A change to a wintry pattern emerging after November?

[metalicwx366]

LOL^^^

I guess no one should buy into the winter pattern change unless widremann does. People were saying Late Nov-Early Dec was the favorable time frame. Now apparently it has become late Dec.

[WidreMann]

Widremann is the anti JB. Being a pessimist makes him right a lot of the time.

I'm a realist. I know what winter weather brings in the south, and it's not much. On these forums, you'd think that we should average 40 inches of snow a year based on the discussion and excitement surrounding the phantom threats the models show. In reality, outside of the mountains, most places in the SE average between 2 and 15 inches of snow a year, and that's just an average, meaning that some years, it's pretty low or there's no snow at all and then every now and then you get a year with above average snow.

[GaWx]

All you have to do in the SE is wake up every day and say "it's not going to snow today" and you'll be right 99% of the time.

Literally, half of all KATL winters yield only ~2% or less of total wintry precip. to total liquid equiv. precip. for DJFM. The ratio is ~~0.40" wintry liquid equiv. to 18" total. If people would realize this, they'd probably be more patient, hope for the best, and just accept it if the winter yields very little to nothing because we live in north GA. Also, I like to look at the bright side: having a small % makes one enjoy what we get that much more!

If the normal # of hours of falling precip. in a DJFM is, say, 300 hours for KATL, one might think that this would translate to roughly 6 hours of falling pure wintry precip. for a median winter. In reality, my guess would be that it is something a good bit higher...perhaps close to 12 hours because wintry precip. hourly rates of fall tend to be lower than nonwintry. So, I'd very roughly guess that a median winter at the ATL airport (south of town) gives 12 hours of either ZR or accumulating S/IP. Furthermore, there are additional hours of S/IP that don't stick. Also, there are periods of mixed rain and S/IP.

Northern ATL burbs are probably closer to 3%. RDU seems to be near a more impressive 5%.

[WidreMann]

All you have to do in the SE is wake up every day and say "it's not going to snow today" and you'll be right 99% of the time.

You can really only look at potential patterns or individual threats in two ways: Either try to find ways it can all come together, or try to find ways it can all fall apart. Most of the time, it doesn't all come together, so if you constantly take the approach of pessimism (assuming you want cold and snow), you'll generally be right.

On the other hand, it's fun to speculate and watch for clues/signals that a more favorable Winter situation is on the horizon. Even knowing it may not work out or work out immediately, it's still fun to discuss the potential. I think that's how most weather enthusiasts operate.

Either way, it's only November 24, and it actually feels like Fall (or today, even Winter), so at this point I'm not sure if there's really anything concrete to be overly delighted or worried about. Just enjoy the Fall and enjoy watching the pieces fall into place.

I don't just say "no" all the time and end up right 99% of the time. There's no fun in that and that's not something I'd be proud of anyway. I look for signals in the model trends that are unfavorable, when compared to previous failed events. I admit that some of it is gut, but it is based on my observations after watching many years' worth of storms and threats, only a few of which ever materialized, either here or elsewhere in the SE.

[Cold Rain]

I don't just say "no" all the time and end up right 99% of the time. There's no fun in that and that's not something I'd be proud of anyway. I look for signals in the model trends that are unfavorable, when compared to previous failed events. I admit that some of it is gut, but it is based on my observations after watching many years' worth of storms and threats, only a few of which ever materialized, either here or elsewhere in the SE.

I was responding to Lookout who said you were right more often than wrong, which I point out is because you take the more statistically favorable approach, which also happens to be the more pessimistic approach, which unfortunately turns out more often than not to be on the side of the most realistic outcome. I'm not faulting your methodology. In fact, I know you know what you're talking about and know that whether you actually write it down or not, you are looking for and finding signals which reject cold and snow, while the majority of others, myself included, look for signals which support cold and snow. More often than not, you'll end up being right and we'll be wrong, whether you use actual meteorology or not.

We live in the SE, and we're usually not going to stay cold and get lots and lots of snow. The bottom line is, whatever the reason, if you continuously predict that it's not going to snow and stay cold in the SE, you're going to be right more often than not, regardless of how you came to that conclusion. That's all I was saying.

[valkhorn]

I was responding to Lookout who said you were right more often than wrong, which I point out is because you take the more statistically favorable approach, which also happens to be the more pessimistic approach, which unfortunately turns out more often than not to be on the side of the most realistic outcome. I'm not faulting your methodology. In fact, I know you know what you're talking about and know that whether you actually write it down or not, you are looking for and finding signals which reject cold and snow, while the majority of others, myself included, look for signals which support cold and snow. More often than not, you'll end up being right and we'll be wrong, whether you use actual meteorology or not.

We live in the SE, and we're usually not going to stay cold and get lots and lots of snow. The bottom line is, whatever the reason, if you continuously predict that it's not going to snow and stay cold in the SE, you're going to be right more often than not, regardless of how you came to that conclusion. That's all I was saying.

