POWERSTROKE Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 Well...he was recently brought up in another region. Just thought I would share that mods beliefs/statistical fact for lurkers here in the South-East who do not post. Use caution. For someone that posts more than anybody does on here why don't you donate some money. I see you not a donator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Ok, let me give it a shot...at least my perspective on it. I think you can enjoy reading someone's comments/forecast/thoughts without supporting every comment/forecast/thought they ever have. Maybe he's wrong 90% of the time. Maybe he's right 90% of the time. I have no idea because I don't care enough to have verify it. He is entertaining, right or wrong. I don't need a voting majority of people to help me decide whether to listen to someone or not. I can make up my own mind about whether or not I put any faith in his forecast. Personally, I like to come on this board every day and see if, even if the models show warmth, anyone still can see anything to give hope for cold. I like it when I see that because it's fun to read, and because you really just never, never know about the weather. But even though it may be fun to read, I can still use my judgment as to whether or not I think that perspective is likely to verify. JB is always going to point out how it can get cold. I like that. It's entertaining. But I don't always agree with it. What I can't understand is why on earth it bothers so many people. Every time someone mentions him, here come three more people bashing him. If you want my opinion, the people that go out of their way to condemn him or others for reading him have just as much if not more of a problem than those who follow what he says as gospel. This is a weather board. He's going to be discussed. That it is such a problem for people is comical. Instead of feeling the need to gripe about it and take votes and polls on it, they should just kindly move along and do something else that they feel is more worth their time. Make sense? It makes sense to me. He whips up weenies into a tizzie about things making the board a minefield of garbage posts about phantom cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 It makes sense to me. He whips up weenies into a tizzie about things making the board a minefield of garbage posts about phantom cold and snow. I haven't seen JB posts derail the December Discussion thread, the New Members Map thread, or the Banter thread, for at least a few pages. But the minefield metaphore sounded good, though. You might be talking about other forums though. I haven't looked enough to catalog them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 It makes sense to me. He whips up weenies into a tizzie about things making the board a minefield of garbage posts about phantom cold and snow. I don't see how he gets them excited. I for one don't get excited bout what he says. I post what he says because some have asked. Who cares if he is right or wrong? He is not bothering anybody by telling whatever he tells. He was as wrong as MOST last year. I agree with COLD RAIN if nobody likes him then leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I don't see how he gets them excited. I for one don't get excited bout what he says. I post what he says because some have asked. Who cares if he is right or wrong? He is not bothering anybody by telling whatever he tells. He was as wrong as MOST last year. I agree with COLD RAIN if nobody likes him then leave it at that. Yeah, there's way to big a deal made over him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 JB said this evening, don't let the warm fool you winter is coming!!! Most of the cold will be in the mid and northern section, not SE according to the map he showed. But SE was not warm either maybe (norm) then it relaxes and reloads... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I don't see how he gets them excited. I for one don't get excited bout what he says. I post what he says because some have asked. Who cares if he is right or wrong? He is not bothering anybody by telling whatever he tells. He was as wrong as MOST last year. I agree with COLD RAIN if nobody likes him then leave it at that. I appreciate you guys relaying his opinions. Ive been listening, reading e.tc. JB since the early 90's on wsjs. I don't subscribe to him ( spend my pennies on Robert), but he is passionate about what he does. There are some who disapprove of him for various reasons such as politics(GW,e.t.c) or always overhyping events. Whatever the reason may be this is the perfect thread for throwing stuff out there for others to hear about or follow up on. So by all means keep firing away and it's just one of countless opinions that get plastered on this website daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 People must be obsessed with hating this guy. I don't get it. If you hate him there's no reason to come on here and remind everyone, just don't read his stuff. You don't have to worship the man, but there is nothing wrong with seeing what he has to say and reading what he's thinking. He does have some decent thoughts and models are just that, guidance. I think he brings up a lot of players on the field that a lot of mets leave out, whether that's teleconnection stuff, atmospheric, or models that I've never heard of before, I learn from him quite a deal so I appreciate it. It's up to the meteorologist to be "right" or "wrong" at the end of the day. NO met has a 100% accurate record, no met...If he's wrong, he admits it. I thought