CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Wait. Doesn't your post really imply that you appreciate all those who agree with you? I haven't refuted or embraced the referenced tweets, but you basically just said that those who happen to hold the same opinion as Greg Fishel (and apparently yourself) are the ones who have it all figured out. Come on! Greg Fishel would no more bet with 100% certainty that his interpretation of the facts to date will not definitely lead to a big cool down than Robert (NCFoothills) would bet with 100% certainty that his interpretation of the facts to date will definitely lead to a big cool down. Both sides (I'm not trying to say these guys are at odds or anything, just using two different mets who seem to have differing views about what's to happen) take the facts available to them (models, patterns, history, synoptics, climatology, whatever) and do their best to predict what they think will happen. But, you can't damn (or laud) some poster on this board for agreeing (or disagreeing) with either viewpoint when we don't even know what will happen around 1/20 yet. Even after that date, what does it matter? Someone picked wrong. We all do from time to time. Let's just enjoy the ride and see what the weather brings. Boy, does the SE need some snow! Fortunately, we don't have to be in the deepest freeze for that to occur. Can we get a little love and have a few things come together? Well, I will say that Robert has done his homework and has shown us exactly why he thinks the cold is coming. He has used pattern analogs to back up his forecast. Greg just seems to be model watching and thinks that the cold will not be there when the verification time nears due to recent failures. That's the big difference here. I would put my money on Robert being closer to what actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Best post in this thread to date. The truth hurts sometimes folks. The reaction to this post pretty much sums up my disappointment with the board recently. Kudos to those that didn't try and refute it. Wait. Doesn't your post really imply that you appreciate all those who agree with you? I haven't refuted or embraced the referenced tweets, but you basically just said that those who happen to hold the same opinion as Greg Fishel (and apparently yourself) are the ones who have it all figured out. Come on! Greg Fishel would no more bet with 100% certainty that his interpretation of the facts to date will not definitely lead to a big cool down than Robert (NCFoothills) would bet with 100% certainty that his interpretation of the facts to date will definitely lead to a big cool down. Both sides (I'm not trying to say these guys are at odds or anything, just using two different mets who seem to have differing views about what's to happen) take the facts available to them (models, patterns, history, synoptics, climatology, whatever) and do their best to predict what they think will happen. But, you can't damn (or laud) some poster on this board for agreeing (or disagreeing) with either viewpoint when we don't even know what will happen around 1/20 yet. Even after that date, what does it matter? Someone picked wrong. We all do from time to time. Let's just enjoy the ride and see what the weather brings. Boy, does the SE need some snow! Fortunately, we don't have to be in the deepest freeze for that to occur. Can we get a little love and have a few things come together? Hey, you're back! You can't refute what's happened so far, that's for sure. But as much as I love the Fish, those tweets contain no more meteorology than half the posts on this board. Not that what he says isn't true...it just doesn't mean that it will be like that all winter. Well, I will say that Robert has done his homework and has shown us exactly why he thinks the cold is coming. He has used pattern analogs to back up his forecast. Greg just seems to be model watching and thinks that the cold will not be there when the verification time nears due to recent failures. That's the big difference here. I would put my money on Robert being closer to what actually happens. HEY HEY HEY! Everybody just back the **** up a second and realize that you are all saying the same thing: Brick will be the one person proven right in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 HEY HEY HEY! Everybody just back the **** up a second and realize that you are all saying the same thing: Brick will be the one person proven right in the end. Tru dat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Hey, you're back! You can't refute what's happened so far, that's for sure. But as much as I love the Fish, those tweets contain no more meteorology than half the posts on this board. Not that what he says isn't true...it just doesn't mean that it will be like that all winter. This. And that was my beef. The tweets sounded like some random poster on a message board emotionally hanging on each operational model run rather than a broadcast meteorologist conveying thoughts on the pattern. One would expect a modicum of scientific integrity from him as opposed to what amounted to text that might appear on a LOL cat image macro. If he's gonna put that silliness out there then people have a right to rip on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 FWIW-- JB, tonight!!! , let cut the small talk. All of us know what can happen late next week right. Southwest system kicks out and phases with the eastern trough on Friday.. A Texas to NC to NE snowstorm, arctic air to follow. Thats on the table. To whet your whistle check this out.. Bottom line. Keep your eye on the southwest energy. It may come out in time for a Thursday-Friday event, or the weekend Either way alot of cold is coming down the plains and spreading east. And I am confident the second half of the winter will live up to billing. It could start quicker than you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 FWIW-- JB, tonight!!! , let cut the small talk. All of us know what can happen late next week right. Southwest system kicks out and phases with the eastern trough on Friday.. A Texas to NC to NE snowstorm, arctic air to follow. Thats on the table. To whet your whistle check this out.. Bottom line. Keep your eye on the southwest energy. It may come out in time for a Thursday-Friday event, or the weekend Either way alot of cold is coming down the plains and spreading east. And I am confident