dsaur Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 We need cold but not extremely cold.I remember Jan 1985 after a mild Dec 1984 .Yes it has been like it is now before.We need it cold enough (28-30) would be ideal for snow but Not extremely cold. I'm with you! Although I love good cold weather, I love sleet and snow much more. Always want the colder air to come in after, to freeze down the goodies. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Comments from Raysweather for the NC High Country: http://www.averyweather.com/Forecast/Beech+Mountain A trailing low Thursday night will probably be too far south to produce significant snow, but at least it will be cold enough for ski slopes to be back in the snow-making business. The REALLY cold stuff comes next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 I would also like a meteorologically-backed opinion as to why a pattern change to transient or sustained cold (away from a SE ridge) ISN'T about to take place late next week no wish-casting has taken place... if the pattern is full of horsestuff, it will be described as such I see Mr. Bob saying very few mets have time to post their soliloquies (alright, cool story)... yet, all I have seen Bob post is Euro Weeklies & interestingly only when those weeklies have shown a warm forecast... yet, those weeklies are only posted from GaWx when they back up the cold argument (which they have backed up the cold argument the last week or so) must be more fun to be a warm-homer these days, yet it's kind of odd to harp on warm when overwhelming evidence points to the contrary there is zero meteorologially sound argument to the contrary of a cold pattern developing as the "currently strong" SE ridge gets choke-slammed next week "zero meteorologially sound argument" Really? So the Euro Ens mean shows a sustained cold pattern? What happened to the bitter cold tempartures set to arrive on the 18-19? Now out to the 22,23...I don't disagree that some modified Arctic air will break off and finally make it into the SE but it is by no means a record breaker and we might be lucky to hit the teens. Transient is not a pattern change by definition. Then the Ens mean goes back to a eastern weak -NAO and the PNA becomes much less pronounced. There is the huge flat zonal flow from the 4 corners to the Azores...you feel confident that the SE ridge won't flex its muscle again? I don't know if it will or not but I certainly can make a case for it probably more so than sustained cold. And let's not forget that the Euro Ens mean also shows significant warming in Canada making it that much more diffcult to sustain in the depicted pattern. I suppose for harmony's sake, I should just not let reality get in the way of fantasy land...I like a good winter storm as much as anyone, but I am only a warm homer when the pattern supports that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Peachtree City LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODELS IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM SOLUTION. THE H5 LOWTHAT HAS BEEN OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL FINALLY FILL AND LIFTNORTHEAST. THIS WILL SEND A FINAL SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE CWATHURSDAY AND EXIT THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A TIGHTTEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER THIS WILL CHANGEFRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THECWA FOR THE WEEKEND. AS THE PRECIP EXITS THURSDAY EVENING...THECOLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTH GA COULD BRING A MIX OF LIGHTRAIN/LIGHT SNOW IN THE EVENING AND WILL THEREFORE ADD THIS TO NORTHGA THURSDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 more N. GA news: Kirk Mellish even throwing out the "old man winter" thing again. http://www.wsbradio.com/weblogs/kirk-mellishs-weather-commentary/2013/jan/13/weather-shifting-old-man-winter-restless/ he usually does not use that term unless he thinks there is at least a good shot. I'll admit I skimmed it but I think he's talking around the 20th give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Poor Frank Straight. Said some snow/sleet could mix down with cold rain in the areas that were in the Winter Storm watches now Ice Storm Warnings. And that would be it. I think the HPC Ice maps need to be weighted more in making a forecast...the sleet storm here was in the bulls-eye from the HPC too...but Blacksburg disregarded the >80%chance and went with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Poor Frank Straight. Said some snow/sleet could mix down with cold rain in the areas that were in the Winter Storm watches now Ice Storm Warnings. And that would be it. I think the HPC Ice maps need to be weighted more in making a forecast...the sleet storm here was in the bulls-eye from the HPC too...but Blacksburg disregarded the >80%chance and went with rain. he used to be good for southeast but the last couple of years he has been about like Henry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Alright boys, buckle your seat belts, here's WXEastern's call: http://www.tnweatherspot.com Take out the snow for NC and SC and GA and it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 Take out the snow for NC and SC and GA and it's correct. You, Wilkes and Brick should form the three stooges with you as Moe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 You, Wilkes and Brick should form the three stooges with you as Moe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 14, 2013 Share Posted January 14, 2013 You, Wilkes and Brick should form the three stooges with you as Moe. Just being real. I hope you guys don't think its gonna snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 You, Wilkes and Brick should form the three stooges with you as Moe. Does that make Brick "Curly" since he has no hair? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 We should nominate someone as Shemp, you know, just in case Curly can't go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Saw this from WxSouth. Here's a look at the Arctic Oscillation. Last Winter was almost totally positive, above zero. But since Sandy, it's been strongly negative. This makes a negative October, November, December and almost positive that January will be negative... as well. In my study on the correlation between Southeast Winter Storms and the Negative AO, I concluded that in the end, having 3 consecutive months of negative AO will end up producing ABOVE average snow and ice across a good chunk of the upper South/Mid South and lower MidAtlantic regions. Now it looks like models are catching on to this, as some serious Arctic air will going to come down next week, then likely the week after that, meanwhile the storm track could be from the Northwest, across the lower Plains and into the Southeast. So my area of above normal snowfall would be northern sections of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and SC. And much of NC, and Virginia. If you believe in statistics, it's hard to ignore these facts....I stand by this study and if it fails, it would be the only time that I can see where the negative AO didn't produce. Guess we will see by season's end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Robert xxxxx > Wxrisk.com I think your area will get nailed. Have you seen how as the 5H feature holds in tact all through NC now, this will pivot snow back down from NC and into central VA, keeping a deformation axis there? The duration of this axis is now suprisingly low, with some serious rates, I think this will rival March 2009 in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WxSouth Saturated grounds in NC, VA, TN will spell doom when 6 to 12" of snow drops on them Thursday night. No sugar coating this, Trees will topple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WxSouth Saturated grounds in NC, VA, TN will spell doom when 6 to 12" of snow drops on them Thursday night. No sugar coating this, Trees will topple Lovely .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looks like RAH and WRAL are being really conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looks like RAH and WRAL are being really conservative.not conservative... realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 From Fb... xxx XXXX, Brick Tamland, on the upcoming storm: "WxSouth talking about rates of 2 inches per hour and trees coming down. RAH and WRAL are really downplaying things compared to this." Storm not likely to happen though until Widremann says it's over. a few seconds ago · Like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Talked to Robert this morning says its going to March 2009. Very similar and somebody is going to get pounded with heavy wet snow that will eventually accumulate some. If we only had cold air what could we have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 WxSouth2 hours ago Explanation of what went wrong for NC/GA/SC at www.wxsouth.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 FWIW--- (Which by many is not much!) JB had a excellent video today showing the JMA model long range and how he thinks it is going to be a cold Feb. a possible 76/77 look? He said he don't see a snowmeggedon but trough in the east with disturbances diving south out of the trying to phase along the east coast... Main thing is he thinks we stay cold or should I say no torch thru Feb.. Just thought I would throw this out there for those who are interested in what he has to say!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 FWIW--- (Which by many is not much!) JB had a excellent video today showing the JMA model long range and how he thinks it is going to be a cold Feb. a possible 76/77 look? He said he don't see a snowmeggedon but trough in the east with disturbances diving south out of the trying to phase along the east coast... Main thing is he thinks we stay cold or should I say no torch thru Feb.. Just thought I would throw this out there for those who are interested in what he has to say!!! Thanks for keeping us informed on JB's thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 lol Since when has the JMA ever been right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 lol Since when has the JMA ever been right. It nailed this trough we have right now in the east about two weeks out, and the cold coming next week!!! That's about all I know about it! please fill us in you seem to know more than Joe about that model... you tell us!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 19, 2013 Author Share Posted January 19, 2013 I don't know? you tell us!!! Last I checked that is one of the three stooges according to Burger. So doubt they will know what the JMA is. Once again you post comments from JB and somebody always has to show their great knowledge. I was a simple post about what JMA said. No different than a comment about any other GFS but JB said it so its always wrong. I didn't see where he said it was going snow or anything. Actually JB said two weeks ago that the JMA was showing cold that the models are now showing coming back next week. But the JMA is never right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Lol ok whatever. When Feb comes and we don't see 1976/77 cold, I'll be sure to remind you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 Last I checked that is one of the three stooges according to Burger. So doubt they will know what the JMA is. Once again you post comments from JB and somebody always has to show their great knowledge. I was a simple post about what JMA said. No different than a comment about any other GFS but JB said it so its always wrong. I didn't see where he said it was going snow or anything. Actually JB said two weeks ago that the JMA was showing cold that the models are now showing coming back next week. But the JMA is never right When he has he been right this ****ing winter? You guys believe anything. Stop trying to be a smartass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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