Isopycnic Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Great read as always from Robert. indeed b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 lol Key words: Could, may, possible, Often, potential http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/nasty-cold-waves-could-be-in-t/3586088 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 More hype Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi No End to Coldest China Winter in 28 Years, Forecaster Sayshttp://bloom.bg/Zb2J6v via @BloombergNews EUROPE,US NEXT IN 10 DAYS Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Good news for ND! Snowcover going away next 5 days. Bad news, a long cold winter starts next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Yay for China.... and Russia and Europe and Antarctica and the North Pole and Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 Robert just now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2013 Share Posted January 8, 2013 And then WxSouth posted this. 12Z run of the Euro also sees a volatile change coming to North American continent. By day 10 it sends the Polar Vortex tumbling down to the northern Lakes and across the Northeast states...extreme bitter air wil be with it, but I wouldn't take this track as absolute truth yet. The important thing is that all models are going to have trouble adjusting to the pattern change, and some areas are goin...g to get extremely cold. Possibly the coldest in many years. Then things could get blocked up in Canada, Greenland regions and when that happens usually the United States has below normal temps for a while, so thats why the longer range models have been showing the cool down, like CFS model. One thing to note on GFS and ECMWF are the big Arctic Highs shown lately. They never materialized last Winter in most of North America (not even really on the longer range progs). Again, this isn't last Winter. Change is afoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Greg Fishel has been really pessimistic about the cold coming....his last 4 tweets from earlier to most recent: Greg Fishel @gbfishel Funny how there is so much talk about frigid air in the long term, but very little about incredible warmth starting later this week! Greg Fishel @gbfishel Oh and by the way, ECMWF says "not so fast" on the incredible cold a week out and beyond. This carrot has been dangled since late November. Greg Fishel @gbfishel The SPCA needs to get involved with forecasters who insist it'll still get very cold in the SE US. If the horse isn't dead, it's suffering! Greg Fishel @gbfishel As verification time draws near, once again we see the apocalyptic arctic outbreak go up in smoke. Reality leads hype 10-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Greg Fishel has been really pessimistic about the cold coming....his last 4 tweets from earlier to most recent: Greg Fishel @gbfishel Funny how there is so much talk about frigid air in the long term, but very little about incredible warmth starting later this week! Greg Fishel @gbfishel Oh and by the way, ECMWF says "not so fast" on the incredible cold a week out and beyond. This carrot has been dangled since late November. Greg Fishel @gbfishel The SPCA needs to get involved with forecasters who insist it'll still get very cold in the SE US. If the horse isn't dead, it's suffering! Greg Fishel @gbfishel As verification time draws near, once again we see the apocalyptic arctic outbreak go up in smoke. Reality leads hype 10-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Greg Fishel has been really pessimistic about the cold coming....his last 4 tweets from earlier to most recent: Greg Fishel @gbfishel Funny how there is so much talk about frigid air in the long term, but very little about incredible warmth starting later this week! Greg Fishel @gbfishel Oh and by the way, ECMWF says "not so fast" on the incredible cold a week out and beyond. This carrot has been dangled since late November. Greg Fishel @gbfishel The SPCA needs to get involved with forecasters who insist it'll still get very cold in the SE US. If the horse isn't dead, it's suffering! Greg Fishel @gbfishel As verification time draws near, once again we see the apocalyptic arctic outbreak go up in smoke. Reality leads hype 10-0 The last one was funny, reality vs hype! Definitely gives you pause when one of the best is a non-believer. If we don't start getting some evidence of cold coming in the next 7-10 days it will be time to punt the entire winter. Than we have to hope we are not in a multi year stretch like 05-08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 The last one was funny, reality vs hype! Definitely gives you pause when one of the best is a non-believer. If we don't start getting some evidence of cold coming in the next 7-10 days it will be time to punt the entire winter. Than we have to hope we are not in a multi year stretch like 05-08. I'm not saying the cold is holding off for me to get back from