michsnowfreak Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 ORD: 8.5" Under DTW: 9.7" Under IND: 6.9" Under MKE: 10.6" Over STL: 4.4" Under Toronto Downtown: 12.7" Under Reasoning for each: Alek says it may not snow at all in Chicago this winter. I'm convinced. Gut feeling, but it's close. They finish at 9.6". A terrible snow town. BowMe has had a good attitude towards the slow start. He gets rewarded. And I have a bet to win. 6.7" on Christmas Eve as a bonus call. When's the last time it snowed in St. Louis, 2010? T Blizzard has cancelled December 22 times on this board already. only 22 times I would survive with 9.6" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 only 22 times I would survive with 9.6" lol. Ya.. That doesn't include his cancels in the NE thread either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 So I was thinking about how snow really does rule most of our roosts here (save for the tropicals of the world). Last November DTW saw 0.6" of snow (Nov 30th). This Nov they saw 0.4" (0.1" on 23rd, 0.3" on 25th). So some may say "this reminds me of last year". Never mind this Nov was about 7F colder and saw well over 5" less of precip (Shall I mention, in 2010 just a T of snow fell in Nov...do you think anyone remembered that 70" later in April? ). What Im getting at....As much as we all love the weather for all its aspects, you know snow is THE determining factor for how a month is remembered, not temps. For instance, and you can insert your own airport code lol...lets say DTW finished Dec with a departure of +1F and just 4" of snow we will hear how it was a sorta torchy non-wintry month. If DTW finishes at +1F but with 15" of snow we will hear how it was a seasonable month with some good snow. If DTW finishes at -4F and just 4" of snow, we will hear it was kinda cold but dry hell. If DTW finished at -2F and 15" of snow we will hear it was a very cold, snowy month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 ORD: 8.5" Under DTW: 9.7" Under IND: 6.9" Under MKE: 10.6" Over STL: 4.4" Under Toronto Downtown: 12.7" Under Reasoning for each: Alek says it may not snow at all in Chicago this winter. I'm convinced. Gut feeling, but it's close. They finish at 9.6". A terrible snow town. BowMe has had a good attitude towards the slow start. He gets rewarded. And I have a bet to win. 6.7" on Christmas Eve as a bonus call. When's the last time it snowed in St. Louis, 2010? T Blizzard has cancelled December 22 times on this board already. First half of the way to Christmas doesn't have me too excited for much frozen precip here. Probably going to have to take a few rain/mix events before things hopefully become more favorable sub-forum wide.. Maybe an area not up north can thread the needle and score something though. As for the 6.7" on Christmas Eve...I love your optimism but it just doesn't want to snow much here on the 24th or 25th.. I can't remember one christmas eve or day that my dad has had to work extended hrs removing snow at the airport. 2008 was a close call but the snow ended early enough on christmas eve where it didn't interfere with xmas eve party.. Combining all the snows on the 24th/25th and I don't even know if it would add up to 6.7" in the last 20 or so yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Crap, sorry...those were my predictions. How about just using the normal Dec snowfall for a few sites? ORD: 8.5" DTW: 9.7" IND: 6.9" MKE: 10.6" STL: 4.4" Toronto Downtown: 12.7" under across the board. DTW has the best prospects for normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 under across the board. DTW has the best prospects for normal I'm very interested in why you think that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I'm very interested in why you think that. I guess i'd toss toronto into that mix as well but if we see cold in the region, I'd favor the eastern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Final outlook for December. I'm on board. Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I guess i'd toss toronto into that mix as well but if we see cold in the region, I'd favor the eastern sections. Really?? You favor a storm track east of Detroit in December when areas to the west have little to know snow cover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I'd bet a pair of dirty underwear that December finishes below normal in precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Nasty looking CFS for December...of course it is for the entire month and the weeklies that were run recently did look cooler for the 2nd half. Still at some point you have to wonder if the positive departures that are racked up early on may be too difficult to overcome. Given that the Oct 30 outlook for November did ok with the general layout it will be interesting to see what happens. Anything less than most of the country being in positive territory would not be a very good outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 This is gonna get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Nasty looking CFS for December...of course it is for the entire month and the weeklies that were run recently did look cooler for the 2nd half. Still at some point you have to wonder if the positive departures that are racked up early on may be too difficult to overcome. Given that the Oct 30 outlook for November did ok with the general layout it will be interesting to see what happens. Anything less than most of the country being in positive territory would not be a very good outlook. The departures could be tainted by the mild spell that is yet to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 216 on the 12z EURO Just need that Pacific ridge to poke further north into the GOA/AK, and this'd be a decent shot of a winter storm with that l/w trough being carved out in the plains. As it is verbatim, it'll likely be warm. Probably doesn't serve too much of a purpose to excessively analysis a EURO plot that's going to change 100 times, but since the other two storms/FROPAs next week are almost certainly going to be warm for most of us, it's tough not to look ahead a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 ORD: 8.5" under DTW: 9.7" within 0.5" IND: 6.9" under MKE: 10.6" over STL: 4.4" under Toronto Downtown: 12.7" over I think December will be below normal in our northern subforum and above normal south of I-70 roughly. Those CFS monthly outlooks have been "off" for awhile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 991 over huron @ 240. 