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POWERSTROKE

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Has joe bastardi ever called for a normal or above normal temp winter?

Excellent Q. The answer is a definite "yes". However, please don't ask me try to remember the last winter for which he did that. My longterm memory isn't the greatest.

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Excellent Q. The answer is a definite "yes". However, please don't ask me try to remember the last winter for which he did that. My longterm memory isn't the greatest.

Lets look at winter forecast from others. Many are saying winter looks good for us however the same ones want to bash jb even though he is in line with all of the others. Look what Robert posted last night. Cold coming when? Same time as jb has said

Didnt see any disagree with him? Too funny. Sit back and lets hope all are right.

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I have seen JB be right...and I enjoy his long term analysis. I can speak for myself when I say I really only bash him for individual storm hyping for increased ratings. I think the latter is what annoys people rather than his overall long term synopsis.

It's good to see Robert/JB on common ground for a pattern change. We got hope, unlike last winter.

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JB's ok with me. He seems to hype things up and he was wrong all of last year as was mentioned but so was everybody else (other than a few and don sutherland). Overall I think he's been right just as much as wrong in my recollection. I actually enjoy the hype; I'm a weenie and I like to get excited about snow. :weenie:

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Lets look at winter forecast from others. Many are saying winter looks good for us however the same ones want to bash jb even though he is in line with all of the others. Look what Robert posted last night. Cold coming when? Same time as jb has said

Didnt see any disagree with him? Too funny. Sit back and lets hope all are right.

In all honesty, I think he used to be biased cold for the NE US...say back in the early to mid 2000's. I think that that is why he is bashed so often and it was probably warranted then. However, to be fair, he has since had a mix of cold and warm E US forecasts and I've noted that he has become more objective in my mind. So, now when he says cold for the SE US, my eyes and ears perk up and I truly get excited. Back in the fall of 2010, he said that the winter of 2012-3 would be cold and he has since maintained that forecast:

http://www.accuweath...s-could-m/36990

I haven't been able to locate the 2011-2 JB forecast, but I'm fairly confident it wasn't cold for the SE. It might have been close to normal. Regardless, whatever the exact fcast, he was too cold since it was so warm. So, he, like many, pretty much busted too cold. I do know that in late Dec., he said Jan. 2012 wouldn't be cold. That apparently was a change from earlier thinking.

Here is the 2010-11 map..this is definitely not cold and actually is warm for much of the E US; he actually turned out to be too WARM in the SE and overall did bust with his forecast:

http://www.stormtrac...10-2011-Outlook

Here is 2009-10, which he correctly had as cold and snowy. He did very well that winter...an A:

http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=2302

Here is 2008-9, which he had on the colder side for the E US and the coldest in several winters with bookends of cold surrounding a good Jan. thaw (I don't have the maps..so I don't have anything that says how cold..he definitely wasn't calling for a wall to wall brutally cold winter). He turned out to be spot on for the NE/Midwest, overall, where they did have their coldest winter overall since 2003-4 even though it was pretty much near normal overall. The SE US was a bit warmer than normal..he may have been a little too cold there, but I can't say for sure. Overall, I have to give him high marks for 2008-9. Read about that forecast here:

http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=1220

Here are my grades for JB for the last four winters:

2011-2: D; I'm almost sure it wasn't a cold fcast for SE US

2010-1: F; warm fcast for E US

2009-10: A; cold fcast for SE US

2008-9: B

Overall avg. last four winters: C. Not good but not terrible.

Like him or not, JB definitely has a rather unique approach to seasonal forecasting regarding teleconnections/analogs. Also, he definitely has the balls to swing for the fences and there never is a dull moment with him.

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In all honesty, I think he used to be biased cold for the NE US...say back in the early to mid 2000's. I think that that is why he is bashed so often and it was probably warranted then. However, to be fair, he has since had a mix of cold and warm E US forecasts and I've noted that he has become more objective in my mind. So, now when he says cold for the SE US, my eyes and ears perk up and I truly get excited. Back in the fall of 2010, he said that the winter of 2012-3 would be cold and he has since maintained that forecast:

http://www.accuweath...s-could-m/36990

I haven't been able to locate the 2011-2 JB forecast, but I'm fairly confident it wasn't cold for the SE. It might have been close to normal. Regardless, whatever the exact fcast, he was too cold since it was so warm. So, he like many, pretty much busted too cold. I do know that in late Dec., he said Jan. 2012 wouldn't be cold. That apparently was a change from earlier thinking.