California...ok that's what I'm saying. I'm not impressed with the last few runs....BUT I do think it makes it down here as Larry has said around the 20th or beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Who is greg fishel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Greg Fishel has been really pessimistic about the cold coming....his last 4 tweets from earlier to most recent: Greg Fishel @gbfishel Funny how there is so much talk about frigid air in the long term, but very little about incredible warmth starting later this week! Greg Fishel @gbfishel Oh and by the way, ECMWF says "not so fast" on the incredible cold a week out and beyond. This carrot has been dangled since late November. Greg Fishel @gbfishel The SPCA needs to get involved with forecasters who insist it'll still get very cold in the SE US. If the horse isn't dead, it's suffering! Greg Fishel @gbfishel As verification time draws near, once again we see the apocalyptic arctic outbreak go up in smoke. Reality leads hype 10-0 I think Fish is the best at short range. However, I don't think long range to be his strength. Tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Greg Fishel has been really pessimistic about the cold coming....his last 4 tweets from earlier to most recent: Greg Fishel @gbfishel Funny how there is so much talk about frigid air in the long term, but very little about incredible warmth starting later this week! Greg Fishel @gbfishel Oh and by the way, ECMWF says "not so fast" on the incredible cold a week out and beyond. This carrot has been dangled since late November. Greg Fishel @gbfishel The SPCA needs to get involved with forecasters who insist it'll still get very cold in the SE US. If the horse isn't dead, it's suffering! Greg Fishel @gbfishel As verification time draws near, once again we see the apocalyptic arctic outbreak go up in smoke. Reality leads hype 10-0 The last one was funny, reality vs hype! Definitely gives you pause when one of the best is a non-believer. If we don't start getting some evidence of cold coming in the next 7-10 days it will be time to punt the entire winter. Than we have to hope we are not in a multi year stretch like 05-08. The Fish with the smackdown! LIke he said, we have seen this over and over again. It's always 10 days out for the good stuff, only for Lucy to pull the football away when we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Greg doesn't do LR forecasting. Not to say he wouldn't be good at it or is not right in this case. We've talked about it and it's not something he spends a lot of time focusing on. However, that said, he's probably forgotten more about it than I will ever know, so what he has to say does carry a lot of weight in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Greg Fishel has been really pessimistic about the cold coming....his last 4 tweets from earlier to most recent: Greg Fishel @gbfishel Funny how there is so much talk about frigid air in the long term, but very little about incredible warmth starting later this week! Greg Fishel @gbfishel Oh and by the way, ECMWF says "not so fast" on the incredible cold a week out and beyond. This carrot has been dangled since late November. Greg Fishel @gbfishel The SPCA needs to get involved with forecasters who insist it'll still get very cold in the SE US. If the horse isn't dead, it's suffering! Greg Fishel @gbfishel As verification time draws near, once again we see the apocalyptic arctic outbreak go up in smoke. Reality leads hype 10-0 I'm not familiar with this Fishel character. I'm sure he's a talented guy, but I don't care for his snark on this matter. It's not that I'm against looking at the pitfalls of something like this either. "Funny how there is so much talk about frigid air in the long term, but very little about incredible warmth starting later this week!" Where is he listening? Weather forums have been talking non-stop about this warm up for at least a couple of weeks. "Oh and by the way, ECMWF says "not so fast" on the incredible cold a week out and beyond. This carrot has been dangled since late November." Sensible people aren't hanging on each operational model run and are looking at a plethora of features and indices. "The SPCA needs to get involved with forecasters who insist it'll still get very cold in the SE US. If the horse isn't dead, it's suffering!" LOLWUT. "As verification time draws near, once again we see the apocalyptic arctic outbreak go up in smoke. Reality leads hype 10-0" The reality is you sound childish and seem to be trolling with your twitter account. Perhaps you should schedule an appointment with Don Sutherland before chiming in next time. Again, I'm not against looking at the negative side of things but those were some pretty much all around lame tweets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I'm not familiar with this Fishel character. I'm sure he's a talented guy, but I don't care for his snark on this matter. It's not that I'm