December 2012 General Discussion

[Jonger]

Urban Heat Island always makes me cringe. Most major American cities were much more urban decades ago. The proper terminology should be Suburban Heat Island as dense urban cities shrink and suburban sprawl development takes hold far from the urban core. I wouldn't be surprised if some urban rust belt neighborhoods have cooled a bit with the decline of factories and numerous buildings being razed with weed lots as replacements.

Suburbs create heat just as much as urban centers... The term is very valid in the broad context.

Take a drive from Detroit to Howell on a sunny May evening... Temp at ground level will drop 10 degree between Detroit and Novi.

[Geos]

Urban Heat Island always makes me cringe. Most major American cities were much more urban decades ago. The proper terminology should be Suburban Heat Island as dense urban cities shrink and suburban sprawl development takes hold far from the urban core. I wouldn't be surprised if some urban rust belt neighborhoods have cooled a bit with the decline of factories and numerous buildings being razed with weed lots as replacements.

That's an important point about there is a difference between Suburban and older Urban areas and how they are/were developed. Definitely more concrete and heat absorbing surfaces in the older urban cores with concrete, steel and brick buildings. The heat content is lower in the suburbs with more green spaces and less concrete. I know in some areas like SLC buildings have started putting up aluminum roofs on some of the commericial buildings to cut down on the UHI.

The heat stored in one square mile would definitely be lower in a newer suburb vs. urban core (particularly older urban core).

I would be interesting to see the thermal differences of rust belt towns from when they were in full swing to now.

[Geos]

lol.

Finally made it above freezing this afternoon with the sun.

Oops! Lol

Wind Shield! Not sure snow can get stuck to the wind chill!

[weatherbo]

pretty intense lake band hugging the shore. should be good for a quick 2".

[Chinook]

Best storm of my life, right there.

Flint MI

December 12, 2000, 0753z (3:00AM) 19*F, NNW at 26 gusting to 37 knots, 3/4 mile visibility, heavy snow

http://greatlakes.salsite.com/2000_dec_11_12_flint_obs.html

ARB: wind gusts to 33 knots

DTW: wind gusts to 32 knots

PTK: wind gusts to 37 knots

[Trent]

Anyone else notice this proposed change, I see a few offices are participating in the demonstration:

http://nws.weather.gov/haz_simp/messages.php?wfo=APX

[michsnowfreak]

Winters are warmer no doubt about it, but dismissing UHI at ORD is kinda dumb. Alas, the 60's and 70's into the early 80's had some of coldest winters on record for Chicago (and the country) as well. There's certainly been a reversal since, overall.

If I did such a study for Detroit, it would be so very skewed. First off, DTW in in the 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s was a radiating magnet. UHI began later in the '80s and is full-fledged now with DTW the "hot spot" most nights. There is absolutely no denying that, and area mets (ie Deedler) will matter-of-factly tell you that. In addition...DTW's best radiating days also coincided with the regions coldest winters, so that only magnifies that. You can pick and choose whatever station you like...winters of the 1970s in this area were colder than any other decade (and this is even after you include the few mild winters like '72-73). Also....Detroits official data was at Detroit City Airport from 1934-66, and DTW 1966-present. Detroit city is certainly more urban, but its also not right downtown (like the measurments of 1874-1933). But IN ADDITION to having less ideal radiating conditions at DET, the region was plagued with a lot of mild winters in the 1930s-1950s. I would never start a data-set for Detroit in 1960, because thats basically knowing Im starting right after a 30-year "warm cycle" ended and gave way to a 30-year "cool cycle".

As we all know...max temps are not influenced NEARLY as much by UHI or anything, so I think the next project Ill work on (shouldnt take too long) is the number of days with high temps at or below 32F each winter season. I think thats a good gauge for a cold winter day.

By the way, a wintry nip in the air today with highs in the mid-30s and cloudy skies. So much for those who said day 1 of the pattern change that wasnt would have highs in the mid-40s.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Anyone else notice this proposed change, I see a few offices are participating in the demonstration:

http://nws.weather.g...ges.php?wfo=APX

Including Hawaii.... I can only assume they get some snow in the mountains???

[daddylonglegs]

Yup...Mauna Kea can get a lot of snow. You can go snorkeling and take a hike in a rainforest and snowboard in the same day.

[daddylonglegs]

Roads are snow covered again here... Once that sun (what little there is) goes down, the snow starts sticking.

