okie333 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 With the latest GFS run showing a near-total stratospheric vortex split, I thought I'd start this thread. Here are some resources for monitoring the stratosphere (will add upon request): GFS forecasts ECMWF forecasts Here is the split on the 00Z GFS in pictures (various levels and hours): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 What would a stratospheric vortex split imply if it verified? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 What would a stratospheric vortex split imply if it verified? -AO for one... not sure about other implications. But that always seems to be a good start if you like cold and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 -AO for one... not sure about other implications. But that always seems to be a good start if you like cold and snow. Or cold and dry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Or cold and dry... Or suppression, which can be good for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 either way, its not like last winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted November 21, 2012 Author Share Posted November 21, 2012 Gigantic split on latest 00Z GFS, and pre-truncation too... After the truncation it only gets more dramatic: All the way up to 3 mb: Separate top-down warming starting later on: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Warming of the Asian stratosphere is already evident, although it remains slightly cold overall. It looks like some major warming is forecasted. Anybody know what is causing this? Mountain torque? Ozone? HM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 It is the GFS 300+ btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 It is the GFS 300+ btw. Actually the split is by 192, and the warming is evident in the first 48 hrs.. which in addition to the recent warming could bring the Asian stratosphere into positive anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Warming of the Asian stratosphere is already evident, although it remains slightly cold overall. It looks like some major warming is forecasted. Anybody know what is causing this? Mountain torque? Ozone? HM? Sudden stratospheric warmings (what some are calling a vortex split here) are forced by large amplitude planetary scale Rossby waves propagating from the lower troposphere to the stratosphere, where they are absorbed and decelerate the mean westerly flow, sometimes to the point that the flow reverses and you end up splitting the stratospheric polar vortex. These large amplitude planetary scale Rossby waves generally arise from mountain range forcing or the difference between land and ocean (like the east coast for example, where you get persistent ridging over the warm ocean and persistent troughing over land so you end up with a large amplitude). Sudden stratospheric warmings are rare to non-existent in the southern hemisphere during winter since there aren't any significant meridonal land/ocean boundaries or mountain ranges near the polar vortex, and thus Rossby waves don't have a big enough amplitude to break the polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Yeah - that's the future, but let's talk about what we've seen so far the month of November, and that's a very cold stratosphere from 1mb down through 70mb. According to the correlations, this would argue for a +AO Dec (based upon only the stratosphere). Not saying that'll happen, but the stratosphere right now is one indicator that's not conducive to sustained blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Yeah - that's the future, but let's talk about what we've seen so far the month of November, and that's a very cold stratosphere from 1mb down through 70mb. According to the correlations, this would argue for a +AO Dec (based upon only the stratosphere). Not saying that'll happen, but the stratosphere right now is one indicator that's not conducive to sustained blocking. Jeeze, it's worse than last year, if only slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Yeah - that's the future, but let's talk about what we've seen so far the month of November, and that's a very cold stratosphere from 1mb down through 70mb. According to the correlations, this would argue for a +AO Dec (based upon only the stratosphere). Not saying that'll happen, but the stratosphere right now is one indicator that's not conducive to sustained blocking. I think we're at a point though where we have to combine those observations with the actual patterns we are seeing. And it's clear that this fall has shown a much greater tendency towards high latitude blocking than last fall, and there is often a correlation between blocky falls and the following winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The "top-down" processes are even more favorable for a cold stratosphere this winter compared to last. However, the bottom-up processes are way different and that's why we're going to see a wave 2 response and possible (probable?) vortex split next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The "top-down" processes are even more favorable for a cold stratosphere this winter compared to last. However, the bottom-up processes are way different and that's why we're going to see a wave 2 response and possible (probable?) vortex split next week. while I believe the stratsophere sometimes leads the AO phase. The correlation is only in the .40 to .50 range which when squared says way more of the variance is explained by other factors than merely the stratosphere. If a warming event takes place and the ep flux is pointed in the right direction, then