he was excellent with Sandy, the track he put out days in advance was dead on when the NHC track was way off...Bottom line is I appreciate his thoughts on the winter, he's seen a ton of them and has more meteorological experience than a lot of mets on this board, I think that goes without saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 People must be obsessed with hating this guy. I don't get it. If you hate him there's no reason to come on here and remind everyone, just don't read his stuff. You don't have to worship the man, but there is nothing wrong with seeing what he has to say and reading what he's thinking. He does have some decent thoughts and models are just that, guidance. I think he brings up a lot of players on the field that a lot of mets leave out, whether that's teleconnection stuff, atmospheric, or models that I've never heard of before, I learn from him quite a deal so I appreciate it. It's up to the meteorologist to be "right" or "wrong" at the end of the day. NO met has a 100% accurate record, no met...If he's wrong, he admits it. I thought he was excellent with Sandy, the track he put out days in advance was dead on when the NHC track was way off...Bottom line is I appreciate his thoughts on the winter, he's seen a ton of them and has more meteorological experience than a lot of mets on this board, I think that goes without saying. Excellent post Jon, spot on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Ok, let me give it a shot...at least my perspective on it. I think you can enjoy reading someone's comments/forecast/thoughts without supporting every comment/forecast/thought they ever have. Maybe he's wrong 90% of the time. Maybe he's right 90% of the time. I have no idea because I don't care enough to have verify it. He is entertaining, right or wrong. I don't need a voting majority of people to help me decide whether to listen to someone or not. I can make up my own mind about whether or not I put any faith in his forecast. Personally, I like to come on this board every day and see if, even if the models show warmth, anyone still can see anything to give hope for cold. I like it when I see that because it's fun to read, and because you really just never, never know about the weather. But even though it may be fun to read, I can still use my judgment as to whether or not I think that perspective is likely to verify. JB is always going to point out how it can get cold. I like that. It's entertaining. But I don't always agree with it. What I can't understand is why on earth it bothers so many people. Every time someone mentions him, here come three more people bashing him. If you want my opinion, the people that go out of their way to condemn him or others for reading him have just as much if not more of a problem than those who follow what he says as gospel. This is a weather board. He's going to be discussed. That it is such a problem for people is comical. Instead of feeling the need to gripe about it and take votes and polls on it, they should just kindly move along and do something else that they feel is more worth their time. Make sense? Great post!!! Joe Bastardi Watching Euro come in now as the attack of winter starts down the plains this weekend. It wont be warm in Kansas anymore TOTO Things are changing!!! No Kansas is not in the SE, This is just to show the pattern is changing though! May take while longer for the SE to get in on the cold but I believe we will later this month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 People must be obsessed with hating this guy. I don't get it. If you hate him there's no reason to come on here and remind everyone, just don't read his stuff. You don't have to worship the man, but there is nothing wrong with seeing what he has to say and reading what he's thinking. He does have some decent thoughts and models are just that, guidance. I think he brings up a lot of players on the field that a lot of mets leave out, whether that's teleconnection stuff, atmospheric, or models that I've never heard of before, I learn from him quite a deal so I appreciate it. It's up to the meteorologist to be "right" or "wrong" at the end of the day. NO met has a 100% accurate record, no met...If he's wrong, he admits it. I thought he was excellent with Sandy, the track he put out days in advance was dead on when the NHC track was way off...Bottom line is I appreciate his thoughts on the winter, he's seen a ton of them and has more meteorological experience than a lot of mets on this board, I think that goes without saying. Very well stated. Personally I'll listen to what he has to say, but if he falls flat on his predictions, I shrug it off and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 People must be obsessed with hating this guy. I don't get it. If you hate him there's no reason to come on here and remind everyone, just don't read his stuff. You don't have to worship the man, but there is nothing wrong with seeing what he has to say and reading what he's thinking. He does have some decent thoughts and models are just that, guidance. I think he brings up a lot of players on the field that a lot of mets leave out, whether that's teleconnection stuff, atmospheric, or models that I've never heard of before, I learn from him quite a deal so I appreciate it. It's up to the meteorologist to be "right" or "wrong" at the end of the day. NO met has a 100% accurate record, no met...If he's wrong, he admits it. I thought he was excellent with Sandy, the track he put out days in advance was dead on when the NHC track was way off...Bottom line is I