Here is the 2010-11 map..this is definitely not cold and actually is warm for much of the E US; he actually turned out to be too WARM in the SE and overall did bust with his forecast:

http://www.stormtrac...10-2011-Outlook

Here is 2009-10, which he correctly had as cold and snowy. He did very well that winter...an A:

http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=2302

Here is 2008-9, which he had on the colder side for the E US and the coldest in several winters with bookends of cold surrounding a good Jan. thaw (I don't have the maps..so I don't have anything that says how cold..he definitely wasn't calling for a wall to wall brutally cold winter). He turned out ot be spot on for the NE/Midwest, overall, where they did have their coldest winter overall since 2003-4 even though it was pretty much near normal overall. The SE US was a bit warmer than normal..he may have been a little too cold there, but I can't say for sure. Overal, i have to give him high marks for 2008-9. Read about that forecast here:

http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=1220

Here are my grades for JB for the last four winters:

2011-2: D; I'm almost sure it wasn't a cold fcast for SE US

2010-1: F; warm fcast for E US

2009-10: A; cold fcast for SE US

2008-9: B

Overall avg. last four winters: C. Not good but not terrible.

Like him or not, JB definitely has a rather unique approach to seasonal forecasting regarding teleconnections/analogs. Also, he definitely has the balls to swing for the fences and there never is a dull moment with him.

I have had some good things to say about JB in the past. How many times should one get burned before you give up on the guy? Where he loses me is when he hypes up nearly every strong storm as the next superstorm and he has a clear bias for track and cold to the northeast. I used to take him at his word and pass it along to my friends and family. It eventually became the boy who cried wolf when the big one never hit.

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I have had some good things to say about JB in the past. How many times should one get burned before you give up on the guy? Where he loses me is when he hypes up nearly every strong storm as the next superstorm and he has a clear bias for track and cold to the northeast. I used to take him at his word and pass it along to my friends and family. It eventually became the boy who cried wolf when the big one never hit.

He sure did a great job on Hurricane,superstorm blizzard call it what you will,sandy.Even though NHC blowed it.I just don't get it .They name a tropical storm that will never touch anyone so they can say there were X amount of storms but a storm with the magnatude of sandy and they just call it a superstorm.

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He sure did a great job on Hurricane,superstorm blizzard call it what you will,sandy.Even though NHC blowed it.I just don't get it .They name a tropical storm that will never touch anyone so they can say there were X amount of storms but a storm with the magnatude of sandy and they just call it a superstorm.

The NHC blew the Sandy call? You seem to be living in an alternate reality foothills. The NHC had the track for Sandy pounding the Northeast for days. Lastly are you upset that the NHC didn't designate Sandy as Superstorm Sandy? They don't do that... the biggest complaint I have for the NHC regarding Sandy is they still had her classified as a Hurricane when she hit when it was obvious it was a Noreaster at that point and completely extra tropical.

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The NHC blew the Sandy call? You seem to be living in an alternate reality foothills. The NHC had the track for Sandy pounding the Northeast for days. Lastly are you upset that the NHC didn't designate Sandy as Superstorm Sandy? They don't do that... the biggest complaint I have for the NHC regarding Sandy is they still had her classified as a Hurricane when she hit when it was obvious it was a Noreaster at that point and completely extra tropical.

Sorry pal you wrong this time. Nhc said many times on tv they were not sure and changed track several times even three days out

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In all honesty, I think he used to be biased cold for the NE US...say back in the early to mid 2000's. I think that that is why he is bashed so often and it was probably warranted then. However, to be fair, he has since had a mix of cold and warm E US forecasts and I've noted that he has become more objective in my mind. So, now when he says cold for the SE US, my eyes and ears perk up and I truly get excited. Back in the fall of 2010, he said that the winter of 2012-3 would be cold and he has since maintained that forecast:

http://www.accuweath...s-could-m/36990

I haven't been able to locate the 2011-2 JB forecast, but I'm fairly confident it wasn't cold for the SE. It might have been close to normal. Regardless, whatever the exact fcast, he was too cold since it was so warm. So, he, like many, pretty much busted too cold. I do know that in late Dec., he said Jan. 2012 wouldn't be cold. That apparently was a change from earlier thinking.