[Trent]

If I did such a study for Detroit, it would be so very skewed. First off, DTW in in the 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s was a radiating magnet. UHI began later in the '80s and is full-fledged now with DTW the "hot spot" most nights. There is absolutely no denying that, and area mets (ie Deedler) will matter-of-factly tell you that. In addition...DTW's best radiating days also coincided with the regions coldest winters, so that only magnifies that. You can pick and choose whatever station you like...winters of the 1970s in this area were colder than any other decade (and this is even after you include the few mild winters like '72-73). Also....Detroits official data was at Detroit City Airport from 1934-66, and DTW 1966-present. Detroit city is certainly more urban, but its also not right downtown (like the measurments of 1874-1933). But IN ADDITION to having less ideal radiating conditions at DET, the region was plagued with a lot of mild winters in the 1930s-1950s. I would never start a data-set for Detroit in 1960, because thats basically knowing Im starting right after a 30-year "warm cycle" ended and gave way to a 30-year "cool cycle".

As we all know...max temps are not influenced NEARLY as much by UHI or anything, so I think the next project Ill work on (shouldnt take too long) is the number of days with high temps at or below 32F each winter season. I think thats a good gauge for a cold winter day.

By the way, a wintry nip in the air today with highs in the mid-30s and cloudy skies. So much for those who said day 1 of the pattern change that wasnt would have highs in the mid-40s.

What kind of significant development would have occurred in the vicinity of DTW in the 80s to cause this? It seems most of the suburbs out that way were long built out by then.

[Jonger]

What kind of significant development would have occurred in the vicinity of DTW in the 80s to cause this? It seems most of the suburbs out that way were long built out by then.

There is a lot of manufacturing around the airport now, but I'm no DTW expert....

During the next decade the remaining passenger traffic at Willow Run gradually shifted to Metro Airport, and the North Terminal (later renamed the Davey Terminal) opened in 1966 to accommodate the new arrivals. Growing international traffic necessitated the building of a third terminal, the Michael Berry International Terminal, in 1974. The last of its original three parallel runways (3R/21L) was completed in 1976. A new parallel cross winds runway (9R/27L) opened in 1993.^[8]

I would assume UHI at the airport would increase after those late 70's additions... That A LOT of pavement.

[Trent]

There is a lot of manufacturing around the airport now, but I'm no DTW expert....

During the next decade the remaining passenger traffic at Willow Run gradually shifted to Metro Airport, and the North Terminal (later renamed the Davey Terminal) opened in 1966 to accommodate the new arrivals. Growing international traffic necessitated the building of a third terminal, the Michael Berry International Terminal, in 1974. The last of its original three parallel runways (3R/21L) was completed in 1976. A new parallel cross winds runway (9R/27L) opened in 1993.^[8]

I would assume UHI at the airport would increase after those late 70's additions... That A LOT of pavement.

Yeah. Looking at historic aerials website the airport really added a lot of pavement and terminal space. That expansion was probably enough alone to change the temps recorded there versus any new homes built within a few miles.

[Stebo]

Yeah. Looking at historic aerials website the airport really added a lot of pavement and terminal space. That expansion was probably enough alone to change the temps recorded there versus any new homes built within a few miles.

Temps are warm because of all the concrete, they have added quite a bit more in the recent years when the McNamara Terminal was built.

[Powerball]

If I did such a study for Detroit, it would be so very skewed. First off, DTW in in the 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s was a radiating magnet. UHI began later in the '80s and is full-fledged now with DTW the "hot spot" most nights. There is absolutely no denying that, and area mets (ie Deedler) will matter-of-factly tell you that. In addition...DTW's best radiating days also coincided with the regions coldest winters, so that only magnifies that. You can pick and choose whatever station you like...winters of the 1970s in this area were colder than any other decade (and this is even after you include the few mild winters like '72-73). Also....Detroits official data was at Detroit City Airport from 1934-66, and DTW 1966-present. Detroit city is certainly more urban, but its also not right downtown (like the measurments of 1874-1933). But IN ADDITION to having less ideal radiating conditions at DET, the region was plagued with a lot of mild winters in the 1930s-1950s. I would never start a data-set for Detroit in 1960, because thats basically knowing Im starting right after a 30-year "warm cycle" ended and gave way to a 30-year "cool cycle".

As we all know...max temps are not influenced NEARLY as much by UHI or anything, so I think the next project Ill work on (shouldnt take too long) is the number of days with high temps at or below 32F each winter season. I think thats a good gauge for a cold winter day.

By the way, a wintry nip in the air today with highs in the mid-30s and cloudy skies. So much for those who said day 1 of the pattern change that wasnt would have highs in the mid-40s.

Don't forget that the area around City Airport has now basically reverted back to rural land. I imagine all of those urban prairies radiate much better now than the densely packed homes and infrastructure that was in place in the 1950s-1970s.

[SpartyOn]

DTW riding dirty.... Sitting at +9.6 (temps) for the month.

and yes....I and we, know its only the 11th.