appreciate his thoughts on the winter, he's seen a ton of them and has more meteorological experience than a lot of mets on this board, I think that goes without saying. My opinion that he sucks is just as valid as the cheerleaders opinions are. The Sandy statement was debunked in this thread as well. The NHC nailed it period. There is no reason this thread should be one sided. Why can't the JB supporters ignore the posts that aren't supportive of him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Great post!!! Joe Bastardi Watching Euro come in now as the attack of winter starts down the plains this weekend. It wont be warm in Kansas anymore TOTO Things are changing!!! No Kansas is not in the SE, This is just to show the pattern is changing though! May take while longer for the SE to get in on the cold but I believe we will later this month... Thanks for keeping those of us who want to know JB's thought on the weather informed. I did't realise this was a bash JB site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Okay...it's time to stop w/ the personal attacks. If there is a statistical fact or something related to JB, I will post it. Please do not throw words in my mouth saying I hate JB. I enjoy his long term forecasts. Here is hope that he is right w/ things getting better in late December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 My opinion that he sucks is just as valid as the cheerleaders opinions are. The Sandy statement was debunked in this thread as well. The NHC nailed it period. There is no reason this thread should be one sided. Why can't the JB supporters ignore the posts that aren't supportive of him? You're right. There's no reason opinions of JB or anyone else should be one-sided. That's a great point. I think the distinction is that if anyone disagrees with his opinion, it seems like it's more reasonable and the more mature approach to articulate the disagreement and the reason for it. But what usually happens, logical and productive conversation is usually substituted for, "that guy's a clown." or "why does anyone listen to that idiot?" or something along those lines. There's no good reason to say stuff like that all the time. I'm not saying you do, but I am saying that it happens more frequently than does good, scientific debate. And for the record, you've done an excellent job making your opinion clear. It's not necessary to drive it home again every time there is a JB discussion. But it's your right, so if you want to, have at it. You're certainly not alone in how you feel. My opinion on JB, which I've also made clear, is that we all know what he does and why. I think he's entertaining and sometimes he's right and sometimes he's not. And since this is a weather board, what he has to say (as well as discussions about that), is(/are) more relevant IMO than statements calling him a clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 My opinion that he sucks is just as valid as the cheerleaders opinions are. The Sandy statement was debunked in this thread as well. The NHC nailed it period. There is no reason this thread should be one sided. Why can't the JB supporters ignore the posts that aren't supportive of him? Debunked? Oh really? Not until the 25th did NHC have Sandy going inland toward NJ...JB had the bottom map posted by the 21st. Yeah, NHC nailed it...eventually, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Debunked? Oh really? Not until the 25th did NHC have Sandy going inland toward NJ...JB had the bottom map posted by the 21st. Yeah, NHC nailed it...eventually, eh? I think JB did a good job with Sandy. I've never said that he didn't nail it. What I have some issue with is "The NHC blew the Sandy forecast". Its not true in any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Debunked? Oh really? Not until the 25th did NHC have Sandy going inland toward NJ...JB had the bottom map posted by the 21st. Yeah, NHC nailed it...eventually, eh? JB never had a track with the left hook, he had it moving straight north and from the Bahamas, the NHC was much closer with the actual track. JB didn't "nail" it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 JB never had a track with the left hook, he had it moving straight north and from the Bahamas, the NHC was much closer with the actual track. JB didn't "nail" it Everything you just typed out is false. Post some pics so I know where you're getting this. I have weatherbell, so I can just pull up the data and old videos. First, he had a the storm hooking left inland on Sunday, the 18th of October. This was only available to his clients, but he released the track in a video on the 22nd of October with the landfall for Northern NJ. So unless you're seeing a very old track map before then, he nailed it when others still had it OTS and he was talking about the hook it was going to do because of the block for several days before that, just never showed us his "track" on video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Everything you just typed out is false. Post some pics so I know where you're getting this. I have weatherbell, so I can just pull up the data and old videos. First, he had a the storm hooking left inland on Sunday, the 18th of October. This was only available to his clients, but he released the track in a video on the 22nd of October with the landfall for Northern NJ. So unless you're seeing a very old track map before then, he nailed it when others still had it OTS and he was talking about the hook it was going to do because of the block for several days before that, just never showed us his "track" on