Here is the 2010-11 map..this is definitely not cold and actually is warm for much of the E US; he actually turned out to be too WARM in the SE and overall did bust with his forecast:

http://www.stormtrac...10-2011-Outlook

Here is 2009-10, which he correctly had as cold and snowy. He did very well that winter...an A:

http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=2302

Here is 2008-9, which he had on the colder side for the E US and the coldest in several winters with bookends of cold surrounding a good Jan. thaw (I don't have the maps..so I don't have anything that says how cold..he definitely wasn't calling for a wall to wall brutally cold winter). He turned out to be spot on for the NE/Midwest, overall, where they did have their coldest winter overall since 2003-4 even though it was pretty much near normal overall. The SE US was a bit warmer than normal..he may have been a little too cold there, but I can't say for sure. Overall, I have to give him high marks for 2008-9. Read about that forecast here:

http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=1220

Here are my grades for JB for the last four winters:

2011-2: D; I'm almost sure it wasn't a cold fcast for SE US

2010-1: F; warm fcast for E US

2009-10: A; cold fcast for SE US

2008-9: B

Overall avg. last four winters: C. Not good but not terrible.

Like him or not, JB definitely has a rather unique approach to seasonal forecasting regarding teleconnections/analogs. Also, he definitely has the balls to swing for the fences and there never is a dull moment with him.

He is a forecaster just like all others right and wrong like all others doesnt matter how he does it.. he definitely is unique

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Sorry pal you wrong this time. Nhc said many times on tv they were not sure and changed track several times even three days out

As a long time Wunderground blogger for years, I can assure you this is just about the best the NHC will do with a track this far out. The small track changes make sense when you have the GFS and EURO what 100 miles apart w/ landfall 3 days out?

2pmmap_wide-ea028dbf5cdd30596f75955f0c046c28867a10b7.jpg

^ They seen it coming long ways out.

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He is a forecaster just like all others right and wrong like all others doesnt matter how he does it.. he definitely is unique

I agree with you .He is good at what he does.The only reason i can see some bash him is he doesn't believe in global warming .Neither do I.His belief is that weather runs in cycles and that ocean tempuratures have more to do with weather, or for the global warming few climate, that me burning a 100 watt bulb or grilling a steak .I'm sure i'll hit a nerve with some on here.Bottom line it's cheaper to cool a home than heat one.

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I agree with you .He is good at what he does.The only reason i can see some bash him is he doesn't believe in global warming .Neither do I.His belief is that weather runs in cycles and that ocean tempuratures have more to do with weather, or for the global warming few climate, that me burning a 100 watt bulb or grilling a steak .I'm sure i'll hit a nerve with some on here.Bottom line it's cheaper to cool a home than heat one.

First off I won't go into a diatribe about global warming. The earth is warming. That is accepted even by most skeptical folks. The question is are humans a factor in the warming or is it cyclical. I won't say where I stand as this isn't the place to discuss the topic. I do take issue with your " bottom line". Please explain why my gas and power bill added together is lower in the winter than the summer? I don't understand how you can make such a claim and not back it up with facts. I'm also waiting on your responce to the NHC nailing the Sandy track days out when you said they "blown" it.

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First off I won't go into a diatribe about global warming. The earth is warming. That is accepted even by most skeptical folks. The question is are humans a factor in the warming or is it cyclical. I won't say where I stand as this isn't the place to discuss the topic. I do take issue with your " bottom line". Please explain why my gas and power bill added together is lower in the winter than the summer? I don't understand how you can make such a claim and not back it up with facts. I'm also waiting on your responce to the NHC nailing the Sandy track days out when you said they "blown" it.

I knew it wouldn't take long one the global waming comment came out.As for your home you may be lucly but my power bill always runs more in winter ,when it cold, than it does in the summer.I can't help your is different .

As for the NHC blowing it i'm referring to the fact they didn't call it a Hurricane with the low pressure it produced before it made landfall.

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I knew it wouldn't take long one the global waming comment came out.As for your home you may be lucly but my power bill always runs more in winter ,when it cold, than it does in the summer.I can't help your is different .

