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December 2012 General Discussion


Guru Of Reason

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Flakes starting to fly here. Down to 28°.

Heard Valparaiso picked up an inch at least tonight.

Campus is east of downtown and we had more like a half inch. Plenty of grass showing and sidewalks only wet, although they're slippery now.

Maybe just north of downtown though? There's a several mile expanse of residential areas north of "center city".

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amazing that we're going to see this kind of WAA over the plains in mid-december but still won't manage to see any kind of decent baroclinic zone thanks to a northern stream dislodged way into Canada. It's hard to buy into the step down theory of storm tracks when storm after storm fails to tap into any real cold air.

post-163-0-90762500-1355237723_thumb.jpg

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12 years ago today.

Some snowfall totals from this storm: 13.6" at MKE, 9.5" at ORD, 8.3" at RFD, 13.5" at GSH, 12.0" at SBN, 14.0" at FNT, 6.1" at DTW, 15.1" at GRR, 14.5" at LAN, 13.7" at MKG. Blizzard Warnings were issued for Chicago and other places.

And then this one followed two days later. This storm dropped 12"+ amounts in MO, with a wide swath of 6"+ amounts elsewhere.

With the 9.5" I got with first storm and 6.0" with the second (both in Kankakee), it was pretty awesome. The rest of that month was cold/snowy history of course. Maybe my favorite winter month ever.

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A very nice storm indeed. I recall a Blizzard Warning for counties north of Detroit. There was a tight gradient across Metro Detroit. I remember receiving 10-12" just north of Detroit with whiteout conditions at times. There was some sleet mixed in at one point. The next storm dropped 4-6" here if I remember correctly.

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Today in Southeast Michigan Weather History...

On December 11, 2000, a powerful storm system moved east just south of Michigan, dumping heavy snow across all of the area, with some freezing rain and sleet near the Ohio border. Near blizzard conditions with up to 58 mph wind gusts were found across all of the area, with an outright blizzard in the Thumb. Many schools were closed for two to four days after the storm. Mail delivery the next day was spotty at best, and many businesses and government offices were closed. Specific snowfall amounts and impacts of the storm, by county... Bay: 8 to 10" in Bay City. Genesee: 12-14" fell, along with 4 foot drifts. Flint Bishop International Airport closed in the afternoon of the 11th, and ended up with 14", the third largest snowfall on record. Up to 200 cars were stranded on Interstate 75 just south of Flint during the storm. In Burton, the roof of a window manufacturing company collapsed. Huron: 16.2" in Port Hope. Lapeer: 12-16" near Lapeer (city), with 3 foot drifts. Interstate 69 was closed from Davison to Imlay City. Lenawee: 5.7" in Adrian with some freezing rain. Livingston: 10-15" with 3 to 5 foot drifts. Macomb: 12" across the county. Midland: 7 to 11" in Midland (city). Monroe: 8.5" just southeast of Milan; up to half an inch of freezing rain in Monroe with several trees downed due to ice and wind, and power outages. Oakland: 12" across the county. St Clair: 12.3" near Avoca; 14.7" in Ruby; 17.5" in Yale, 14" in Capac. In Port Huron, 12-20", closing the Blue Water Bridge to Canada. Saginaw: 11" in Frankenmuth with 3 foot drifts, roads drifted shut. MBS (Tri Cities) International Airport had many flights cancelled, and the airport was closed at 830 pm on the 11th. Sanilac: 13" in Brown City. Shiawassee: 15.5" in Morrice. Tuscola: 10-14" in Vassar. In Caro, 16.3" of snow fell with 4 foot drifts. An 18 car pile-up on the north side of town required snowmobiles to rescue stranded motorists. Washtenaw: 8-12" in Ann Arbor; closing Eastern Michigan University for only the second time ever. Wayne: 6-12" across the county; three-eighths inches of freezing rain in Rockwood; At Detroit Metropolitan Airport, 6.1" fell, with 197 departures and 165 arrivals were cancelled.

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Was 19 here last night. easily the coldest of the season with the help of some snowcover and partial clearing. I was in the interior a week or so ago and in remote area with clear skies, my truck said 12. Good and bad what being so close to the lake will do for temps.

Lake across the road is finally froze over. I'm tempted to go bust thru it with my yak, but would prolly be shot on site by the frothing at the mouth ice fisherman.

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Today in Southeast Michigan Weather History...

