WilkesboroDude Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 As of now, pretty sure its still torched. You have to average way below to even out the way above that happened this month. Not sure if a few 30 degree highs will fix that. Maybe someone with more expertise will know where we stand and if its even possible to average non-torchy this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 As of now, pretty sure its still torched. You have to average way below to even out the way above that happened this month. Not sure if a few 30 degree highs will fix that. Maybe someone with more expertise will know where we stand and if its even possible to average non-torchy this month. Based on the forecast of very warm for the next four days for the E US as a whole and no colder than averaging slightly below normal for the last 10 days (and that may be generous), the final avg. will almost definitely be a torch for the E US as a whole and will very likely be one of the warmest since 1950. December is cooked, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Based on the forecast of very warm for the next four days for the E US as a whole and no colder than averaging slightly below normal for the last 10 days (and that may be generous), the final avg. will almost definitely be a torch for the E US as a whole and will very likely be one of the warmest since 1950. December is cooked, folks. Which goes on to secure the warmest year in recorded history for the US. We torched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Folks, Well, JB has had a really bad Dec. Hopefully he'll improve in Jan. Let's see how he does: Per JB: "ECMWF monthlies engulf nation in cold air through mid Jan, have negative NAO entire time" (I agree 100% with this Euro analysis) "CFSV2 looking alot like what the ECMWF is implying for Jan in its 30 day run.:" http://twitter.com/B...9155968/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 New live streaming base cam at Beech Mountain. http://www.beechmountainresort.com/mountain/base_cam.html Yea yea we know.....Heart of winter key snow ski time and NO SNOW I just talked to a business up in Nebraska and their ground is bare also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 It's going to be painful to watch DT's forecast go down in flames for the 26/27th, I do like reading his forecasts though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 It's going to be painful to watch DT's forecast go down in flames for the 26/27th, I do like reading his forecasts though... Yup. He'll have to do another "I was wrong" post. I also like reading his stuff. He's so excitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow86 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Yup. He'll have to do another "I was wrong" post. I also like reading his stuff. He's so excitable. Some of the red tagger's forecasts on here are going to go down in flames with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Some of the red tagger's forecasts on here are going to go down in flames with him. Who on here made a forecast for this storm already? I saw what dt posted, nobody else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 JB still going with 50% of conus having a white Christmas? Haven't heard/seen anything lately. He may just end up being right if the timing works out on next weeks storm. He would need the inland runner/miller b scenerio to play out in order to verify from his earlly December call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi Post christmas noreaster with heavy inland snows.. big cities in battle ground snow/ice/rain, snow to I40 in south. Winter taking over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi Post christmas noreaster with heavy inland snows.. big cities in battle ground snow/ice/rain, snow to I40 in south. Winter taking over! JB's credibility has taken a big hit this month. He's got some work to do to restore it. Hopefully, he'll be right about a cold Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 JB's credibility has taken a big hit this month. He's got some work to do to restore it. Hopefully, he'll be right about a cold Jan. Yes, I agree!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 WxSouth On the Storm...we have 2 basic camps of weather model tracks. The Euro and GFS are going with a storm track into northern Alabama and eastern Tennessee, before transferring energy to eastern NC then the storm goes up the East Coast. But UKMET and GGEM (British and Canadian models) are more southerly before turning up the East Coast. Those could be doing this because of the big blocking in Canada, but usually GFS/Euro is hard to beat on storm tracks, and I don't recall many times the GGEM has beat these two, but if there were ever any situation they could, this might be it. If it's right and the storm doesn't pull into Eastern Tennessee, then that opens the door to more snow on the northwest side of the track while northern La, northern Miss, and much of Tennessee would get hit with significant snow, and a MAJOR snowstorm would occur the entire span of the Apps , from Asheville points north to interior and western VA, where already we know some areas will be snow, some will be ICE. I'll be watching new model runs to see exactly where the track is. Right now I'd be preparing for the worst in central and western half of Virginia where ICE is coming regardless, and possibly many areas have accumulating snows before changing to ICE. More of an icestorm in northwest NC and southwest VA on the east side of the Apps. Heavy snowstorm for central and western Maryland to central and eastern PA to very near Philadelphia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi JMA, UKMET.Canadian all big city heavier options, GFS, ecmwf west, Has to do with energy transfer timing and feedback No change from me. And yes I know we are not the big cities he speaks of... Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi Hint on ECMF/GFS is less than norm deepening once past 35 n. So much of model warmth is feedback.. prob overest of warm advection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 WxSouth about an hour ago European 12z run. It has the Low in the Deep South and maybe barely cold enough for snow from Nashville to Knoxville, Asheville Hickory Greensboro Roanoke and Richmond to DC then pulls just offshore, grazing the Northeast Cities.Speaking of the Saturday storm. One thing that stands out and goes against snow further south in southern TN to southern NC is lack of high pressure anywhere to the north. This will be a WET snow for areas that are barely cold enough to have snow. I'll have an update on what I'm thinking later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Robert not to hip on snow in NC the weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Robert not to hip on snow in NC the weekend! But if the GFS changes he will become more hip. I lost count of how many times I quoted you quoting Robert with the possible ice storm for Christmas going back and fourth. Cheer up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 But if the GFS changes he will become more hip. I lost count of how many times I quoted you quoting Robert with the possible ice storm for Christmas going back and fourth. Cheer up! Feel free to give your reasons as to why or why not you disagree with Robert. It seems you never have anything to say of substance when you become a critic. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Feel free to give your reasons as to why or why not you disagree with Robert. It seems you never have anything to say of substance when you become a critic. Just saying. I think Robert is on the money...just says that no cold hp equals problems for snow but seemed optimistic about the rest of the season. Urged patience. If you don't have a subscription, you are missing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think Robert is on the money...just says that no cold hp equals problems for snow but seemed optimistic about the rest of the season. Urged patience. If you don't have a subscription, you are missing out. What is his website? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Feel free to give your reasons as to why or why not you disagree with Robert. It seems you never have anything to say of substance when you become a critic. Just saying. Point I am trying to make to Frosty is that Robert will change his forecast if need be. Like any good met would. No reason to have highs and lows every other model suit with little snippets of info that lack clarity. Such as Example 1 and Example 2. Robert not to hip on snow in NC the weekend! Robert has a good write up on his site about the storm, says possible major Ice storm nw NC into Va. I actually agree with Robert based on what the models show now. Still some uncertainty. I don't understand where all the negativity is coming from with this being 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Point I am trying to make to Frosty is that Robert will change his forecast if need be. Like any good met would. No reason to have highs and lows every other model suit with little snippets of info that lack clarity. Such as Example 1 and Example 2. Robert not to hip on snow in NC the weekend! Robert has a good write up on his site about the storm, says possible major Ice storm nw NC into Va. I actually agree with Robert based on what the models show now. Still some uncertainty. I don't understand where all the negativity is coming from with this being 4 days out. Point is your a kid making comments on one of the top mets in the South East. Robert said on Sunday severe weather would occur with tornadoes in Alabama and Mississippi with blizzard conditions in the areas that now have warnings. So bottom line is he is pretty accurate. Most change with each model run he usually doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Point is your a kid making comments on one of the top mets in the South East. Robert said on Sunday severe weather would occur with tornadoes in Alabama and Mississippi with blizzard conditions in the areas that now have warnings. So bottom line is he is pretty accurate. Most change with each model run he usually doesn't I think your over thinking it...or just being overly protective. I never doubted his accuracy. I don't see a problem with Robert changing his forecast with each model because of how the pattern is currently. I am doubting Frosty's highs and lows based on what Robert says. There is no need for that and provides little to no discussion...sort of like spam that just kills the mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think your over thinking it...or just being overly protective. I never doubted his accuracy. I don't see a problem with Robert changing his forecast with each model because of how the pattern is currently. I am doubting Frosty's highs and lows based on what Robert says. There is no need for that and provides little to no discussion...sort of like spam that just kills the mood. When you become moderator you can delete my posts. Other than that you need not respond to my posts!!! I'm glad you know my feelings highs and lows? I'm just passing along info!! I also enjoy your expertise in this field.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think your over thinking it...or just being overly protective. I never doubted his accuracy. I don't see a problem with Robert changing his forecast with each model because of how the pattern is currently. I am doubting Frosty's highs and lows based on what Robert says. There is no need for that and provides little to no discussion...sort of like spam that just kills the mood. he can take care of himself he is 6 foot 6 and probably 250lbs. I was just replying to your comments. As for Frosty he has a legend don't make him mad he travels thru wilkes every week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 When you become moderator you can delete my posts. I'm just passing along info!! I also enjoy your expertise in this field.... They don't need to be deleted...maybe just moved. 1 line boner killing statements is not passing along info in this thread. Robert is better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 They don't need to be deleted...maybe just moved. 1 line boner killing statements is not passing along info in this thread. Robert is better than that. His is a paid site so I can't post all his thoughts... I really don't know why I'm wasting my time with you, but this is the last time I will respond to you.. Sorry about this folks, Don't know why this kid is trolling me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 His is a paid site so I can't post all his thoughts... I really don't know why I'm wasting my time with you, but this is the last time I will respond to you.. Sorry about this folks, Don't know why this kid is trolling me? well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Take it to the banter thread please. Anyways, the trends are encouraging. The fact that the models are showing the lp in the gulf is promising, we can see if it trends colder as the days go by, just get the SE the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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