As for the NHC blowing it i'm referring to the fact they didn't call it a Hurricane with the low pressure it produced before it made landfall.

In MariettaWx's defense, I thought he handled your difficult-to-decipher comment quite judiciously. He didn't blast anyone (including you) for agreeing with or hating on "Global Warning" alias "Climate Change" alias "AGW" alias "whatever you want to call it." Step back a little and don't be so eager to find an argument when it's not there. I'm sure there are plenty of people who would be willing to get into a good-ole-fashioned debate over in the Climate Change forums. Check it out:

http://www.americanw...climate-change/

By the way, my power bill is much lower in the winter than it is in the summer. In winter, we keep our temp at 68 during the day and 65 at night. In summer, we do 78 during the day and 75 at night (which is actually too warm for my tastes, but compromise/consensus is a beautiful thing!).

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As a long time Wunderground blogger for years, I can assure you this is just about the best the NHC will do with a track this far out. The small track changes make sense when you have the GFS and EURO what 100 miles apart w/ landfall 3 days out?

2pmmap_wide-ea028dbf5cdd30596f75955f0c046c28867a10b7.jpg

^ They seen it coming long ways out.

Funny several of the forecasters there were on fox news several times leading up to it and they said we are not really sure of the track. We dont know if it will make landfall or graze the coast and go out to sea. What they showed on computer is different from what they said on live tv. I know several in that area and they said little notice until three days before.

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In MariettaWx's defense, I thought he handled your difficult-to-decipher comment quite judiciously. He didn't blast anyone (including you) for agreeing with or hating on "Global Warning" alias "Climate Change" alias "AGW" alias "whatever you want to call it." Step back a little and don't be so eager to find an argument when it's not there. I'm sure there are plenty of people who would be willing to get into a good-ole-fashioned debate over in the Climate Change forums. Check it out:

http://www.americanw...climate-change/

By the way, my power bill is much lower in the winter than it is in the summer. In winter, we keep our temp at 68 during the day and 65 at night. In summer, we do 78 during the day and 75 at night (which is actually too warm for my tastes, but compromise/consensus is a beautiful thing!).

(1) Absolutely - MariettaWx is very good about that.

(2) Absolutely - way cheaper winter bills for me. I am speaking in terms of "electric" rather than "gas" though. In my line of work, the price of gas is lower at the moment - but I'm not sure about residential use.

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This thread is loltastic. The masses can read this thing and decide how the NHC did. The NHC actually took heat from some by keeping sandy classified as a hurricane until it made landfall. But now we have someone in this thread saying they are mad at the NHC for not keeping it classified as a hurricane longer based on the pressure? Tropical systems aren't classified by pressure readings alone. By the standards set by the NHC sandy was no longer a hurricane at landfall and the only reason it kept the hurricane tag as long as it did was due to the impacts it posed to the residents of the northeast. As for the track the NHC nailed it. Why would someone from the NHC get on TV close to landfall saying it may go out to sea when they had it pegged early on? It doesn't add up and I'm not shock at the uneducated garbage being spewed by some here.

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This thread is loltastic. The masses can read this thing and decide how the NHC did. The NHC actually took heat from some by keeping sandy classified as a hurricane until it made landfall. But now we have someone in this thread saying they are mad at the NHC for not keeping it classified as a hurricane longer based on the pressure? Tropical systems aren't classified by pressure readings alone. By the standards set by the NHC sandy was no longer a hurricane at landfall and the only reason it kept the hurricane tag as long as it did was due to the impacts it posed to the residents of the northeast. As for the track the NHC nailed it. Why would someone from the NHC get on TV close to landfall saying it may go out to sea when they had it pegged early on? It doesn't add up and I'm not shock at the uneducated garbage being spewed by some here.

Uneducated? Funny. I just said what was on tv. Wow what a big deal over nothing. I dont have a four year degree in weather. However i am very successful in what i do and i am educated in my field. I will see if i can better educate myself while watching the nhc. You are so funny with all your comments. Lol

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Uneducated? Funny. I just said what was on tv. Wow what a big deal over nothing. I dont have a four year degree in weather. However i am very successful in what i do and i am educated in my field. I will see if i can better educate myself while watching the nhc. You are so funny with all your comments. Lol

I wasn't talking about you but I'm glad you find me entertaining.

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