the second half of the winter will live up to billing. It could start quicker than you know. Just checked the ENS mean, it has precip getting into NC, so it's wetter than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 HEY HEY HEY! Everybody just back the **** up a second and realize that you are all saying the same thing: Brick will be the one person proven right in the end. Nicely played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 FWIW-- JB, tonight!!! , let cut the small talk. All of us know what can happen late next week right. Southwest system kicks out and phases with the eastern trough on Friday.. A Texas to NC to NE snowstorm, arctic air to follow. Thats on the table. To whet your whistle check this out.. Bottom line. Keep your eye on the southwest energy. It may come out in time for a Thursday-Friday event, or the weekend Either way alot of cold is coming down the plains and spreading east. And I am confident the second half of the winter will live up to billing. It could start quicker than you know. Key word is can, honestly who thinks this is going to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Key word is can, honestly who thinks this is going to happen? You're seriously coming with that again? Cynicism is not the same as counter-point. Obviously, there are many who do think so. Posting the same belittling things over and over isn't going to change anyone's mind. But, you apparently have it all figured out - and since you're such a young revolutionary with all the answers, you should be making enough bank to retire early. Do you plan on circling back to all of these posts to explain yourself in the "off" chance that you're wrong? Because you have been absolutely determined to make sure we all know what you think of people who follow and listen to these Mets. To be perfectly blunt and honest, I do not yet believe this pattern will change based on what I've seen. That does not mean that I'm correct and it certainly doesn't give me a reason/right to basically call these Mets stupid hype mongers, as well as the people who follow them. And yes - I realize you haven't stated those words exactly, but rest assured that it comes across that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I'm ridin the DT train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 FWIW-- JB, tonight!!! , let cut the small talk. All of us know what can happen late next week right. Southwest system kicks out and phases with the eastern trough on Friday.. A Texas to NC to NE snowstorm, arctic air to follow. Thats on the table. To whet your whistle check this out.. Chances are not in our favor to experience back to back heavy qpf events within said time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Well, I will say that Robert has done his homework and has shown us exactly why he thinks the cold is coming. He has used pattern analogs to back up his forecast. Greg just seems to be model watching and thinks that the cold will not be there when the verification time nears due to recent failures. That's the big difference here. I would put my money on Robert being closer to what actually happens. The insanity of this statement....Good thing CAD still has me on ignore...Robert has done his homework...but Greg is just model watching....The Greg who has worked at the same big market station for 30+ years and has a PSU met degree? (and this is no poke at Robert...I know he does his homework) . I just don't understand what happens to people around here when they don't get to hear exactly what they want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 This. And that was my beef. The tweets sounded like some random poster on a message board emotionally hanging on each operational model run rather than a broadcast meteorologist conveying thoughts on the pattern. One would expect a modicum of scientific integrity from him as opposed to what amounted to text that might appear on a LOL cat image macro. If he's gonna put that silliness out there then people have a right to rip on it. Not everyone has the time or capability to write massive soliloquies on the weather pattern. But that does not make them any less wrong. For the last two winters there have been more than a few barking about cold winters and there has been no verification. Sure you can rip on it but climo and persistence are on his side. It is no less valid than the 4 paragraph posts which have been touting cold all winter from various posters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Not everyone has the time or capability to write massive soliloquies on the weather pattern. But that does not make them any less wrong. For the last two winters there have been more than a few barking about cold winters and there has been no verification. Sure you can rip on it but climo and persistence are on his side. It is no less valid than the 4 paragraph posts which have been touting cold all winter from various posters... Money > Models/Homework One does not simply forecast a drought and above normal temps for the public. Well, at least I never see it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I'm ridin the DT train. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 The insanity of this statement....Good thing CAD still has me on ignore...Robert has done his homework...but Greg is just model watching....The Greg who has worked at the same big market station for 30+ years and has a PSU met degree? (and this is no poke at Robert...I know he does his homework) . I just don't understand what happens to people around here when they don't get to hear exactly what they want. JB has 20+ years in a national market and a PSU met degree. Also, it's not that he is saying what "people don't want to hear" It's the fact that instead of showing with "science" why it's not going to get cold. He just lays a few tweets out there with nothing behind it other than "this is what happened before so it's gonna happen again stuff". