wxmx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Textbook bottom up propagation forecasted, which should induce a deep weakening of the PV. This just reinforces the idea of a prolonged period of high latitude riding coming up. Day 0 (For yesterday's forecast) Day 10 (blue above 60N is good for high latitude ridging) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 If he's wrong about this winter, I shall call him JUDUS from this point forward. OT- If one accepts the concept of the 12 Apostles, Jesus had two named Simon (the one Jesus named 'Cephas" aka Simon Peter and the other "The Zealot") and three named Yehudah or Judah. One is better know by two names referring to him as a twin, Thomas Didymus, the other is St. Jude of Children's Hospital fame. In Spanish, San Judas Tadeo. On Topic, I need to read this so I can be conversant in this thread. http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/ao/ThompsonPapers/Baldwin_Thompson_QJ_2009.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Stratosphere coming along well. I really think winter is 10 days away from being 15 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Actually the split is by 192, and the warming is evident in the first 48 hrs.. which in addition to the recent warming could bring the Asian stratosphere into positive anomalies. Here's a loop of the 70mb warming across Asia in November. The first image is from Nov 9, which appeared to contain the coldest Nov anomalies when looking at the dailies. Additional warming is forecasted on the Euro over the next week. The vortex does look quite large and cold across the pole though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Does the QBO data count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 The stratospheric warming event has begun. 70hPa temps have taken sharp rise this week. The EP vectors have also shifted more poleward, this week. We'll see how long this lasts: Edit: From wxmx, this is a bottom-up event right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Yeah it appears we'll really get going over the next week or so. Stratospheric warming events have a tendency to occur earlier in the winter during -QBO, low solar years, and it looks like we may follow that here. A warming event in the next couple weeks would also coincide nicely with the late Dec-mid Jan period potentially being active in the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 The QBO looks similar to 1968-1969. Isotherm, you may very well be on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 This is a bottom-up event... the tropospheric PV is already disturbed (warming), and the stratospheric portion of the PV warming is just beginning. Sometimes there's a positive feedback, where the disrupted PV never fully regains it's strength because is more vulnerable to Rossby waves "attacks"...but so far the modeling is showing a rather quick rebuilding of the stratospheric PV. People are confusing this with a top-down event, where a sharp stratospheric warming sometimes translate to warming in the mid/upper levels of the troposphere, leading to ridging in the high latitudes...we already have ridging in the high latitudes, hence the very negative AO and NAO. This is also not a SSW (MMW), and is not forecasted to become one yet. The CONUS is warm because of the very deep NE Pac trough. Because the disrupted PV is more susceptible to stay weak, bottom-up events can lead to top-down events...but so far, as I mentioned before, this is not forecasted yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 This is a bottom-up event... the tropospheric PV is already disturbed (warming), and the stratospheric portion of the PV warming is just beginning. Sometimes there's a positive feedback, where the disrupted PV never fully regains it's strength because is more vulnerable to Rossby waves "attacks"...but so far the modeling is showing a rather quick rebuilding of the stratospheric PV. People are confusing this with a top-down event, where a sharp stratospheric warming sometimes translate to warming in the mid/upper levels of the troposphere, leading to ridging in the high latitudes...we already have ridging in the high latitudes, hence the very negative AO and NAO. This is also not a SSW (MMW), and is not forecasted to become one yet. The CONUS is warm because of the very deep NE Pac trough. Because the disrupted PV is more susceptible to stay weak, bottom-up events can lead to top-down events...but so far, as I mentioned before, this is not forecasted yet. This is evidenced by the fact that the 10mb/2m/1mb levels are still quite cold. The warming is propagating upward from 70mb to 50mb now, a very different progression than last year's event, which was top down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 This is evidenced by the fact that the 10mb/2m/1mb levels are still quite cold. The warming is propagating upward from 70mb to 50mb now, a very different progression than last year's event, which was top down. Where does that chart come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Where does that chart come from? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 This is evidenced by the fact that the 10mb/2m/1mb levels are still quite cold. The warming is propagating upward from 70mb to 50mb now, a very different progression than last year's event, which was top down. Right. Remember, the end result we are looking for is ridging in the mid/upper levels... in a bottom-up event, that's almost immediate, so the next thing we look for is that when it propagates up it keeps the whole depth of the PV disturbed, with a weakened nightly polar jet, which would be more vulnerable to planetary disruptive waves. So far this is not what is forecasted...by day 8 (7) the PV is trying to get it's act back. In the following figures you can see the propagation from the troposphere to the stratosphere of the current warming event. Blue shading indicate average easterly winds, associated to ridging. Yesterday analysis Day 4(3) and 6(5) ... It's going up. Almost whole column from 70-90N average easterly