franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Not surprisingly, JB either ignores or somehow isn't aware of the GFS cold bias. Nothing new for him. As Jed Clampett used to say, pitiful, just pitiful. To compare, both the Euro and CDN ensemble means are only a little below normal at most. Larry, the euro is very cold in this time period as well. It just dumps the core of the cold into the Rockies. It really has more to do with the ridge in the eastern Pacific. The euro also has a bias of keeping a trough in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Larry, the euro is very cold in this time period as well. It just dumps the core of the cold into the Rockies. It really has more to do with the ridge in the eastern Pacific. The euro also has a bias of keeping a trough in the southwest. And a warm bias as well. Meeting between the GFS very cold and the Euro slight cold would be a very good setup I beleive. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Larry, the euro is very cold in this time period as well. It just dumps the core of the cold into the Rockies. It really has more to do with the ridge in the eastern Pacific. The euro also has a bias of keeping a trough in the southwest. My point is that JB's own cold bias is so bad that he mentions the coldest ensemble, which is not surprisingly the cold biased GEFS, without qualification and he doesn't even mention the other ensembles. Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 My point is that JB's own cold bias is so bad that he mentions the coldest ensemble, which is not surprisingly the cold biased GEFS, without qualification and he doesn't even mention the other ensembles. Terrible. Comparing the ensembles euro and gefs they are both very cold. Very similar as as far as departures. The euro just dumps the core into the west where as the gefs is farther east with the core. The CMC ensembles are very cold too. Looking at the members they are more plains east with the core than west/plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Comparing the ensembles euro and gefs they are both very cold. Very similar as as far as departures. The euro just dumps the core into the west where as the gefs is farther east with the core. The CMC ensembles are very cold too. Looking at the members they are more plains east with the core than west/plains. I'm talking about the SE US, only. The 11-15 day GFS ensemble mean's 850 mb temp.'s are ~ 7 F colder in the SE US than both the Euro and CDN ensemble means. Admittedly, I'm talking 850's rather than two meter temp.'s since that's what I have available to me to see. However, the idea is pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Anybody got an update from JB? TW What about Robert? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Anybody got an update from JB? TW What about Robert? Not much after next week. Looks warm after cold comes next week. Storms northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 What about Robert? Excellent post from Robert in this thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38633-rest-of-se-winter-best-by-far-yet-to-come-per-warm-decjan-analogs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Henry Margusity Fan Club ECMWF is starting to catch on to the storm this weekend. Notice how it finally hit the Wed storm for DC. Like · · Share · 116 · 8 minutes ago · 11 people like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 @wxmanbill: The Euro lays down an impressive snow pack over the nxt 10 days. Also sees 2nd big snow maker for the OV l8tr nxt wk http://pic.twitter.com/UfxH4fAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 CMC to be upgraded. It will be interesting to see if the CMC becomes the new GFS or a model we consider even closely. Could be the next big thing, who knows. If it's verification scores surpass the GFS it will be interesting to say the least. Via DT on facebook (wxrisk): "One of the reasons why the European is the best model the world is that it has a smallest resolution. This is similar to the idea of having more pixels of the photograph... to get a better photograph. The resolution on the European model is 16km per Grid point. But the European model also uses a vastly superior method of obtaining data from the atmosphere and putting it into the model : called 4DVAR.The British model also uses 4DVAR but the model resolution is not as high as it is the European- 25km.The GFS resolution is 27km only out to Day 8 after that it shifts to 50km. In addition the GFS uses the vastly inferior 3DVAR system. The GGEM (Canadian) Model was 33km) and also uses 3DVAR ." CMC Upgrade: "Today the Canadians announced a MAJOR upgrade to their model. FIRST they now going to run it 2x a day out to 240 hours. Over the past several years they have not done that with the afternoon or 12 run . SECOND the model resolution will improve significantly from 33KM to 25KM. THIRD and the MOST important the entire model is being upgraded to the vastly superior 4DVAR system... just like the one used in the European model. FOURTH the Canadian Met center review which is been pretty meticulous has showed a major increase the Canadians model accuracy and a significant lowering in its ROOT MEAN ERROR scores.It will be very interesting to see the next few weeks or months if the Canadian model actually verifies the preliminary testing of significant improvement with the 4DVAR. It would not surprise me if the Canadian model moved into second place behind the European as the most reliable model.... Assuming the initial assessment from the Canadians is correct." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 CMC to be upgraded. It will be interesting to see if the CMC becomes the new GFS or a model we consider even closely. Could be the next big thing, who knows. If it's verification scores surpass the GFS it will be interesting to say the least. Via DT on facebook (wxrisk): "One of the reasons why the European is the best model the world is that it has a smallest resolution. This is similar to the idea of having more pixels of the photograph... to get a better photograph. The resolution on the European model is 16km per Grid point. But the European model also uses a vastly superior method of obtaining data from the atmosphere and putting it into the model : called 4DVAR. The British model also uses 4DVAR but the model resolution is not as high as it is the European- 25km. The GFS resolution is 27km only out to Day 8 after that it shifts to 50km. In addition the GFS uses the vastly inferior 3DVAR system. The GGEM (Canadian) Model was 33km) and also uses 3DVAR ." CMC Upgrade: "Today the Canadians announced a MAJOR upgrade to their model. FIRST they now going to run it 2x a