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December 2012 General Discussion


Guru Of Reason

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2129

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0329 PM CST MON DEC 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN IA...NRN AND W-CNTRL IL...SRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 032129Z - 032300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR

ERN IA...NRN AND W-CNTRL IL...AND SRN WI THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS

MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...POSING AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING

WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY AT 21Z SHOWS A VORT LOBE PROGRESSING EWD

INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD

FRONT EXTENDED SWWD FROM NRN WI INTO CNTRL/ERN IA AND NRN MO. A WARM

FRONT WAS ALSO RETREATING NWD INTO CNTRL WI AND LOWER MI. DEWPOINTS

AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT RESIDE IN THE UPPER 50S...WHILE TEMPERATURES

HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70F. HOWEVER... STRONGER BOUNDARY

LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN INHIBITED BY PRE-FRONTAL

STRATOCUMULUS. GIVEN ONLY MODEST SURFACE HEATING AND

MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH RATHER WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...SBCAPE

VALUES ONLY RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG.

AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE AREA THIS

EVENING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP. A MESSY

CONVECTIVE MODE...CONSISTING MAINLY OF LINE SEGMENTS...MAY UNFOLD

DUE TO WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND MODEST 30-40 KT

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. IN ADDITION...STRONGER DCVA/LARGE-SCALE FORCING

FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE N OF THE AREA...WHICH COULD OTHERWISE

COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT FOR THE LOW CAPE/MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.

THEREFORE...EXPECT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO BE THE

PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A 40-50 KT S-SWLY

LLJ WILL AID IN EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES NEAR 200 M2 S-2. THUS...A BRIEF

TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..GARNER/MEAD.. 12/03/2012

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Today was about as pointless as a day of weather could get. Nothing but Fog and Drizzle all day! actually the Fog intensified as the day went on. Temps were steady at 45 most of the day but the temps has been rising since. Probably close to 60 by now. Mild air in early Dec = BARF

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You guys will probably laugh at this lol. The only reason this is mildly interesting is because it's dec, Shot this outside of town as the line of storms was taking shape. This conglomeration eventually went on to become tornado warned up by Polo. I followed it the northeast for a bit but the main storm pulled away pretty quickly. Should have left sooner. Darkness settled in pretty quickly as well.

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