KeenerWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 NMM has a dot of .25+ over MBY...these things are only long shots but they're also the only thing that broke my futility streak. I'd favor the WI/IL border area right now. EDIT: RAP, HRR and NMM continue to advertise a band hugging the cook co shore line later. Lake effect is fickle enough; meso-lows just throw an extra wrench in the equation. A rudimentary look does indeed suggest that conditions would be somewhat favorable for a meso-low formation. Where it goes and what it does, who knows. IWX WRF does a little dumpage mid lake before moving on shore as a horseshoe shaped band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It is Muskegon, Michigan's turn! That baby better sit over us and dump! I noticed last night Muskegon was brushed by a 20-25dbz snow shower on the west side of town! Not sure if you saw anything, but I think tomorrow you will. Waking up to about 26° with steel gray skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Could you post the link, Alek? Thanks in advance. This is a 1-3" event best case scenario and NCEP site is having issues but... HRRR http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=t7&run_time=27+Dec+2012+-+11Z RAP http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=12&model_dd=27&model_init_hh=12&fhour=06¶meter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false## Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 MSN fairly close to breaking into their top 10 snowiest December list (records since 1884). 20.7" so far this December. 40.4" in 2008 35.0" in 2000 33.5" in 2007 32.8" in 1987 26.8" in 2009 24.6" in 1977 24.0" in 1985 23.9" in 1887 23.1" in 1909 23.0" in 1978, 1990 This is in play it looks like. They're still at 20.7", with MKX thinking 2-4" totals for tomorrow's snowfall at MSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 NAM is trending less impressive with the weak system for S. WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Too bad there wasn't more spacing between the current system that just rolled through and the upcoming southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 light mood dust starting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 NAM is trending less impressive with the weak system for S. WI looks further south with the snow to me. .25"+ liquid in northeast IL. 1-2" locally 3" area wide on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 looks further south with the snow to me. .25"+ liquid in northeast IL. 1-2" locally 3" area wide on this run. Their loss is our gain on this run but it just isn't that impressive. It's possible someone in geos land could manage a respectable 3-4" combined system and LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 looks further south with the snow to me. .25"+ liquid in northeast IL. 1-2" locally 3" area wide on this run. I think it is looking better for here too? It looks like it might gain strength or moisture in MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 looks further south with the snow to me. .25"+ liquid in northeast IL. 1-2" locally 3" area wide on this run. probably contaminated with overzealous LE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I think those high-res models are overdoing the lake effect today. Moisture looks pretty pathetic in the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I think those high-res models are overdoing the lake effect today. Moisture looks pretty pathetic in the DGZ. very much agree, the set-up in the wake of the weak friday system looks better but that's not saying much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 very much agree, the set-up in the wake of the weak friday system looks better but that's not saying much For sure. Although the 12z NAM didn't trend in the right direction. I feel confident with the combined lake enhancement and possible mesolow areas along the lake should see at least a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 nam lulz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 probably contaminated with overzealous LE Right along the lake yeah. The LES is almost non-existant so far today. Since NCEP is down - off of the meteocentre site: NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Right along the lake yeah. The LES is almost non-existant so far today. Since NCEP is down - off of the meteocentre site: NAM the HRRR is doing fine...it has been light dust here all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 fwiw, with ncep down use http://www.twisterdata.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looked like my car was salted this morning! I guess the LES is stronger then last night! That's not saying much though. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Full on respectable light snow EDIT: probably one of the better 5 dbz snows in some time, vis probably down to 3/4 mile at best If this band hangs on as long as the RAP indicates, we might add another half inch. Props to hi-res models, they nailed this. GFS also better for N IL with friday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 single pixel of 20 dbz over downtown associated with weak meso-low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Their loss is our gain on this run but it just isn't that impressive. It's possible someone in geos land could manage a respectable 3-4" combined system and LE. Still looks like .2" QPF for me. Most of the models I have seen are showing around or just north of Milwaukee being the likeliest area to see 3-4". In fact, HPC has a speck of 40% probability of 4" or more just north of Milwaukee in Saukville territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 fwiw, with ncep down use http://www.twisterdata.com/ Or www.wxcaster.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Still looks like .2" QPF for me. Most of the models I have seen are showing around or just north of Milwaukee being the likeliest area to see 3-4". In fact, HPC has a speck of 40% probability of 4" or more just north of Milwaukee in Saukville territory. we'll see, NAM was wetter over IL as is the 12z GFS, could easily just be blips. Still a high end light snow here in Chicago...trying to squeek out my second low probability lake snow of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GFS also better for N IL with friday event.Looks pretty much like the last run QPF wise...0.10"+ into NE. IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looks pretty much like the last run QPF wise...0.10"+ into NE. IL. 6z and 12z (could just be timing) but 48 hr now with .2+ into NE IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looks like a few 15dbz returns heading for Chicago in the next half hour. Also the ewall site is helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 6z and 12z (could just be timing) but 48 hr now with .2+ into NE ILMy bad. 6z run was auto set to 99hr total when I pulled it up. Alas it is a bit wetter...not good for futility followers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Still looking at 1 to 3 here... After it looks like the bottom drops out in temps..l. GFS shows subzero readings here (-13F Tues morning).... Nice warm up coming in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 My bad. 6z run was auto set to 99hr total when I pulled it up. Alas it is a bit wetter...not good for futility followers. IMBY futility was trashed anyways. 12z is a good run for me, .3" with hint of LE Still a decent quality light snow in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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