[daddylonglegs]

Great jogging weather... No wind, temps in the 20Fs and thick snowcover. So quiet out there...snow really is an excellent insulator.

edit: Temp is 18F... felt warmer.. Must be getting acclimated to colder temps.

[cyclone77]

QC moved into 2nd place for longest streak without measurable snow today. Need to make it to the 19th to tie. The unique combination of an early last snow and delayed snow this season is probably pretty hard to do.

QUAD CITIES (PERIOD OF SNOWFALL RECORDS : 1882-CURRENT)

RANK # DAYS END DATE

1 290 12/ 5/1908

2 281 12/ 1/1990

3 279 12/ 8/2012*

4 276 12/18/2001

5 276 12/ 8/1948

Ended up hitting 35 for a high today.

[Jonger]

12 inches in Cheboygan last night.. i would head up if it was a bigger area that got hit... much thinner band than Kalkaska 2 weeks ago.

[michsnowfreak]

I had 2 days with snow in Oct, 7 days in Nov...and 0 so far in Dec. While I can certainly remember Decembers with almost no snow before Christmas (1998 and 2001), it is still very weird that Ive yet to even pick up a T this December (last snow here was Nov 25th). Detroit actually did have one December (1889) where not a flake fell the entire month (the only such DJF month on record....that year we did not see a single flake of snow from November 30 until January 8) but still this is weird. I always think of December as the month with flakes dancing in the air on a sometimes daily basis, but Im sure the lake plays into that, as Jan-Feb are more wintry months overall. Even last December, 11 days had snow reported (7 days measurable), even though it was a sloppy, very mild month. Will be interesting to see when the first flakes are reported.

[daddylonglegs]

Beautiful sunny morning with snow still sticking to all the trees... temps in the 20Fs...

Sounds like the wind (south) is really suppose to blow here today...30 or better at times.

[hawkeye_wx]

I finally heard a local met on the radio this morning talk about Cedar Rapids' snow drought. The QC nws has only been talking about the QC record. CR has about 10 days to go to break the snowless record and models suggest it's very possible.

[Jonger]

I had 2 days with snow in Oct, 7 days in Nov...and 0 so far in Dec. While I can certainly remember Decembers with almost no snow before Christmas (1998 and 2001), it is still very weird that Ive yet to even pick up a T this December (last snow here was Nov 25th). Detroit actually did have one December (1889) where not a flake fell the entire month (the only such DJF month on record....that year we did not see a single flake of snow from November 30 until January 8) but still this is weird. I always think of December as the month with flakes dancing in the air on a sometimes daily basis, but Im sure the lake plays into that, as Jan-Feb are more wintry months overall. Even last December, 11 days had snow reported (7 days measurable), even though it was a sloppy, very mild month. Will be interesting to see when the first flakes are reported.

I have had a few coatings and probably a good 5 days with flakes flying, heck we had a decent snow shower or two yesterday.

[wisconsinwx]

Only two weeks left until we would tie the futility record for the latest day with no measurable snow, December 26th. I think we'll match and exceed it, that's how pessimistic I am, and since nothing is working, I hope we match it. I don't want a stinking 0.1" to come between us and the record.

[Brewers]

Only two weeks left until we would tie the futility record for the latest day with no measurable snow, December 26th. I think we'll match and exceed it, that's how pessimistic I am, and since nothing is working, I hope we match it. I don't want a stinking 0.1" to come between us and the record.

I agree, we've already gone 3/4 of a year without measurable snow might as well add a few more weeks to the record. Heck, I hope we break every snow futility record Milwuakee has.

[cyclone77]

I finally heard a local met on the radio this morning talk about Cedar Rapids' snow drought. The QC nws has only been talking about the QC record. CR has about 10 days to go to break the snowless record and models suggest it's very possible.

They had CR on the DVN site a few days ago but for some reason they took it off.

[wisconsinwx]

I agree, we've already gone 3/4 of a year without measurable snow might as well add a few more weeks to the record. Heck, I hope we break every snow futility record Milwuakee has.

Yeah, it would be funny if we're still in January or (gulp) even February with only a trace recorded. I know it's inconceivable that we could go through the whole month of January without measurable snow, but in weather anything can happen.

[daddylonglegs]

Temps torching to so the south..s.ee some of you guys are above 45F...

Sitting at 35F here with the glacier in place.. Melting has started...

Weekend looks wet and a mix of precip types here... start as snow/sleet/ice and then change over to rain and then back the other way? I don't know, but temps look iffy and precip amts total almost 1/2 inch on GFS.

Christmas looks very cold...says the GFS>

[cyclone77]

Yep up to 46 here. Could make a run at 50.

[daddylonglegs]

Awesome loop right now

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/wisc/

You can see the snow melt on the S fringes of the snow pack...