NCSNOW Posted November 25, 2012 Share Posted November 25, 2012 Since all eyes are on the pacific now, here is the 12z comparing all models. AO and NAO stay in the negative throughout, Goofy spikes the PNA in about 10+ days. looks like 12/5 going forward before we can even entertain a SE conducive pattern flip. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zlinegraphs.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 CFS is a torch for December, looks cold for Jan and than warm for Feb. It was pretty good last year. The Pacific is going to ruin December, lets hope it doesn't kill Jan too. It's a shame too, the AO/NAO look like they are going to cooperate this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Since all eyes are on the pacific now, here is the 12z comparing all models. AO and NAO stay in the negative throughout, Goofy spikes the PNA in about 10+ days. looks like 12/5 going forward before we can even entertain a SE conducive pattern flip. http://raleighwx.ame...linegraphs.html Notice that the Euro is neutral-bad. The GFS is the outlier here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 CFS is a torch for December, looks cold for Jan and than warm for Feb. It was pretty good last year. The Pacific is going to ruin December, lets hope it doesn't kill Jan too. It's a shame too, the AO/NAO look like they are going to cooperate this winter. The CFS showed a torch for November as well, that's obviously not what happened. Although it could be right this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Notice that the Euro is neutral-bad. The GFS is the outlier here. EPO is positive too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 CFS is a torch for December, looks cold for Jan and than warm for Feb. It was pretty good last year. The Pacific is going to ruin December, lets hope it doesn't kill Jan too. It's a shame too, the AO/NAO look like they are going to cooperate this winter. Um, it's not December yet. We cannot justify writing off the entire month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 26, 2012 Author Share Posted November 26, 2012 CFS playing up a La Nina-ish temp spread in their forecasts. Their low skill areas are widespread beyond Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 The CFS showed a torch for November as well, that's obviously not what happened. Although it could be right this time. Don posted this in the main forum, it did miss the SE being cooler, but all in all not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Um, it's not December yet. We cannot justify writing off the entire month. I am not writing off December, although from everything I read I am betting it's warmer than people are expecting. It's not just the CFS showing warmth, we need a -EPO/+PNA, I know people say we can get cold without this, hopefully they are right. It almost never snows in December in central NC so I just hope the pattern is good in Jan, as the CFS is currently showing, the -NAO/-AO is very encouraging, so actually I am relatively positive about this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 CFS playing up a La Nina-ish temp spread in their forecasts. Their low skill areas are widespread beyond Dec. I saw that...not really encouraging, if that dramatic of cooling takes place that would not be good. Hopefully it's wrong. Curious on why CFS shows January so cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 26, 2012 Author Share Posted November 26, 2012 I saw that...not really encouraging, if that dramatic of cooling takes place that would not be good. Hopefully it's wrong. Curious on why CFS shows January so cold. Pretty much explains their temp and precip maps... almost textbook La Nina. But the ENSO forecast I posted is only between neutral and -0.5. It's still quite a sharp drop IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Don posted this in the main forum, it did miss the SE being cooler, but all in all not bad. Not just the southeast, the entire eastern seaboard is below normal all the way back to parts of the Ohio and Tenn valleys. I would call that a pretty dramatic bust everywhere east of the Mississippi River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 CFS playing up a La Nina-ish temp spread in their forecasts. Their low skill areas are widespread beyond Dec. Winter will be much like last winter if that verifies. Looks iffy to me with that sharp drop, but would explain the pattern developing over Alaska. Also, that spells trouble for next summer...another hot summer on tap - especially early. Like groundhog day. How many triple dip Ninas have we had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 It isway to early to right off any month. Might be some need for caution but look the Average for Asheville in the mountains is still 55 degrees. It is only November 25 and the models have been swinging one way then the other. Lets get into the middle of December and see how the pattern has evolved. Yes we will have some warm ups and above average temps but we usually do not start seeing real good chances of snow until the middle to the end of December even in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 CFS is a torch for December, looks cold for Jan and than warm for Feb. It was pretty good last year. The Pacific is going to ruin December, lets hope it doesn't kill Jan too. It's a shame too, the AO/NAO look like they are going to cooperate this winter. According to the map JB posted the December torch turns into a block of ice come Dec 20th https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/272900455569432576/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 26, 2012 Author Share Posted November 26, 2012 Well, a mid Dec pattern change (a favorable one for us, obviously) would be ideal I suppose for climatology's sake. I seriously doubt that Nino 3.4 is going to go fully neg during DJF. This dry pattern that's been in place for the past several weeks needs to break soon, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 26, 2012 Author Share Posted November 26, 2012 0z giving the OV weenies something to oogle over tonight.. triple stream phase at 336: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Well at about hour 288 on the 00z gfs you see what we are looking for trough setting up over the Eastern two thirds of the country and a ridge developing right were we want it to. It's long range but subtle signs of a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Just beat me to it Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 26, 2012 Author Share Posted November 26, 2012 The general point to take away is the emergence of the western ridge.. a +PNA signal. It's one item that's required for our region unless the PV is sitting over the NE or SE Canada to get cold and/or frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 26, 2012 Author Share Posted November 26, 2012 That big storm, as you'd assume, forms the new 50/50 low (or even a PV) and begins pumping the ridge back into Greenland. All starts with the return of the +PNA. Were it not for the big -EPO trough off the west coast right now, we'd be set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Ya Wow just what we need. We shall see if there are more signs that point to this being a real pattern change or just a teaser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 26, 2012 Author Share Posted November 26, 2012 Yes, the models have teased us already with a cold pattern beginning for early Dec with an oversized -NAO but that's been scaled back as the -EPO in the Pacific appears to be winning out for the next week or so. It does appear to break soon after but we will see, as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Off the Y Axis? @RyanMaue: Had to change y-axis to -6 for AO. GFS 12z: http://pic.twitter.com/aQpzkhfB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 And ECMWF.... @RyanMaue: Extended range ECMWF ensemble mean shows major early-December warmth on the way for Lower-48. http://pic.twitter.com/Wi0P12xj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 And ECMWF.... @RyanMaue: Extended range ECMWF ensemble mean shows major early-December warmth on the way for Lower-48. http://pic.twitter.com/Wi0P12xj Yep 12z ens mean at 204hr, whatever that's worth...looks like Maue thinks it's worth quite a bit with the "on the way" wording...I'll be up for the 0z op run but not because I really care, but because I'm studying for a final tomorrow so why not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 That big storm, as you'd assume, forms the new 50/50 low (or even a PV) and begins pumping the ridge back into Greenland. All starts with the return of the +PNA. Were it not for the big -EPO trough off the west coast right now, we'd be set. Wow, Do you mean +EPO trough off west coast instead of -EPO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 And ECMWF.... @RyanMaue: Extended range ECMWF ensemble mean shows major early-December warmth on the way for Lower-48. http://pic.twitter.com/Wi0P12xj LOL...we are in the 70's starting next Sun/Mon per the Euro and it lasts through the run. Major torch to start December. Need to get the sprinklers and lawn mowers out again. Oh yeah and we are bone dry, quite a dry stretch we are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Thoughts for the mountains from Raysweather.com Averyweather.com: "No really cold shots of air are expected through the first week of December, as the prevailing weather pattern will be dominated by milder air of Pacific origins" Grrr from the ski slopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 26, 2012 Author Share Posted November 26, 2012 Wow, Do you mean +EPO trough off west coast instead of -EPO? Sorry, yes. +EPO instead of -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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