winds Day 8(7) ... Winds quickly return to westerly average winds By day 10 the PV is still weaker than what it was before the current event, so not everything is lost, plus forecast associated uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 BREAKING NEWS. MAJOR STRATOSPHERIC WARMING AT 70 HPA AS HIGH AS MID JANUARY 2012. Informed from Steve D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Yeah we knew that was going to happen. The problem is the PV is forecasted to recover quickly. My guess is that the stratosphere is just too cold and despite this bottom up disruption, the cold enables the PV to recover quickly. Someone correct me if I am wrong but the heightened latitude temperature gradient strengthens the PV. The only positive is it doesn't recover quite as strong as it was originally. Also we get a -AO for the next 10-15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 2, 2012 Share Posted December 2, 2012 Yeah we knew that was going to happen. The problem is the PV is forecasted to recover quickly. My guess is that the stratosphere is just too cold and despite this bottom up disruption, the cold enables the PV to recover quickly. Someone correct me if I am wrong but the heightened latitude temperature gradient strengthens the PV. The only positive is it doesn't recover quite as strong as it was originally. Also we get a -AO for the next 10-15 days. More importantly, even if we recover the stratospheric PV, it's unlikely that we'll see a switch to +AO, at least not until late Jan or Feb IMO. December AO has a high correlation (about 75%) to Jan AO, and for the DJF period as a whole (90%). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo1000 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Hopefully this pattern change that is coming in around the 10th of december for cold and wintry stormy weather is not a transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 More importantly, even if we recover the stratospheric PV, it's unlikely that we'll see a switch to +AO, at least not until late Jan or Feb IMO. December AO has a high correlation (about 75%) to Jan AO, and for the DJF period as a whole (90%). Yes but in many of those instances where the -AO continued the PV was more fully disrupted. The fact that it is forecasted to recover suggests we may fall in those 25% of cases where the Dec AO is negative but the Jan AO is positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 3, 2012 Share Posted December 3, 2012 Yes but in many of those instances where the -AO continued the PV was more fully disrupted. The fact that it is forecasted to recover suggests we may fall in those 25% of cases where the Dec AO is negative but the Jan AO is positive. Maybe. If the ECM submits to the GFS, then there should be a solid signal of a continuing -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 5, 2012 Share Posted December 5, 2012 The latest Euro PV forecasts don't seem to regenerate it quite as much. It's a little elongated and weaker with a lot of warmth over Asia through the forecast period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 Looks like another PV split by D10, certainly quite weak and elongated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgolf Posted December 8, 2012 Share Posted December 8, 2012 Hello skierinvermont, im kevin from around memphis,tn. I gotta question for you. Ive been reading about the stratospheric warming being advertised, but not real strong yet! What do we need to watch for to signal a good pv split that makes sense to you or perhaps a destroying of the pv alotgether? It seems like these splits or attempts havent quite came together yet. So far, the most extreme cold has been confined to other side of the globe. Skier, honestly, will it more than likely be in january before we really disturb the pv over the artic and maybe get some significant cold pattern to perhaps develop over the central and eastern US? Anyone else that wants to chime in, feel free to do so. One more thing: if the mjo comes out like models are hinting, when would it possibly effect the pattern? We havent yet had a decent mjo and i feel that may get things rocking somewhat. Thanks kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 You can see the stratospheric warming easily on this zonal wind anomaly plot, westerly anomalies became easterly anomalies. Not a complete reversal in the mean though. Since we had this warming so early that could mean the polar vortex will be colder and stronger than normal this winter since it will have plenty of time to re-strengthen. Or another warming could occur and kill it again, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chionomaniac Posted December 13, 2012 Share Posted December 13, 2012 No mention of the dramatic increase forecast in 10 hpa temperatures between days 10 and 16 and possible New Year SSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 No mention of the dramatic increase forecast in 10 hpa temperatures between days 10 and 16 and possible New Year SSW? GFS still holding onto that look just before truncation hr192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro and GFS seem to have something Brewing by the Day 10 Time frame. The PV is not split but the development of the ridge over Alaska looks encouraging. Update GFS 348: Because it's awesome not correct. Take that PV, who's king now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Medium range (10+ days) looks quite interesting, with a potential SSW and a displacement/crushing of the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Polar vortex becoming much colder/stronger than average in the middle to upper stratosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Medium range (10+ days) looks quite interesting, with a potential SSW and a displacement/crushing of the PV. Definately a very interesting and different look than what we have been seeing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 AO does not look good for the the 1st half of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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