It's the astrology approach. Be non specific enough and it applies to everyone. The trouble is with weather forecasting you earn more respect for going out on a limb and being right than playing it safe and sticking to climatology. Anyone can stick to climatology and play the odds. It requires no skill. It does require skill to call something like Sandy 7 days out before there is model consensus.

[valkhorn]

I don't just say "no" all the time and end up right 99% of the time. There's no fun in that and that's not something I'd be proud of anyway. I look for signals in the model trends that are unfavorable, when compared to previous failed events. I admit that some of it is gut, but it is based on my observations after watching many years' worth of storms and threats, only a few of which ever materialized, either here or elsewhere in the SE.

Then post your reasoning instead of a short five word post which you'll later claim wasn't even a prediction. People here who put out forecasts and stick their neck out post a lot of data to back themselves up, and post a lot to explain their reasoning. Sure some have been wrong, but at least they explained themselves and weren't trying to get a rise out of people.

You have a bad habit of claiming you don't care about a weather forum, then posting a little short blurb which offers nothing to the discussion, then you put a negative spin on it, as if to get as much attention as possible.

Why don't you do this. Pick a random day. Go outside. Enjoy the weather - even if it's not weather you like. Or, if you hate the weather where you are at, then move. Life is too short to do nothing but complain about it.

[buckeyefan1]

Then post your reasoning instead of a short five word post which you'll later claim wasn't even a prediction. People here who put out forecasts and stick their neck out post a lot of data to back themselves up, and post a lot to explain their reasoning. Sure some have been wrong, but at least they explained themselves and weren't trying to get a rise out of people.

You have a bad habit of claiming you don't care about a weather forum, then posting a little short blurb which offers nothing to the discussion, then you put a negative spin on it, as if to get as much attention as possible.

Why don't you do this. Pick a random day. Go outside. Enjoy the weather - even if it's not weather you like. Or, if you hate the weather where you are at, then move. Life is too short to do nothing but complain about it.

Take this advice If you want to discuss this any further, take it to the banter thread

[mackerel_sky]

I think we should change this topic to after Christmas pattern change.When we keep looking torwards the middle of Dec.,Ann when we get there,it'll be coming the first of Jan.!

[Wow]

Alright, enough complaining about Widremann being too logicial and sensible about our climatology. Now onto something more important, like GFS 384 hr fantasy storms! They're back! Yay!

[packbacker]

Alright, enough complaining about Widremann being too logicial and sensible about our climatology. Now onto something more important, like GFS 384 hr fantasy storms! They're back! Yay!

And on the GEFS the heights start rising on the west coast around day 11 and blocking seems to be holding...

[Wow]

On a more serious note, the emergence of a solid +PNA will be of great importance to break this western trough poised to set up over the next week.

[WidreMann]

Then post your reasoning instead of a short five word post which you'll later claim wasn't even a prediction. People here who put out forecasts and stick their neck out post a lot of data to back themselves up, and post a lot to explain their reasoning. Sure some have been wrong, but at least they explained themselves and weren't trying to get a rise out of people.

You have a bad habit of claiming you don't care about a weather forum, then posting a little short blurb which offers nothing to the discussion, then you put a negative spin on it, as if to get as much attention as possible.

Why don't you do this. Pick a random day. Go outside. Enjoy the weather - even if it's not weather you like. Or, if you hate the weather where you are at, then move. Life is too short to do nothing but complain about it.

I used to write up longer posts, but frankly, I don't care enough to do it any more.

[Bozart]

I used to write up longer posts, but frankly, I don't care enough to do it any more.

Still, a WidreMann treatise would be nice on how a colder pattern might be in the offing once we descend into, you know, DECEMBER.

It could bookend another essay, six months from now, on how a shift to more summery weather should be expected following Memorial Day.

We might be onto a whole new genre here.

[WidreMann]

Still, a WidreMann treatise would be nice on how a colder pattern might be in the offing once we descend into, you know, DECEMBER.

It could bookend another essay, six months from now, on how a shift to more summery weather should be expected following Memorial Day.

We might be onto a whole new genre here.

You've been here long enough to know that I would never call for a cold pattern in any month of the year.

[metalicwx366]

I think we should change this topic to after Christmas pattern change.When we keep looking torwards the middle of Dec.,Ann when we get there,it'll be coming the first of Jan.!

This!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Funny,but true lol.

[Met1985]

On a more serious note, the emergence of a solid +PNA will be of great importance to break this western trough poised to set up over the next week.

this is exactly what we need to happen. nice

[WidreMann]

On the plus side, the talk in the stratosphere thread in the main forum is encouraging.

[Wow]

On the plus side, the talk in the stratosphere thread in the main forum is encouraging.

It is. Last winter, the only frozen precipitation I witnessed was a quick snow shower and flurries amounting up to a light dusting which promptly melted as the day progressed. I guess I should consider myself lucky given most of the SE crew saw absolutely nothing.

