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December 2012 General Discussion


Guru Of Reason

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RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE

627 PM CST MON DEC 03 2012

..RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT MILWAUKEE WI

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE GENERAL

MITCHELL INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN MILWAUKEE WI TODAY...DECEMBER 3RD

2012. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 64 SET IN 1998.

That December sucked, but I think ;) I've seen it mentioned once or twice on the forum that January of 99 was pretty good.

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You want a funny thought? We may well end up with rain in my locale in early December than we had all of June. If nothing else gets your goat than that, I don't know what to say. We're now in our second wave of heavy downpours tonight, after receiving a heavy downpour Saturday as well. It basically rained one day in June. What is this weather coming to?

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Think we needed just a little more instability today to really get things going. Most of the towers that were going up got pushed over pretty quickly by the strong mid-level winds. Another 500-750j/kg of cape would have made this a pretty decent setup.

I thought it was pretty good CAPE by December standards...I'm not sure how much more could reasonably be expected at these latitudes. I think the main forcing being farther north didn't help as far as a more organized severe threat.

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DTX had this to say in their disco.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

907 PM EST MON DEC 3 2012

.UPDATE...

NEAR RECORD WARMTH CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO SE MICHIGAN TONIGHT

AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE THROUGH THE

REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPS REPORTED IN THE

MID 60S AS FAR NORTH AS BENTON HARBOR AT PRESS TIME WILL GIVE

LOCATIONS IN SE MICHIGAN A CHANCE TO BREAK RECORD HIGHS FOR

TUESDAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RECORD AT ALL 3 SITES IS 64

DEGREES SET IN 1941.

WITH SUCH WARM AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF A DECEMBER COLD FRONT, THERE

IS ALWAYS CONCERN FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, OR AT LEAST REASON TO

DIG DEEPER FOR A HANDLE ON EXPECTATIONS. AT THIS POINT, 700-500 MB

LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW HEALTHY CONVECTION

CAPABLE OF DIRECTING SOME HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR TO THE GROUND ALONG

AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, BUT MAINLY DURING A NARROW WINDOW OF

TIME RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WHEN COMBINED WITH THE KINEMATICS OF

THE FRONT ITSELF. A STRAY 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE

AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR DURING THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT THE

BAND OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS FGEN FORCING

STRENGTHENS POST FRONT SO THAT SHOWERS WILL LAST THROUGH TUESDAY

MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA.

THE FORECAST UPDATE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE TEMPERATURE TRENDS

WITH THE CATEGORICAL POP FORECAST ON TARGET.

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I thought it was pretty good CAPE by December standards...I'm not sure how much more could reasonably be expected at these latitudes. I think the main forcing being farther north didn't help as far as a more organized severe threat.

Yeah definitely not bad by Dec standards, but it was clear the updrafts were over-sheared relative to the intensity of the updrafts. Just goes to show why it's so hard to get severe this far north this time of year. Instability/lift and shear would have to mesh almost perfectly to get good severe coverage this far north at this time of the year.

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Looking over the 0z GEFS, cold dump into western/central Canada and then the Plains mid month, along with SE ridging really making for a Nina-like pattern. I'd imagine there may/will be some fluctuations in where the baroclinic zone sets up from system to system. But activity should be there...which is nice. If all goes as planned of course, but it seems the mets in the know on here like this scenario as well.

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What is it with DTW and these cheap high temps :lol:? Ive seen this before. The high for 12/3 of 63F is set at 11:59pm, and the high of 63F on 12/4 is set at 12:00am :lmao:

The worst of the torch is over, and DTW set no record highs or record high mins. Side note about high mins. There are two Dec days that are just mindblowing....Dec 3, 1982 (High 68F, low 57F) and Dec 8, 1966 (high 66F, low 57F). A low in the upper 50s in Dec is just CRAZY. And btw, 1966 was overall a great December for winterlovers.

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