0z run had the storm as well but much further SE. 12z GFS ensembles offer no support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Crap, sorry...those were my predictions. How about just using the normal Dec snowfall for a few sites? ORD: 8.5" OVER DTW: 9.7" UNDER IND: 6.9" UNDER MKE: 10.6" OVER STL: 4.4" UNDER Toronto Downtown: 12.7" UNDER I'm going to go with a gradient like pattern that sets up on the periphery of the snowcover. Thus, areas to the N & W cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 991 over huron @ 240. 0z run had the storm as well but much further SE. 12z GFS ensembles offer no support. Occludes pretty quickly so maybe not as warm as I thought. Ridge out west gets flattened at 240 and pacific jet starts to rage but our storm in the Lakes might try and set up a blocky -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Occludes pretty quickly so maybe not as warm as I thought. Ridge out west gets flattened at 240 and pacific jet starts to rage but our storm in the Lakes might try and set up a blocky -NAO. It's certainly the period to watch...consensus looks pretty good up until 180 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Nasty looking CFS for December...of course it is for the entire month and the weeklies that were run recently did look cooler for the 2nd half. Still at some point you have to wonder if the positive departures that are racked up early on may be too difficult to overcome. Given that the Oct 30 outlook for November did ok with the general layout it will be interesting to see what happens. Anything less than most of the country being in positive territory would not be a very good outlook. And the final verdict? Torch! the CFS was much too warm for the eastern third of the nation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 the CFS was much too warm for the eastern third of the nation Yes, but the general idea of coolest anomalies in the Mid Atlantic/Southeast with much of the western/central US above average was correct. The Dec run has coast to coast warmth...if like 75% of the country ends up + then I'd consider it a pretty good success. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Occludes pretty quickly so maybe not as warm as I thought. Ridge out west gets flattened at 240 and pacific jet starts to rage but our storm in the Lakes might try and set up a blocky -NAO. We need some sac pop ups. Build a snow pack to our NW and helps start a block party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Final outlook for December. I'm on board. Love it! Appreciate all the CFS maps you post...and Im sure you didnt do this on purpose, but when you submitted your post it cut off the latest cfs week 3 & 4 anomalies you always post. Here, I will attach it for you: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Those week 3 and 4 anamolies ought to even things out a bit east of the MS River! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Happy Anniversary one of my favorites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Happy Anniversary one of my favorites I remember this storm. I was pretty PO'ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 I remember this storm. I was pretty PO'ed. Oakland County was the only county in the Detroit area to be under a WSWatch. It was a big miss. I recall 2-3" before the rain/dry slot came in. But not 100% sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Oakland County was the only county in the Detroit area to be under a WSWatch. It was a big miss. I recall 2-3" before the rain/dry slot came in. But not 100% sure. That storm had the biggest NW trend ever. Even the day of the event, we had a Winter Storm Warning for 4-7 inches of snow. We ended up with a little sleet that turned to rain with a temp in the low 40s. The wind turned SW so the low must have went west of here which is amazing considering the forecast just a day or so earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Happy 4th Birthday! 11/30-12/1 2008 DOB LOCATION SNOWFALL DURATION (INCHES) (HOURS) LAT LON ...GENESEE COUNTY... FLINT M 4.2 18 43.02N 83.69W LINDEN M 5.0 18 42.82N 83.78W ...LAPEER COUNTY... NORTH BRANCH M 4.0 20 43.23N 83.19W LUM M 5.4 18 43.10N 83.15W ...LIVINGSTON COUNTY... HOWELL M 5.4 18 42.61N 83.94W ...MIDLAND COUNTY... MIDLAND M 4.2 18 43.62N 84.23W ...OAKLAND COUNTY... FARMINGTON HILLS M 1.8 18 42.49N 83.38W MILFORD M 3.7 18 42.59N 83.60W HOLLY M 4.0 18 42.80N 83.62W WHITE LAKE M 5.4 18 42.65N 83.50W ORTONVILLE M 6.3 18 42.85N 83.44W ...SAGINAW COUNTY... SAGINAW M 4.0 18 43.42N 83.95W 9 W SAGINAW M 5.2 18 43.42N 84.13W 5 W CHESANING M 7.0 20 43.18N 84.22W ...SANILAC COUNTY... DECKERVILLE M 4.0 18 43.53N 82.74W BROWN CITY M 6.1 20 43.21N 82.99W MARLETTE M 8.6 20 43.33N 83.08W ...SHIAWASSEE COUNTY... CORUNNA M 5.0 15 42.98N 84.12W OWOSSO M 5.8 20 43.00N 84.18W PERRY M 6.0 15 42.82N 84.23W ...TUSCOLA COUNTY... FAIRGROVE M 4.0 15 43.52N 83.54W ...WASHTENAW COUNTY... ANN ARBOR M 2.6 18 42.28N 83.73W I do have a photo! Good Ole Lake Orion. (SEMI's Snowbelt) Awesome Storm about 5-6" worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Happy Anniversary one of my favorites That was an awesome storm! Quick hitting too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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