POWERSTROKE Posted December 31, 2012 Author Share Posted December 31, 2012 WOW! DT says don't think it will be cold in Jan. JB says a lot of cold in west Jan 10th plains 15th east coast 20th? severely cold air coming into the us middle of January west first then spreading east... JB says warm up will be short lived??? We'll see!!! So middle of road and probably normal temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 That is a good point Sir. However, I will take colder weather and the ability to track systems that never seem to happen For my money this is worse. Colder weather with occasional teases of snow but nothing produced vs last years temps in the 60s and sometimes 70s making golf a winter sport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 31, 2012 Author Share Posted December 31, 2012 Dt just posted on fb that all hope may not be lost. Sees cold mid jan coming back. Wow jb and dt agree. No way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Dt just posted on fb that all hope may not be lost. Sees cold mid jan coming back. Wow jb and dt agree. No way! Heard that song before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Frank Strait Fan Club A stratosphere warming event is getting underway. Somebody's gonna freeze their tail off in 2-3 weeks. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Frank Strait Fan Club A stratosphere warming event is getting underway. Somebody's gonna freeze their tail off in 2-3 weeks. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml Old news and this post belongs in the around the web tidbits thread. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38406-january-pattern-and-storm-discussion/page__st__980 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Frank Strait Fan Club A stratosphere warming event is getting underway. Somebody's gonna freeze their tail off in 2-3 weeks. http://www.cpc.ncep....emp10anim.shtml PNA will probably go neagtive. Better chance it will (at least initially) be the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 1, 2013 Author Share Posted January 1, 2013 Not looking good for january. Just talked to Robert he says at least to mid jan but could be longer. Huffman tweeted warm through jan after this week. Looks like alot of forecast will bust this year unless a major change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 1, 2013 Author Share Posted January 1, 2013 Not at my pc right now but if I recall on the sfc it popped a weak low off the coast and had very light qpf into the coastal areas of NC Sent from my EVO 2 I just talked to Robert he said no deal this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Just read JB's blog on the weeklies, he is difinitely looking for the nearest cliff, I have never seen him so pessimistic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Just read JB's blog on the weeklies, he is difinitely looking for the nearest cliff, I have never seen him so pessimistic... Just checked myself.....it is a reason for concern: From Joe: The ECWMF weeklies last night, if correct, would mean my ideas would be blown out of the water. There is simply no sugar coating what it is saying. winter for much of the US would be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Just read JB's blog on the weeklies, he is difinitely looking for the nearest cliff, I have never seen him so pessimistic... What's he worried about? He believed the data when it showed wall to wall cold in Jan. It turns out it's going to be wrong. Now that it shows warm, is it less likely to be wrong? Maybe. I dunno. It's all one big crapshoot anywho. Am I right or am I right or am I right?? Right right right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 What's he worried about? He believed the data when it showed wall to wall cold in Jan. It turns out it's going to be wrong. Now that it shows warm, is it less likely to be wrong? Maybe. I dunno. It's all one big crapshoot anywho. Am I right or am I right or am I right?? Right right right.... What I was thinking too...the CFS is still adamant around Jan 20th will be a flip and the last 10 days will be cold. The Euro weeklies come out again on Thursday, maybe they flip back. Last Thursdays weeklies showed the Jan 20th flip too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Great point! Just continues to show you that long range ideas are a 50 50 shot at best... What I was thinking too...the CFS is still adamant around Jan 20th will be a flip and the last 10 days will be cold. The Euro weeklies come out again on Thursday, maybe they flip back. Last Thursdays weeklies showed the Jan 20th flip too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 1, 2013 Author Share Posted January 1, 2013 Not only will JB forecast be down the drain so will a lot others. Robert told me today its not looking good either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 What's he worried about? He believed the data when it showed wall to wall cold in Jan. It turns out it's going to be wrong. Now that it shows warm, is it less likely to be wrong? Maybe. I dunno. It's all one big crapshoot anywho. Am I right or am I right or am I right?? Right right right.... Nope, you're not right when it comes to winter weather in our area. Lets face it. In the Southeast, a long range model is much more likely to be correct when it forecasts no opportunity for snow. This is simply because 95 percent of the time we won't be getting any. As you move north chances improve and your 50-50 idea would be closer to being true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Nope, you're not right when it comes to winter weather in our area. Lets face it. In the Southeast, a long range model is much more likely to be correct when it forecasts no opportunity for snow. This is simply because 95 percent of the time we won't be getting any. As you move north chances improve and your 50-50 idea would be closer to being true. The last little bit there was a quote from the movie Groundhog Day, which is actually quite appropriate for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 The last little bit there was a quote from the movie Groundhog Day, which is actually quite appropriate for this winter. It may make sense to move Groundhog Day to Jan 2. At least for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 It may make sense to move Groundhog Day to