against looking at the pitfalls of something like this either. "Funny how there is so much talk about frigid air in the long term, but very little about incredible warmth starting later this week!" Where is he listening? Weather forums have been talking non-stop about this warm up for at least a couple of weeks. "Oh and by the way, ECMWF says "not so fast" on the incredible cold a week out and beyond. This carrot has been dangled since late November." Sensible people aren't hanging on each operational model run and are looking at a plethora of features and indices. "The SPCA needs to get involved with forecasters who insist it'll still get very cold in the SE US. If the horse isn't dead, it's suffering!" LOLWUT. "As verification time draws near, once again we see the apocalyptic arctic outbreak go up in smoke. Reality leads hype 10-0" The reality is you sound childish and seem to be trolling with your twitter account. Perhaps you should schedule an appointment with Don Sutherland before chiming in next time. Again, I'm not against looking at the negative side of things but those were some pretty much all around lame tweets. Yeah he's no LR forecaster, but I respect his opinion because of his experience. One of the best local mets we have and he does like snow. He jumped in a freezing cold fountain at WRAL studios because he said it would snow or that we would get snow within a certain period and we didn't, so he jumped live on the air. Usually the pessimist when it comes to winter for WRAL is Mike Maze. Again, they're just local mets but when the snow loving weenie gives up, it gets my attention at least. Here's his bio: http://www.wral.com/rs/bio/1010713/ First certified broadcast met, develops exam, emmy award winner, etc etc. I don't think he'd care to sit down with Don, unfortunately. He definitely should though, would be an interesting convo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Yeah he's no LR forecaster, but I respect his opinion because of his experience. One of the best local mets we have and he does like snow. He jumped in a freezing cold fountain at WRAL studios because he said it would snow or that we would get snow within a certain period and we didn't, so he jumped live on the air. Usually the pessimist when it comes to winter for WRAL is Mike Maze. Again, they're just local mets but when the snow loving weenie gives up, it gets my attention at least. Here's his bio: http://www.wral.com/rs/bio/1010713/ First certified broadcast met, develops exam, emmy award winner, etc etc. I don't think he'd care to sit down with Don, unfortunately. He definitely should though, would be an interesting convo. Would love to have him and some other local TV mets on here. Seems most on here are optimistic about the cold and winter weather chances after the 20th, but Fishel is saying not so fast. And then today we already see the models backing off the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Would love to have him and some other local TV mets on here. Seems most on here are optimistic about the cold and winter weather chances after the 20th, but Fishel is saying not so fast. And then today we already see the models backing off the cold. I've told him about posting here multiple times, but I honestly don't think he has the time for it. He keeps a really busy schedule. I keep hoping, though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I've told him about posting here multiple times, but I honestly don't think he has the time for it. He keeps a really busy schedule. I keep hoping, though.... Nate Johnson would be a good one, too. He seems to be really active on twitter. Heck, even Mike Maze or Elizabeth Gardner. But Fishel would be the big dog to get on here for the Triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 Fish is a snow weenie like the rest off us on here. Ask Joe Bastardi about the fish, they worked together on radio back in college or right after. Heard JB tell a story or two on their time together. Anyway these Raleigh guys are right about the fish. Back in the 80's when I lived down east he started on WRAL and is as good a met as they have in that area back then and probably still is today. Time is runing out fast on any chance to enjoy an extended period of winter weather where it snows and is still lying around a week latter waiting on more. If we get burned on the 1/20 to 2/2 time frame, then it becomes all about just hoping for one event in order to avoid the shutout. I'm usually one of the more optimistic ones on here. That being said these next 5-8 days are huge in that we need to see the 10 day TC's/Models, start getting under the 5-7 day range. It's not unusual to see models flip -flop as a pattern change is unfolding while they try to figure it out, but this time I'm betting the streak until we get some consistency in the 5 day range showing the SE ridge is gonna back down. This pattern of above average temp/ Below average Precip has been going on for the