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 JB has 20+ years in a national market and a PSU met degree. Also, it's not that he is saying what "people don't want to hear" It's the fact that instead of showing with "science" why it's not going to get cold. He just lays a few tweets out there with nothing behind it other than "this is what happened before so it's gonna happen again stuff". JB is another topic and I am staying away from that. The assumption is that he has no idea what he is talking about because he laid out a few tweets that annoy the cold lovers...You don't know what's behind it...If he had tweeted "Major Arctic Blast coming" then there would have been posts saying "Fish is on board!" and no one would be saying he has nothing behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 JB is another topic and I am staying away from that. The assumption is that he has no idea what he is talking about because he laid out a few tweets that annoy the cold lovers...You don't know what's behind it...If he had tweeted "Major Arctic Blast coming" then there would have been posts saying "Fish is on board!" and no one would be saying he has nothing behind it. Robert and JB both put something behind what they forecast. It's not just " hey its gonna be cold" In fact JB had the southeast above normal for the month of Jan. All that I am saying is they have done their homework and laid out their reasons why. That does not make them right, they could be wrong. The only thing I saw from Fishel was a few tweets. Why not put something behind it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Robert and JB both put something behind what they forecast. It's not just " hey its gonna be cold" In fact JB had the southeast above normal for the month of Jan. All that I am saying is they have done their homework and laid out their reasons why. That does not make them right, they could be wrong. The only thing I saw from Fishel was a few tweets. Why not put something behind it? My first post in this thread..... Not everyone has the time or capability to write massive soliloquies on the weather pattern. But that does not make them any less wrong. For the last two winters there have been more than a few barking about cold winters and there has been no verification. Sure you can rip on it but climo and persistence are on his side. It is no less valid than the 4 paragraph posts which have been touting cold all winter from various posters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Robert and JB both put something behind what they forecast. It's not just " hey its gonna be cold" In fact JB had the southeast above normal for the month of Jan. All that I am saying is they have done their homework and laid out their reasons why. That does not make them right, they could be wrong. The only thing I saw from Fishel was a few tweets. Why not put something behind it? Maybe he thinks it's pointless since it's more than a couple of days away, and is just going by what has happened all winter long. I don't see why it's any better if you keep trumping the cold and snow as long as you have reasons if it still it never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Maybe he thinks it's pointless since it's more than a couple of days away, and is just going by what has happened all winter long. I don't see why it's any better if you keep trumping the cold and snow as long as you have reasons if it still it never happens. Do keep meaning "trumpeting"? Because that would make a lot more sense. This is a question - not a dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Yeah, trumpeting. Sometimes I just type too fast for my own good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Yeah, trumpeting. Sometimes I just type too fast for my own good. That's why you often get trumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Yeah, trumpeting. Sometimes I just type too MUCH for my own good. FYP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 FYP! It took me a minute to see it - but it was a glorious discovery once I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 JB is another topic and I am staying away from that. The assumption is that he has no idea what he is talking about because he laid out a few tweets that annoy the cold lovers...You don't know what's behind it...If he had tweeted "Major Arctic Blast coming" then there would have been posts saying "Fish is on board!" and no one would be saying he has nothing behind it. THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! If someone mentions it not getting cold, everyone tries to jump on them. Even when its obvious it won't snow or get cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Not everyone has the time or capability to write massive soliloquies on the weather pattern. But that does not make them any less wrong. For the last two winters there have been more than a few barking about cold winters and there has been no verification. Sure you can rip on it but climo and persistence are on his side. It is no less valid than the 4 paragraph posts which have been touting cold all winter from various posters... I never said Fishel was wrong. I said he was trolling, which he clearly was. He put out some snarky tweets and appeared to be dispelling the arctic blast talk with only one operational Euro run as evidence. I follow all sorts of broadcast mets on twitter. You don't have to write massive soliloquies to convey sound scientific reasoning. Fishel is the only one I've seen putting out lame tweets like that. It's also funny that he's gone mysteriously silent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! If someone mentions it not getting cold, everyone tries to jump on them. Even when its obvious it won't snow or get cold. Actually - many also find the opposite to that being the case. The truth is that YOU see what YOU want to see. And are you STILL blowing that same goose horn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 FWIW- My friends in Ontario just over the Minnesota border have posted a winter storm warning alert. If my IT executive were home from school, I could post it here but the jist of it is this: expect 25 to 30 centimeters of snowfall. According to my expert calculations, and thanks to government education, I think that equivocates to 7.2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 FWIW- My friends in Ontario just over the Minnesota border have posted a winter storm warning alert. If my IT executive were home from school, I could post it here but the jist of it is this: expect 25 to 30 centimeters of snowfall. According to my expert calculations, and thanks to government education, I think that equivocates to 7.2 feet. Great example of why we should be pushing money to privatize education!!!!! TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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