Jan 2. At least for this area. Or even December 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Still waiting for all of this crazy warmth I've been hearing about since the beginning of December. I'm just going to assume that it must not be for my area - because it hasn't been so far. Plus an added bonus of above normal rains...score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Like last year, If we are waiting on so called Jan 20 flip and that turns out to be the case, then come Jan 20 I'm gonna be sitting here with only 6 weeks of winter left trying to avoid a snowless accumulation shutout once again. Last year MBY scored a few inches in February to avoid this catastraophe and I swore back then if I could get accum snow during that crappy wall to wall winter, then I'll never expierence a complete winter w/o accum snow. I hate to waste my seasonal average of snowfall on February/March events because it dissapears as fast as it falls. however this is what the winter of 2012/2013 has been reduced to once again. Maybe we'll get lucky and get a March 1960 or single event like Feb 2004 to put some salt on the wounds. The old saying "winter will remember December" may prove right. I don't see +6 temp departure like last january, but I also don't see alot of qpf on the horizon after today eitheir over the next 10 days. Looks alot like a repeat of the first 15-20 days of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Just checked myself.....it is a reason for concern:From Joe: The ECWMF weeklies last night, if correct, would mean my ideas would be blown out of the water. There is simply no sugar coating what it is saying. winter for much of the US would be over. Despite the fact that yesterday's Euro weelies for weeks 2-4 were quite warm, what he is saying doesn't make much sense considering that the Euro weeklies go out only to 1/27 lol! Based on analogs, I do feel Jan. is, indeed, likely to be mild to warm vs. normals here in the SE US and that Feb. will likely be either near normal or mild as a whole. However, I don't at all think winter would be over, whatsoever, in the SE US even when accepting a mild Jan and a not cold Feb. as a whole. He has a tendency to go for the extreme and I think he's overreacting too much toward the other extreme. Then again, I'm talking only about the SE US and I'm not saying I'm expecting wall to wall cold in Feb. or Mar. I definitely do feel that the best of this winter, by far, is coming during the period late Jan.-Mar. and the best of the winter could very well wait til March per warm Dec. analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Despite the fact that yesterday's Euro weelies for weeks 2-4 were quite warm, what he is saying doesn't make much sense considering that the Euro weeklies go out only to 1/27 lol! Based on analogs, I do feel Jan. is, indeed, likely to be mild to warm vs. normals here in the SE US and that Feb. will likely be either near normal or mild as a whole. However, I don't at all think winter would be over, whatsoever, in the SE US even when accepting a mild Jan and a not cold Feb. as a whole. He has a tendency to go for the extreme and I think he's overreacting too much toward the other extreme. Then again, I'm talking only about the SE US and I'm not saying I'm expecting wall to wall cold in Feb. or Mar. I definitely do feel that the best of this winter, by far, is coming during the period late Jan.-Mar. and the best of the winter could very well wait til March per warm Dec. analogs. Great Post! I don't understand JB at times....I think he can be good on picking up patterns but tends to overhype on both ends. Yeah, it looks like there could be a mid-month warm up, which is typical for the SE. I FULLY expect there will be periods of cold and wintery wx in the late Jan to Feb timeframe. I guess only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 When I was a kid ( 10 years ago He He) We used to call it a January thaw. Now it seems it's the END of winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 Great Post! I don't understand JB at times....I think he can be good on picking up patterns but tends to overhype on both ends. Yeah, it looks like there could be a mid-month warm up, which is typical for the SE. I FULLY expect there will be periods of cold and wintery wx in the late Jan to Feb timeframe. I guess only time will tell. He never said winter is over. He said if weeklies are right winter "could" be toast for much of US. He said his forecast would go down the drain. No sugar coating it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 DT said there may be some hope end of month. However not banking on it yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 <blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="POWERSTROKE" data-cid="1976710" data-time="1357095156"><p> DT said there may be some hope end of month. However not banking on it yet</p></blockquote> He says that every month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 Dt does say that every month but so do models and everybody else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Interesting read. Not wanting to begin a climo debate. Just trying to show that Alaska has been very cold in contrast to us during the past winter and a half. Does somewhat illustrate the inverse temp relationship that we have with them at times. The headline is not indicative of the article...does not have to do with another ice age. Must have been an editor that wrote the headline. Anyway, enjoy the read. http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/forget-global-warming-alaska-headed-ice-age?page=0,0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Firsthand Weather I'm always just blown away at how forecasters/meteorologists start to either question or ditch their winter forecasts just as soon as we're about to go into a warmer period. Mid January going into February still looks to be VERY active with brutal cold and plenty of snow for many regions of the United States. I have never felt that we were going to lock into a very cold pattern for all 3 months, but I do believe that when the winter is over. . .many will be content with the overall outcome of the winter if you like snow and cold. This is particularly true for those that live in the eastern two-thirds of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.