On December 11, 2000, a powerful storm system moved east just south of Michigan, dumping heavy snow across all of the area, with some freezing rain and sleet near the Ohio border. Near blizzard conditions with up to 58 mph wind gusts were found across all of the area, with an outright blizzard in the Thumb. Many schools were closed for two to four days after the storm. Mail delivery the next day was spotty at best, and many businesses and government offices were closed. Specific snowfall amounts and impacts of the storm, by county... Bay: 8 to 10" in Bay City. Genesee: 12-14" fell, along with 4 foot drifts. Flint Bishop International Airport closed in the afternoon of the 11th, and ended up with 14", the third largest snowfall on record. Up to 200 cars were stranded on Interstate 75 just south of Flint during the storm. In Burton, the roof of a window manufacturing company collapsed. Huron: 16.2" in Port Hope. Lapeer: 12-16" near Lapeer (city), with 3 foot drifts. Interstate 69 was closed from Davison to Imlay City. Lenawee: 5.7" in Adrian with some freezing rain. Livingston: 10-15" with 3 to 5 foot drifts. Macomb: 12" across the county. Midland: 7 to 11" in Midland (city). Monroe: 8.5" just southeast of Milan; up to half an inch of freezing rain in Monroe with several trees downed due to ice and wind, and power outages. Oakland: 12" across the county. St Clair: 12.3" near Avoca; 14.7" in Ruby; 17.5" in Yale, 14" in Capac. In Port Huron, 12-20", closing the Blue Water Bridge to Canada. Saginaw: 11" in Frankenmuth with 3 foot drifts, roads drifted shut. MBS (Tri Cities) International Airport had many flights cancelled, and the airport was closed at 830 pm on the 11th. Sanilac: 13" in Brown City. Shiawassee: 15.5" in Morrice. Tuscola: 10-14" in Vassar. In Caro, 16.3" of snow fell with 4 foot drifts. An 18 car pile-up on the north side of town required snowmobiles to rescue stranded motorists. Washtenaw: 8-12" in Ann Arbor; closing Eastern Michigan University for only the second time ever. Wayne: 6-12" across the county; three-eighths inches of freezing rain in Rockwood; At Detroit Metropolitan Airport, 6.1" fell, with 197 departures and 165 arrivals were cancelled.

I remember this storm. Vaguely though. I think this might of been the storm where a thick layer of ice was in the middle of the snow pack.

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ORD - number of days with low temp < 24F, through December 15 of each season (since 1959-60)

Top 4 seasons

(1) 1976-77: 32 days

(2) 1964-65: 23 days

(3) 1995-96: 23 days

(4) 1985-86: 21 days

Bottom 4 seasons

(1) 1998-99: 0 days

(2) 2012-13: 2 days

(3) 2001-02: 2 days

(4) 2011-12: 3 days

Average by period

UHI influence becoming greater over time? Or, just warmer winters overall in the past 10-15 years?

1960s: 13.7 days

1970s: 14.8 days

1980s: 13.9 days

1990s: 12.7 days

2000s - 2010s: 10.6 days

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ORD - number of days with low temp < 24F, through December 15 of each season (since 1959-60)

Top 4 seasons

(1) 1976-77: 32 days

(2) 1964-65: 23 days

(3) 1995-96: 23 days

(4) 1985-86: 21 days

Bottom 4 seasons

(1) 1998-99: 0 days

(2) 2012-13: 2 days

(3) 2001-02: 2 days

(4) 2011-12: 3 days

Average by period

UHI influence becoming greater over time? Or, just warmer winters overall in the past 10-15 years?

1960s: 13.7 days

1970s: 14.8 days

1980s: 13.9 days

1990s: 12.7 days

2000s - 2010s: 10.6 days

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Urban Heat Island always makes me cringe. Most major American cities were much more urban decades ago. The proper terminology should be Suburban Heat Island as dense urban cities shrink and suburban sprawl development takes hold far from the urban core. I wouldn't be surprised if some urban rust belt neighborhoods have cooled a bit with the decline of factories and numerous buildings being razed with weed lots as replacements.

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Winters are warmer no doubt about it, but dismissing UHI at ORD is kinda dumb. Alas, the 60's and 70's into the early 80's had some of coldest winters on record for Chicago (and the country) as well. There's certainly been a reversal since, overall.

I'd say it's some combination of both factors. I'm not sure how much more built up the area around ORD is now (wasn't it already pretty built up in the 80s and prior?) so my first thought would be to put more emphasis on warmer winters in general.

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Urban Heat Island always makes me cringe. Most major American cities were much more urban decades ago. The proper terminology should be Suburban Heat Island as dense urban cities shrink and suburban sprawl development takes hold far from the urban core. I wouldn't be surprised if some urban rust belt neighborhoods have cooled a bit with the decline of factories and numerous buildings being razed with weed lots as replacements.

