Tidbits and teasers from the web

[FoothillsNC]

cheer up guys, even in the worst of patterns, things could change on a dime. I'm not saying it will, but it has happened in the past, and I guess it will again. Nothing on the horizon right now but gloom and doom if you like cold and precip. I think the pattern stays like it has been, a weak damming situation here and there for NC/VA, a good precip maker ahead of fronts (TN Valley) but remaining too dry in GA/NC/SC for a while more. This isn't quite the same as last Winter....YET. Back then, Greenland was cold, and so far , Greenland actually is slightly warm, same for waters and tendency for -NAO, unlike last year. But the Pacific and Gulf of Alaska looks terrible. Could be a wash in the end, with back and forth, and some big time volatility. I don't recall seeing so many conflicting signals as this, so we're kind of in unchartered waters. Remember last Winter there was that one system for Ky, WVA, Va and northern NC that brought a decent snow, yeah I know, no cold really. But with a tendency for Greenland blocking over the last 10 months or so, I think atleast we have a shot at one point, but no time soon. The good news is with so much PAC energy, all we need is one good 50/50 low and one good cold front to lay down, stall and then have Gulf development. There's no shortage of cold in Canada,and that's not going anywhere, so atleast cold is around up there. And for most of us, one good system will bring normal snow totals. I'm sure there will be some legitimate threats later on this Winter, more chances than last Winter. I jived a month ago that the some areas of the Southeast may have a Winter weather event before the next real rain....for NC,SC, most of GA or VA, that may indeed be the case. I hate droughts.

[NCSNOW]

If we don't get a reversal of this qpf blackhole that has developed on the east side of the apps by late Feb, It's gonna be nightmarish come next spring/summer. It's a hard enough battle fighting the summer heat we all have to deal with J/J/A when we start the summer off after a normal precip winter.

[BIG FROSTY]

JB--- last nights ECMWF ensembles turned much colder looking than the GFS ensembles and I suspect it is seeing the disturbance that has entered the force, as the SOI has crashed in the dailies.

[POWERSTROKE]

JB--- last nights ECMWF ensembles turned much colder looking than the GFS ensembles and I suspect it is seeing the disturbance that has entered the force, as the SOI has crashed in the dailies.

LOL!!! JB only one holding on to winter slim but still a chance. If he is right boy let the comments start

[tarheelwx]

I heard he was backing off a bit in his morning video. Can you confirm?

[BIG FROSTY]

I heard he was backing off a bit in his morning video. Can you confirm?

I didn't think he was, in the over all picture? He did say late next week was going to be warmer than he first thought, pattern is going in the direction he thought just taking a little longer than he thought from a couple weeks ago!!! But he's still bullish on a change before Christmas...

[tarheelwx]

Thanks for the clarification.

TW

[POWERSTROKE]

I didn't think he was, in the over all picture? He did say late next week was going to be warmer than he first thought, pattern is going in the direction he thought just taking a little longer than he thought from a couple weeks ago!!! But he's still bullish on a change before Christmas...

[POWERSTROKE]

Most have wrote winter off already. He still won't give in.

[WilkesboroDude]

Most have wrote winter off already. He still won't give in.

Sources?

[LithiaWx]

Most have wrote winter off already. He still won't give in.

I actually haven't seen but one or two posters write off winter and none are mets. Can you please link a few posts of people writing off this winter? Did you mean December instead of winter?

[Bevo]

I actually haven't seen but one or two posters write off winter and none are mets. Can you please link a few posts of people writing off this winter? Did you mean December instead of winter?

Yep - I've seen ZERO mets write off winter. Makes no sense to dive before mid January anyway.

December, however, is going the way of the DoDo I'm afraid. Maybe the last week will improve...

[Jon]

DT being DT:

0z MONDAY GFS... has the DEC 18 Low over the SE states... and has a LOT of cold air ..somehow over nc / va.. which allows the Model to drop SIGNIFICANT snow over VC and Northern NC.

IGNORE this solution... its Bull****.

[nchighcountrywx]

Starting to hear a more heightened focus now on late January into February from various subscription mets.

Moving the goal posts outward beyond the core of our winter.

[POWERSTROKE]

Starting to hear a more heightened focus now on late January into February from various subscription mets.

Moving the goal posts outward beyond the core of our winter.

yes but some still like what the pattern is doing after the 20th, just like they've been saying for a while. Even some on here have been saying same thing.

[burgertime]

Starting to hear a more heightened focus now on late January into February from various subscription mets.

Moving the goal posts outward beyond the core of our winter.

Maybe that's what we want since the weather seems to want to do the total opposite of what forecasters have said.

[franklin NCwx]

Starting to hear a more heightened focus now on late January into February from various subscription mets.

Moving the goal posts outward beyond the core of our winter.