most part since February of 2011 for my micro-climate. There have been one or 2 months that have been the exception to this rule over the past 24 months, but they are just hicups and thats it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I think if we don't get one big storm by the end of this month, we're not going to see much winter weather at all around here, if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I think if we don't get one big storm by the end of this month, we're not going to see much winter weather at all around here, if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 I think if we don't get one big storm by the end of this month, we're not going to see much winter weather at all around here, if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 @RyanMaue: ECMWF 12z is so cold at 850-mb, I had to extend °C temp anomaly colorbar using Borg-approved green colors. http://t.co/bPVMvSCD And it misses us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 9, 2013 Share Posted January 9, 2013 JB seems to be focusing more on February now! Cold and probably stormy month???? Next...................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Here is where winter went: @BigJoeBastardi: Cold wave in Asia and Europe may be worst in half a century and cause major economic and human hardships http://t.co/922wYwm5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Here is where winter went: @BigJoeBastardi: Cold wave in Asia and Europe may be worst in half a century and cause major economic and human hardships http://t.co/922wYwm5 It feels like the east coast of the US is the only place in the NH that should be getting winter that hasn't gotten winter. But that's probably just me being a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Greg Fishel has been really pessimistic about the cold coming....his last 4 tweets from earlier to most recent: Greg Fishel @gbfishel Funny how there is so much talk about frigid air in the long term, but very little about incredible warmth starting later this week! Greg Fishel @gbfishel Oh and by the way, ECMWF says "not so fast" on the incredible cold a week out and beyond. This carrot has been dangled since late November. Greg Fishel @gbfishel The SPCA needs to get involved with forecasters who insist it'll still get very cold in the SE US. If the horse isn't dead, it's suffering! Greg Fishel @gbfishel As verification time draws near, once again we see the apocalyptic arctic outbreak go up in smoke. Reality leads hype 10-0 Best post in this thread to date. The truth hurts sometimes folks. The reaction to this post pretty much sums up my disappointment with the board recently. Kudos to those that didn't try and refute it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Best post in this thread to date. The truth hurts sometimes folks. The reaction to this post pretty much sums up my disappointment with the board recently. Kudos to those that didn't try and refute it. Wait. Doesn't your post really imply that you appreciate all those who agree with you? I haven't refuted or embraced the referenced tweets, but you basically just said that those who happen to hold the same opinion as Greg Fishel (and apparently yourself) are the ones who have it all figured out. Come on! Greg Fishel would no more bet with 100% certainty that his interpretation of the facts to date will not definitely lead to a big cool down than Robert (NCFoothills) would bet with 100% certainty that his interpretation of the facts to date will definitely lead to a big cool down. Both sides (I'm not trying to say these guys are at odds or anything, just using two different mets who seem to have differing views about what's to happen) take the facts available to them (models, patterns, history, synoptics, climatology, whatever) and do their best to predict what they think will happen. But, you can't damn (or laud) some poster on this board for agreeing (or disagreeing) with either viewpoint when we don't even know what will happen around 1/20 yet. Even after that date, what does it matter? Someone picked wrong. We all do from time to time. Let's just enjoy the ride and see what the weather brings. Boy, does the SE need some snow! Fortunately, we don't have to be in the deepest freeze for that to occur. Can we get a little love and have a few things come together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Best post in this thread to date. The truth hurts sometimes folks. The reaction to this post pretty much sums up my disappointment with the board recently. Kudos to those that didn't try and refute it. Hey, you're back! You can't refute what's happened so far, that's for sure. But as much as I love the Fish, those tweets contain no more meteorology than half the posts on this board. Not that what he says isn't true...it just doesn't mean that it will be like that all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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