day out to 240 hours. Over the past several years they have not done that with the afternoon or 12 run . SECOND the model resolution will improve significantly from 33KM to 25KM. THIRD and the MOST important the entire model is being upgraded to the vastly superior 4DVAR system... just like the one used in the European model. FOURTH the Canadian Met center review which is been pretty meticulous has showed a major increase the Canadians model accuracy and a significant lowering in its ROOT MEAN ERROR scores. It will be very interesting to see the next few weeks or months if the Canadian model actually verifies the preliminary testing of significant improvement with the 4DVAR. It would not surprise me if the Canadian model moved into second place behind the European as the most reliable model.... Assuming the initial assessment from the Canadians is correct." When is the first run with the higher resolution going to be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Today at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 DT has video about next weekend on fb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 CMC to be upgraded. It will be interesting to see if the CMC becomes the new GFS or a model we consider even closely. Could be the next big thing, who knows. If it's verification scores surpass the GFS it will be interesting to say the least. Via DT on facebook (wxrisk): "One of the reasons why the European is the best model the world is that it has a smallest resolution. This is similar to the idea of having more pixels of the photograph... to get a better photograph. The resolution on the European model is 16km per Grid point. But the European model also uses a vastly superior method of obtaining data from the atmosphere and putting it into the model : called 4DVAR. The British model also uses 4DVAR but the model resolution is not as high as it is the European- 25km. The GFS resolution is 27km only out to Day 8 after that it shifts to 50km. In addition the GFS uses the vastly inferior 3DVAR system. The GGEM (Canadian) Model was 33km) and also uses 3DVAR ." CMC Upgrade: "Today the Canadians announced a MAJOR upgrade to their model. FIRST they now going to run it 2x a day out to 240 hours. Over the past several years they have not done that with the afternoon or 12 run . SECOND the model resolution will improve significantly from 33KM to 25KM. THIRD and the MOST important the entire model is being upgraded to the vastly superior 4DVAR system... just like the one used in the European model. FOURTH the Canadian Met center review which is been pretty meticulous has showed a major increase the Canadians model accuracy and a significant lowering in its ROOT MEAN ERROR scores. It will be very interesting to see the next few weeks or months if the Canadian model actually verifies the preliminary testing of significant improvement with the 4DVAR. It would not surprise me if the Canadian model moved into second place behind the European as the most reliable model.... Assuming the initial assessment from the Canadians is correct." Just an fyi... The CMC has been using the 4DVAR for quite some time. This is from dtk in the main forum: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39325-major-upgrade-coming-to-the-canadian-global-model/ Uhm, they have had a 4DVAR system for quite some time (and were still that much worse than us). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 JB today, BTW - I do not think this is the last time we see snow in the Carolinas this winter. In fact the ideas I alluded to above may have you guys, if not on the back side of a major eastern storm, in the the thick of it before 10 march. However for now, the worst is in the plains and its coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 JB again today thinks we still look good starting March 1 especially day 10-15. Carolinas look good he said. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 One of our favorites essentially said if you are north of I-20 in the east you will be unlucky if you flnish the winter below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 JB again today thinks we still look good starting March 1 especially day 10-15. Carolinas look good he said. We shall see Another big dog forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Another big dog forecast. You are a mess. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 One of our favorites essentially said if you are north of I-20 in the east you will be unlucky if you flnish the winter below normal. Who? Another bold statement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Who? Another bold statement... JB of course....:-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I guess were all gonna be very unlucky then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 JB of course....:-) He has missed the cold all winter but has alot. If you look at his winter forecast he has been pretty good except for us. Robert's forecast is a lot like jb. If we get our average snowfall then both nailed it. However he will never credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 JB of course....:-) Oh, boy... I'm not sure if I should be excited or not, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 He gas missed the cold all winter but has alot. If you look at his winter forecast he has been pretty good except for us. Robert's forecast is a lot like jb. If we get our average snowfall then both nailed it. However he will never credit. Lmao. JB was not close to robert. He only gets UK forecast right sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lmao. JB was not close to robert. He only gets UK forecast right sometimes. U better look at their forecast. Even Robert said their winter forecast are close. Sorry i dont look on fb to get roberts thoughts. I call him when a real threat is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Oh, boy... I'm not sure if I should be excited or not, haha. Your right but who knows how this winter will finish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 He has missed the cold all winter but has alot. If you look at his winter forecast he has been pretty good except for us. Robert's forecast is a lot like jb. If we get our average snowfall then both nailed it. However he will never credit. JB has sucked pretty badly this winter and last. I don't think one big storm to end the year will erase his failures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 JB has sucked pretty badly this winter and last. I don't think one big storm to end the year will erase his failures. If you harp for winter weather for every storm way in advance you will eventually hit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.