Who is doing that? I signed up for a 7 day free trial of weatherbell yesterday and JB's forecast has been the 15th of Dec onward.

Late January February is the core of our winter!

I am actually encouraged by the ensemble runs the last few days. Not sure why everyone is in such a panic mode on Dec 10th.

[Bevo]

Starting to hear a more heightened focus now on late January into February from various subscription mets.

Moving the goal posts outward beyond the core of our winter.

Met. winter means little to me personally. Many (most in my region) would consider late Jan through February the core of winter. I remember very few times in which met. winter corresponded with actual winter weather (at least here anyway).

[nchighcountrywx]

Best core of winter in my opinion depends on where you are in the state.

In the mountains, early December through Mid February is best while the sun angle is at is lowest and snow sticks around better.

Down in the Charlotte area, far different. Late December through end of January is best there. By Mid February the Bradford pears and early budding trees are popping out in full bloom and what snow falls tends not to stick around except immediately after the snow fall.

Generally speaking, the first 3 weeks of January are core for about everyone.

Personally, I prefer the snow to stick around a while and not be subject to a rapid melt with dramatically warmer temperatures immediately thereafter.

The big one off event was the early 1960s snows in late February into late March in Western NC where it snowed every Wednesday for a month.

[Bevo]

Best core of winter in my opinion depends on where you are in the state.

In the mountains, early December through Mid February is best while the sun angle is at is lowest and snow sticks around better.

Down in the Charlotte area, far different. Late December through end of January is best there. By Mid February the Bradford pears and early budding trees are popping out in full bloom and what snow falls tends not to stick around except immediately after the snow fall.

Generally speaking, the first 3 weeks of January are core for about everyone.

Personally, I prefer the snow to stick around a while and not be subject to a rapid melt with dramatically warmer temperatures immediately thereafter.

The big one off event was the early 1960s snows in late February into late March in Western NC where it snowed every Wednesday for a month.

I've lived south of Charlotte (between Greenville/Spartanburg SC) my whole life - mid January through February is what we predominately consider actual "winter" (as in "hey, it feels like winter out here"). Typically, no pears bloom until March (last year doesn't count). The best snows we've had in recent memory have fallen in mid January and early March.

[LithiaWx]

I've lived south of Charlotte (between Greenville/Spartanburg SC) my whole life - mid January through February is what we predominately consider actual "winter" (as in "hey, it feels like winter out here"). Typically, no pears bloom until March (last year doesn't count). The best snows we've had in recent memory have fallen in mid January and early March.

Mid jan to early feb is the core of winter in atlanta from my experience.

[nchighcountrywx]

I've lived south of Charlotte (between Greenville/Spartanburg SC) my whole life - mid January through February is what we predominately consider actual "winter" (as in "hey, it feels like winter out here"). Typically, no pears bloom until March (last year doesn't count). The best snows we've had in recent memory have fallen in mid January and early March.

I work down in Charlotte since 2005 and every year Bradford Pears have bloomed by around the 21st of February.

[Bevo]

Mid jan to early feb is the core of winter in atlanta from my experience.

That's pretty close to what I've experienced. As I said earlier, just referencing recent history as an example - mid January has been the most active winter weather period - followed by early March (for me).

[Bevo]

I work down in Charlotte since 2005 and every year Bradford Pears have bloomed by around the 21st of February.

I'm just telling you what my experience has been for 37 years - that's all. And I am speaking specifically of my area (call it micro-climate or whatever).

[franklin NCwx]

Best core of winter in my opinion depends on where you are in the state.

In the mountains, early December through Mid February is best while the sun angle is at is lowest and snow sticks around better.

Down in the Charlotte area, far different. Late December through end of January is best there. By Mid February the Bradford pears and early budding trees are popping out in full bloom and what snow falls tends not to stick around except immediately after the snow fall.

Generally speaking, the first 3 weeks of January are core for about everyone.

Personally, I prefer the snow to stick around a while and not be subject to a rapid melt with dramatically warmer temperatures immediately thereafter.

The big one off event was the early 1960s snows in late February into late March in Western NC where it snowed every Wednesday for a month.

In the mountains it does not snow very much in early December, if at all. We get more snow in March than we do in December. Yes the sun angle is lower and it might stay around longer depending on temps.

[franklin NCwx]

That's pretty close to what I've experienced. As I said earlier, just referencing recent history as an example - mid January has been the most active winter weather period - followed by early March (for me).

It's the same here in the mountains. Even when I was living in Highlands NC at over 4000ft.

[WilkesboroDude]

Early December never really performs here in the foothills...its considered a miracle if we get snow for Christmas.

March does beat December here sometimes...and in recent years...March has delivered.

[Bevo]

Early December never really performs here in the foothills...its considered a miracle if we get snow for Christmas.

March does beat December here sometimes...and in recent years...March has delivered.

