TO 7AM.

SNOWFALL RATES ACTUALLY APPROACHED 4 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES

BETWEEN 4AM AND 6AM ALONG THE M59 AND I69 CORRIDORS. THERE WERE ALSO

SEVERAL REPORTS OF THUNDERSNOW DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME. THE BULK

OF THE SNOWFALL...INCLUDING THE REPORTS IN EXCESS OF ONE FOOT...FELL

IN LESS THAN 7 HOURS...MAKING THIS TRULY ONE OF THE MOST INTENSE

SNOWS ON RECORD.

THE FOLLOWING REPORTS ARE FINAL SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THIS UNUSUALLY

ROBUST AND QUICK HITTING SNOWSTORM.

NEW SNOWFALL REPORTS

NEW PERIOD STORM SNOW

LOCATION SNOW (HRS) TOTAL DEPTH LAT LON

...LAPEER...

DRYDEN 16.0 42.94N 83.12W

IMLAY CITY 13.0 43.01N 83.07W

ELBA 8.0

NORTH BRANCH 6.5 43.22N 83.19W

...ST CLAIR...

CAPAC 16.0 43.01N 82.92W

YALE 13.0 43.12N 82.79W

BLAINE 12.0

RUBY 9.0 43.04N 82.60W

...SANILAC...

LEXINGTON 12.3 43.26N 82.53W

MARLETTE 7.5 43.32N 83.08W

...LIVINGSTON...

GREGORY 12.0

BRIGHTON 12.0 42.53N 83.78W

HOWELL 10.0 42.60N 83.93W

...OAKLAND...

LAKE ORION 15.5 42.78N 83.24W

CLARKSTON 15.5 42.73N 83.42W

WHITE LAKE 13.2 42.65N 83.50W

HIGHLAND 12.0 42.63N 83.61W

MILFORD 12.0 42.58N 83.60W

WATERFORD 11.5 42.66N 83.38W

AUBURN HILLS 11.0

HOLLY 9.0 42.79N 83.62W

WALLED LAKE 9.0

FARMINGTON HILLS 7.5

...GENESEE...

5 NE OF FLINT 9.5 43.02N 83.69W

GRAND BLANC 9.5

FLINT BISHOP AIRPORT 8.6

...MACOMB...

ARMADA 9.0

UTICA 6.5 42.62N 83.02W

STERLING HEIGHTS 3.0 42.58N 83.03W

FRASER 4.0 42.53N 82.94W

EASTPOINTE 2.0

...WASHTENAW...

ANN ARBOR 10.5

WHITMORE LAKE 10.4 42.42N 83.74W

CHELSEA 10.0 42.31N 84.02W

MANCHESTER 6.8 42.14N 84.03W

YPSILANTI 6.5 42.24N 83.62W

...WAYNE...

PLYMOUTH 7.0

CANTON 7.0

NORTHVILLE 7.0

WESTLAND 5.0 42.31N 83.38W

DETROIT METRO AIRPORT 4.0

DETROIT CITY 4.0

WYANDOTTE 1.7

...LENAWEE...

2 SE OF CEMENT CITY 9.5 42.06N 84.32W

TIPTON 6.0 42.01N 84.06W

HUDSON 5.2 41.85N 84.34W

BLISSFIELD 0.5 41.83N 83.86W

...MONROE...

MILAN 3.0 42.08N 83.68W

SAMARIA 0.9 43.21N 82.98W

MONROE TRACE 41.91N 83.38W

...BAY...

AUBURN 1.8 43.60N 84.07W

...HURON...

HARBOR BEACH 5.0 43.84N 82.65W

PORT HOPE 0.9 43.93N 82.71W

...SAGINAW...

OAKLEY 5.0 43.14N 84.16W

BRIDGEPORT 5.5 43.37N 83.88W

FREELAND 2.0 43.52N 84.11W

HEMLOCK 2.0 43.41N 84.23W

SAGINAW 3.2 43.41N 83.94W

...SHIAWASSEE...

OWOSSO 6.2 42.99N 84.17W

...TUSCOLA...

FAIRGROVE 5.0 43.52N 83.54W

CARO 5.0 43.48N 83.40W

2 W OF MARLETTE 7.0

&&

THANKS TO EVERYONE WHO TOOK THE TIME TO MEASURE SNOW AND CONTACT THE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THIS MORNING.

FROM ALL OF US HERE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WE WOULD LIKE TO

WISH EVERYONE A SAFE AND HAPPY NEW YEAR!

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And now this rears its ugly head

.A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL

U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD...WITH ACCOMPANYING ASCENT

MAXIMIZED OVER ITS NRN EXTENT. THE CORRESPONDING MASS RESPONSE WILL

YIELD AN INFLUX OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES

REGION...WHERE ASCENT AT THE TERMINUS OF A LOW-LEVEL JET MAX MAY

SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE.

VERY MARGINAL BUOYANCY PROFILES AND WEAK EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR

MAGNITUDES PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL MITIGATE ANY SVR POTENTIAL.

post-154-0-37443200-1354371166_thumb.gif

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Nothing wrong with a few non-severe storms. At the very least it would be some rain that many areas need, albeit in an isolated to scattered nature.

Didn't mean to imply there was anything wrong with non sever Thunderstorms especially in a drought, , only in how it applies to the first day of Met Winter....

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Didn't mean to imply there was anything wrong with non sever Thunderstorms especially in a drought, , only in how it applies to the first day of Met Winter....

Oh I know, to me though even with it being the first day of Meteorological Winter, I find the prospects of storms interesting. Sure if it were snow that would be better, but I'll take this over no weather.

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While we're talking about past snow storms, while not technically all of December, some of this snow fell on the eve. I, of course missed most of it as the rain/snow line was right over me.

To this day I still cringe at that storm map. I still hold a grudge with the local mets about that.

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Happy meteorological winter! 44 °F with precipitation developing off to the west, everyone can thank me for the rain today since I washed my car yesterday.

Arctic Oscillation sharply negative, probably going to have some polar air rushing this way soon. Long range GFS is hinting at that.

ao.obs.gif

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While we're talking about past snow storms, while not technically all of December, some of this snow fell on the eve. I, of course missed most of it as the rain/snow line was right over me.

snow200801021003.png

I felt bad for Josh after this one. That storm made for an awesome New years.

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To this day I still cringe at that storm map. I still hold a grudge with the local mets about that.

You and me both... All I can remember is sitting in the truck at the salt pile waiting for the big storm, ZILCH here. Even the comma shape of the radar makes me want to puke.

Oh to be making these again. Can't wait !!!

post-7675-0-90032800-1354382125_thumb.jp

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The Anniversary of the Snowstorm of December 1st, 1974

Back in 2000; I wrote what I called "A Tale of Two Storms" which paralleled the two biggest snowstorms (in amount) to ever hit Metro Detroit. The second storm in the article, I will never forget as I worked it during my first year as a novice with the NWS. To this day, I have yet to see a storm quite like it; as far as the magnitude it snowed and for such a long period of time! Many of you may remember it, it came at the end of Thanksgiving weekend on Sunday the 1st. Enjoy!

http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2012/12/the-anniversary-of-snowstorm-of.html

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