True. In general, when I say "heat island", I mean the idea of human-impacted (urban and/or suburban) areas being warmer than rural areas. I agree with Hoosier that it's a combination of both. If you look at low temps each day across the state of IL during a 365-day period, you'll often find that the Chicago lakefront has the warmest low temp in the entire state. Many days, the lakefront will be 5-10 degrees warmer than ORD, and 10-15 degrees warmer than Rockford. That's the power of UHI.

Just to be clear, this wasn't meant to be an AGW conversation. The changes in early-winter low temps by decade at ORD is an interesting (and rather shocking) statistic, whatever the reason. I've lived in the Chicago suburbs for 30 years, and it makes Decembers feel warmer than they used to be...so it seemed relevant to post in the December general discussion thread. When we had the very cold years in the early 1980s, it was pretty much all farmland once you traveled west of IMBY (Carol Stream). Now, if you take a 15-mile drive west of here, the area is all built up continuously. These changes are significant over a short amount of "geologic" time (30 years).

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True. In general, when I say "heat island", I mean the idea of human-impacted (urban and/or suburban) areas being warmer than rural areas. I agree with Hoosier that it's a combination of both. If you look at low temps each day across the state of IL during a 365-day period, you'll often find that the Chicago lakefront has the warmest low temp in the entire state. Many days, the lakefront will be 5-10 degrees warmer than ORD, and 10-15 degrees warmer than Rockford. That's the power of UHI.

Just to be clear, this wasn't meant to be an AGW conversation. The changes in early-winter low temps by decade at ORD is an interesting (and rather shocking) statistic, whatever the reason. I've lived in the Chicago suburbs for 30 years, and it makes Decembers feel warmer than they used to be...so it seemed relevant to post in the December general discussion thread. When we had the very cold years in the early 1980s, it was pretty much all farmland once you traveled west of IMBY (Carol Stream). Now, if you take a 15-mile drive west of here, the area is all built up continuously. These changes are significant over a short amount of "geologic" time (30 years).

Don't forget the massive heat sink...it's getting warmer and it isn't UHI smoke and mirrors

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Today in Southeast Michigan Weather History...

On December 11, 2000, a powerful storm system moved east just south of Michigan, dumping heavy snow across all of the area, with some freezing rain and sleet near the Ohio border. Near blizzard conditions with up to 58 mph wind gusts were found across all of the area, with an outright blizzard in the Thumb. Many schools were closed for two to four days after the storm. Mail delivery the next day was spotty at best, and many businesses and government offices were closed. Specific snowfall amounts and impacts of the storm, by county... Bay: 8 to 10" in Bay City. Genesee: 12-14" fell, along with 4 foot drifts. Flint Bishop International Airport closed in the afternoon of the 11th, and ended up with 14", the third largest snowfall on record. Up to 200 cars were stranded on Interstate 75 just south of Flint during the storm. In Burton, the roof of a window manufacturing company collapsed. Huron: 16.2" in Port Hope. Lapeer: 12-16" near Lapeer (city), with 3 foot drifts. Interstate 69 was closed from Davison to Imlay City. Lenawee: 5.7" in Adrian with some freezing rain. Livingston: 10-15" with 3 to 5 foot drifts. Macomb: 12" across the county. Midland: 7 to 11" in Midland (city). Monroe: 8.5" just southeast of Milan; up to half an inch of freezing rain in Monroe with several trees downed due to ice and wind, and power outages. Oakland: 12" across the county. St Clair: 12.3" near Avoca; 14.7" in Ruby; 17.5" in Yale, 14" in Capac. In Port Huron, 12-20", closing the Blue Water Bridge to Canada. Saginaw: 11" in Frankenmuth with 3 foot drifts, roads drifted shut. MBS (Tri Cities) International Airport had many flights cancelled, and the airport was closed at 830 pm on the 11th. Sanilac: 13" in Brown City. Shiawassee: 15.5" in Morrice. Tuscola: 10-14" in Vassar. In Caro, 16.3" of snow fell with 4 foot drifts. An 18 car pile-up on the north side of town required snowmobiles to rescue stranded motorists. Washtenaw: 8-12" in Ann Arbor; closing Eastern Michigan University for only the second time ever. Wayne: 6-12" across the county; three-eighths inches of freezing rain in Rockwood; At Detroit Metropolitan Airport, 6.1" fell, with 197 departures and 165 arrivals were cancelled.

Best storm of my life, right there.

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