the correlation is probably much higher but the bottom up approach certainly works at time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The maps on this page are great for looking at the current state of the stratosphere: http://www.cpc.ncep....ere/strat-trop/ There is indeed a cold anomaly this year, corresponding to higher zonal winds in the polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Warming of the Asian stratosphere is already evident, although it remains slightly cold overall. It looks like some major warming is forecasted. Anybody know what is causing this? Mountain torque? Ozone? HM? Spike in the GLAAM due mainly to North American sourced mountain torque. Currently traversing phase 5 of the GLAAM phase diagram and headed for some of the highest AAM anomalies in quite some time. This usually translates to a period of cold weather for the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS...which is forecasted. This might spill unto the stratosphere and allow for a period of high latitude ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Warming of the Asian stratosphere is already evident, although it remains slightly cold overall. It looks like some major warming is forecasted. Anybody know what is causing this? Mountain torque? Ozone? HM? Judah Cohen. Judah Cohen is causing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Judah Cohen. Judah Cohen is causing this. If he's wrong about this winter, I shall call him JUDUS from this point forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Winds in the 30-50mb zone are progged to weaken some as we head into the beginning of December, possibly owing to the wave 2 stuff going on right now. A nice split also progged at 70mb, although EP flux while less equatorial...still point in that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Winds in the 30-50mb zone are progged to weaken some as we head into the beginning of December, possibly owing to the wave 2 stuff going on right now. A nice split also progged at 70mb, although EP flux while less equatorial...still point in that direction. Stratospheric EP flux is probably still equatorial, but that's to be expected since it's a bottom-up event unraveling...tropospheric EP flux is probably averaging into the poleward end of things lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 There's been a modest spike in 70mb temps, between 80N and 90N: http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t90n_70_2012_merra.pdf http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t80n_70_2012_merra.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Stratospheric EP flux is probably still equatorial, but that's to be expected since it's a bottom-up event unraveling...tropospheric EP flux is probably averaging into the poleward end of things lately. Those have looked better as of late. There are still some mixed signals, but it does appear we are trying to at least give it a good punch to the gut from the bottom up. I noticed the euro ensembles swing around some very warm anomalies at 50mb right over the north pole and practically split the vortex into two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 From 11/22 12z Euro Stratophere forecasts (latest available at this time), there is a wave 2 that reaches over 650 m' at days 9-10....also, looking at 70mb, the vortex split and warming in Russia (particularly E Russia) continue to be more pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suezwxman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 North Atlantic blocking will occur next week bringing below average temps first to western Europe (UK, western France, Spain) then the cold will spread east into central and eastern Europe during the first week of DEC. Could even have some wintery weather across the UK and parts of northern Europe during the upcoming cold snap... it's likely the North Atlantic remains blocked into the second week of DEC... the forecast of the AO index continues to plunge in the coming days as well...could be lots of interesting weather upcoming across the northern hemisphere as the tropospheric polar vortex (jet stream) weakens... it would also appear we're starting the onset of stratospheric warming and a disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex, however, it's also likely the impacts of a SSW event won't be felt at the surface for several weeks down the road... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Complete stratospheric vortex split by D7 look at the massive warm anomalies at 70mb over Asia. If anything like this comes to fruition, it bodes extremely well for the first two months of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Does anyone know of other years where a comparable stratospheric warming/split occurred around this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Complete stratospheric vortex split by D7 look at the massive warm anomalies at 70mb over Asia. If anything like this comes to fruition, it bodes extremely well for the first two months of winter. I tried to tell you to have faith in Cohen and the SAI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 You mean the final 2 months of winter. The lag is apparent. No, the first 2 months. The lag is only a couple weeks which takes us to Dec 7, and the AO is already negative anyways and forecasted to remain negative. There's very little correlation between the late November stratosphere and the February AO. The vortex often reestablishes before then. The correlation is to Dec and Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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