video. I'm on my phone, so I can't link...please see Ellinwood's reference in the OT thread discussing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 You know, from an average layman's perspective, I'd say most forecasters (especially long range forecasters) are viewed as mediocre and inaccurate at best. JB I would think fits right in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 I'm on my phone, so I can't link...please see Ellinwood's reference in the OT thread discussing this I just read all the posts in the bastardi thread. He is recalling from memory and doesn't have the images. Yet, he does agree once bastardi had the curve he was right. He's talking about the NHC nailing the super early track of the storm through the Bahamas, I haven't seen a map like that from JB so unless he or you posts that, there's nothing there. Also so wha about nailing a ots track early in a storms life? That's not important, what's important is the landfall track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Every aspect of a track is important. I don't really care one way or another on what he says.IMO he's no better than a reality show. While it's based on some facts, ratings are most important and that's the bottom line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 5, 2012 Author Share Posted December 5, 2012 that's why we all have opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Every aspect of a track is important. I don't really care one way or another on what he says.IMO he's no better than a reality show. While it's based on some facts, ratings are most important and that's the bottom line. Little turns in a track OTS is not important, even the NWS gets those wrong due to wobble and the NWS also adjust the track what, every 6 hours? We knew when it was a TS that it would go over Bahamas and OTS, so why would the fish care if it's off 100-200 miles? I just don't understand that. Whether or not it would curve and impact the US, that was important, and he nailed it. Whether he does things for hype or ratings has nothing to do with him accurately forecasting Sandy or anything else. Agree to disagree I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 JB never had a track with the left hook, he had it moving straight north and from the Bahamas, the NHC was much closer with the actual track. JB didn't "nail" it This brings up a PERFECT example of JB completely disregarding the GFS model...because it created less hype early on. While the GFS did eventually cave into the EURO fairly quickly, the NHC had the common sense to compromise both short/med. term...while still having the long term track very good. JB is very risky...the NHC knew better after that mess they had with the EURO completely failing with Debby in the Gulf of Mexico. To sum all of the above up, just use caution with JB. Like w/ Levi in the other thread, he is very interesting to listen to and presents a good presentation whether right or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 This brings up a PERFECT example of JB completely disregarding the GFS model...because it created less hype early on. While the GFS did eventually cave into the EURO fairly quickly, the NHC had the common sense to compromise both short/med. term...while still having the long term track very good. JB is very risky...the NHC knew better after that mess they had with the EURO completely failing with Debby in the Gulf of Mexico. To sum all of the above up, just use caution with JB. Like w/ Levi in the other thread, he is very interesting to listen to and presents a good presentation whether right or wrong. Wouldn't you say the NHC is "allowed" to do this because they update their track very frequently compared to independent mets who try to release a new track every few days, or daily? It would make sense to "blend" the model solutions and release only a short term track. The NHC can be dead on because with every model run, they adjust their track a hair every few hours. If they put out an extended landfall track (a week+) without the cone of uncertainty, where do you think it would have wound up had they done it when JB did? Bermuda or NJ? Comparing the NHC to JB is like apples to oranges...a team versus one guy...short range forecasting team vs one long range forecast...don't get it, don't understand it, but I digress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 Wouldn't you say the NHC is "allowed" to do this because they update their track very frequently compared to independent mets who try to release a new track every few days, or daily? It would make sense to "blend" the model solutions and release only a short term track. The NHC can be dead on because with every model run, they adjust their track a hair every few hours. If they put out an extended landfall track (a week+) without the cone of uncertainty, where do you think it would have wound up had they done it when JB did? Bermuda or NJ? Comparing the NHC to JB is like apples to oranges...a team versus one guy...short range forecasting team vs one long range forecast...don't get it, don't understand it, but I digress. Nobody in the right mind should be making a landfall prediction a week out without the cone of uncertainty. I am pretty sure independent mets take in consideration of what the NHC has to say too. I would hope so, even in the case of JB. There is plenty of room for the NHC to really screw up...aka the above mentioned Debby. We did not see the cone undergo dramatic shifts with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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