[WidreMann]

It is. Last winter, the only frozen precipitation I witnessed was a quick snow shower and flurries amounting up to a light dusting which promptly melted as the day progressed. I guess I should consider myself lucky given most of the SE crew saw absolutely nothing.

Where I was, we got a quick quarter inch or so. Unfortunately, for me, most of the time was spent waiting to get picked up by a cab after I had a flat tire and a dead car battery. Just as well, I suppose, since it wasn't that much and almost completely melted overnight.

[Isopycnic]

Where I was, we got a quick quarter inch or so. Unfortunately, for me, most of the time was spent waiting to get picked up by a cab after I had a flat tire and a dead car battery. Just as well, I suppose, since it wasn't that much and almost completely melted overnight.

I officially has 0.9" just north of your location.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

It is. Last winter, the only frozen precipitation I witnessed was a quick snow shower and flurries amounting up to a light dusting which promptly melted as the day progressed. I guess I should consider myself lucky given most of the SE crew saw absolutely nothing.

I remember one changeover event at the end of a storm. Just enough to whiten the ground (about 1/2 inch) and then it was over. There were also a couple of flurry events that did not produce measurable snow. It was a miserable winter.

[WidreMann]

I officially has 0.9" just north of your location.

I could tell the difference just in Chapel Hill. My car situation was at I-40 and Martin Luther King Blvd, pretty much at the intersection with Whitfield Road. I had driven up that way in the first place to see if there had been a changeover, which indeed there was around the time I got there and hit the median. The sleet quickly changed to snow and fell fast enough (relatively speaking) to whiten the ground and the road after about 30 or 45 minutes. On the way home, there was certainly a covering of snow further south, but it wasn't as much as what I had seen on the north side of town. Not a great difference, of course, given that the distances involved were less than 10 miles, but still notable.

[chapelhillwx]

I could tell the difference just in Chapel Hill. My car situation was at I-40 and Martin Luther King Blvd, pretty much at the intersection with Whitfield Road. I had driven up that way in the first place to see if there had been a changeover, which indeed there was around the time I got there and hit the median. The sleet quickly changed to snow and fell fast enough (relatively speaking) to whiten the ground and the road after about 30 or 45 minutes. On the way home, there was certainly a covering of snow further south, but it wasn't as much as what I had seen on the north side of town. Not a great difference, of course, given that the distances involved were less than 10 miles, but still notable.

My dad lives around Whitfield and Sunrise Ln... we had nearly an inch too.

[norcarolinian]

it was Presidents Day weekend ... Sunday night into Monday ... got 2.2 inches here nw of GSO ... Guilford Co schools were closed on the holiday ...

[valkhorn]

Last winter, the mst I saw was on Mt Leconte with a good 8 inches of powder. This season, I've already seen 30 plus inches on the AT. I'd say hings are looking up.

[Cold Rain]

Good morning 6Z GFS.

[Isopycnic]

My dad lives around Whitfield and Sunrise Ln... we had nearly an inch too.

I can see the glow of Home Depot off of NC86...

[dsaur]

Literally, half of all KATL winters yield only ~2% or less of total wintry precip. to total liquid equiv. precip. for DJFM. The ratio is ~~0.40" wintry liquid equiv. to 18" total. If people would realize this, they'd probably be more patient, hope for the best, and just accept it if the winter yields very little to nothing because we live in north GA. Also, I like to look at the bright side: having a small % makes one enjoy what we get that much more!

If the normal # of hours of falling precip. in a DJFM is, say, 300 hours for KATL, one might think that this would translate to roughly 6 hours of falling pure wintry precip. for a median winter. In reality, my guess would be that it is something a good bit higher...perhaps close to 12 hours because wintry precip. hourly rates of fall tend to be lower than nonwintry. So, I'd very roughly guess that a median winter at the ATL airport (south of town) gives 12 hours of either ZR or accumulating S/IP. Furthermore, there are additional hours of S/IP that don't stick. Also, there are periods of mixed rain and S/IP.

Northern ATL burbs are probably closer to 3%. RDU seems to be near a more impressive 5%.

And thus my contention that a wetter pattern is more important than a colder pattern around here, lol. 33 and rain will yield more chances for snow, than 23 and sunny, if a hitch works into the giddy up. And way more rain produces way more snow, if timing occurs, but way more sun produces squat, no matter how cold it is T

[NCSNOW]

November at PTI(Greensboro). -3.9 temp departure is pretty impressive. I'll take that allday long D,J,F. Whats more concering is the precip departure. I beleive the story/pattern this winter is gonna be colder than normal and drier than normal just like we've been expierncing this fall.

NOVEMBER:

[TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA]

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 47.2 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 0.20

DPTR FM NORMAL: -3.9 DPTR FM NORMAL: -2.29

OCTOBER:

[TEMPERATURE DATA] [PRECIPITATION DATA]

AVERAGE MONTHLY: 58.9 TOTAL FOR MONTH: 2.44

DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.6 DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.69