I know met. winter starts December 1st. However, my point has always been that regarding actual winter weather (temps, precip, etc), mid January through the first part of March have delivered more in recent years. For as long as I can remember, the coldest stretch of winter has been January-early March. This is why it was extremely hard for me to believe December averaged colder than February in my region (I'm still not completely sold, but it's hard to argue with the numbers).

So, packbacker - I would not even consider the cliff until mid January at the earliest . You may resume recruiting at that point if the Pacific/Blocking war is still being fought.

[nchighcountrywx]

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/Review_Feb-Mar_1960.pdf

1960 blizzard set standard for snow in N.C. mountains

By Monte Mitchell, JOURNAL REPORTER

Eddie Norris remembers snowdrifts that threatened to swallow houses. He remembers airdrops of food to people in remote places. He says he has never again seen such a snow as the great blizzard of 1960.

It was actually a series of five major snowstorms that began 50 years ago. Scientists say that the 1960 blizzard is still the snowiest period on record for the Southern Appalachians.

Snow fell on average about every other day from Feb. 13 to March 26.

"It snowed so heavy, the temperatures stayed down, and it didn't have a chance to melt," Norris said.

High winds blew the snow into tall drifts. A crew might plow a road one afternoon, and overnight winds would blow the drifts so it looked as if crews had never touched the road.

Bulldozers, graders and snow blowers arrived in Wilkes County from the coast, and Norris was part of a N.C. Department of Transportation crew that helped guide the equipment up the mountain. Gov. Luther Hodges sent in the National Guard. Helicopters dropped supplies to people trapped in rural cabins. One story had it that an airdrop of hay landed on a farmer's cow and killed it.

Baker Perry, now an assistant professor at Appalachian State University in Boone, was captivated by those stories that he heard from his grandfather and others.

One of Perry's special areas of study is snowfall patterns and processes in the Southern Appalachians. He is an expert on the 1960 snowstorms.

Perry said that the 1960 storms produced 83 inches of snow in 43 days in Boone. That's nearly 7 feet of snow.

The kind of blizzard that hit in 1960 hasn't happened again in the past 50 years.

"It certainly takes a highly unusual set of circumstances to come together to produce an extended period of cold and storminess in just the right place," Perry said.

[FoothillsNC]

http://www.erh.noaa....eb-Mar_1960.pdf

1960 blizzard set standard for snow in N.C. mountains

By Monte Mitchell, JOURNAL REPORTER

Eddie Norris remembers snowdrifts that threatened to swallow houses. He remembers airdrops of food to people in remote places. He says he has never again seen such a snow as the great blizzard of 1960.

It was actually a series of five major snowstorms that began 50 years ago. Scientists say that the 1960 blizzard is still the snowiest period on record for the Southern Appalachians.

Snow fell on average about every other day from Feb. 13 to March 26.

"It snowed so heavy, the temperatures stayed down, and it didn't have a chance to melt," Norris said.

High winds blew the snow into tall drifts. A crew might plow a road one afternoon, and overnight winds would blow the drifts so it looked as if crews had never touched the road.

Bulldozers, graders and snow blowers arrived in Wilkes County from the coast, and Norris was part of a N.C. Department of Transportation crew that helped guide the equipment up the mountain. Gov. Luther Hodges sent in the National Guard. Helicopters dropped supplies to people trapped in rural cabins. One story had it that an airdrop of hay landed on a farmer's cow and killed it.

Baker Perry, now an assistant professor at Appalachian State University in Boone, was captivated by those stories that he heard from his grandfather and others.

One of Perry's special areas of study is snowfall patterns and processes in the Southern Appalachians. He is an expert on the 1960 snowstorms.

Perry said that the 1960 storms produced 83 inches of snow in 43 days in Boone. That's nearly 7 feet of snow.

The kind of blizzard that hit in 1960 hasn't happened again in the past 50 years.

"It certainly takes a highly unusual set of circumstances to come together to produce an extended period of cold and storminess in just the right place," Perry said.

Yes, 104" of snow fell in Boone that Winter, with the most snow on the ground at 44" at any one time. Which still stands the record today. But the 1987 pattern and 1996 pattern came very close to it. For many in eastern TN, extreme northern GA and extreme upper SC and western third of NC to southwest VA, that 4 week period is the mother of Winter patterns. Even here just in the western piedmont/eastern foothills we had 6 major winter weather events in that 4 weeks, each of which would have been classified Major Winter Storm....with a total of around 30" of snow and sleet in Shelby. Although the 1969 individual storm topped any here, that 1960 period is the only one on record that was continous..producing Winter storm after Winter storm.

The pattern came out of nowhere in a neutral ENSO after a balmy Dec and Jan.

near Boone:

March 11, 1960 Shelby NC Newspaper: