A change to a wintry pattern emerging after November?

[Cold Rain]

I'll see your 0Z and raise you a 6Z 360 with a bonus NAO chart:

[WidreMann]

The Euro looks awful. The GFS better be right, but we've heard that before...

[Carvers Gap]

My concerns I stated a week or so ago remain the same. The models have picked up on something in terms of not driving the cold air southeast. The pattern should be a slam dunk....but it is not. It could be that the cold air is playing havoc with the models which is not uncommon. Let's hope we don't waist true artic air by bottling it up in Canada.

[GaWx]

To put it simply, it looks to me like the -PDO (not too good Pacific), which tends to promote a -PNA, is battling the -NAO, and the -PDO is winning per the 12Z GFS fwiw, which means a lack of SE US cold. Without the weak Nino to help battle the -PDO (since Ninos tend to promote a +PNA and since they may also be able to feedback some against a -PDO), the -PDO wins for now. Regardless, it is very early...a very long way to go!

Edit: This is regarding the 6-15 day period.

[SoCoWx]

This is all highly comical. We do all realize that the average temperatures throughout the SE during this time of year are still in the 60's, right?

[Cold Rain]

This is all highly comical. We do all realize that the average temperatures throughout the SE during this time of year are still in the 60's, right?

Because what we all appear to be rooting for is a perfect pattern to lock in immediately (which would likely break down by mid-Dec) so we can have below normal temperatures now, giving us cold rain and 45F. I'm all for being excited over cold and good patterns and stuff, but worrying too much at this point is silly.

[GaWx]

This is all highly comical. We do all realize that the average temperatures throughout the SE during this time of year are still in the 60's, right?

Really? I thought that the average high in Atlanta was in the 50's in early Dec. (the forecast period). Hmmmm. I'll need to recheck the record book.

Regardless, I'm personally talking about anomalies not absolutes and only within the 6-15 day period. We have a very long way to go!

[packbacker]

Because what we all appear to be rooting for is a perfect pattern to lock in immediately (which would likely break down by mid-Dec) so we can have below normal temperatures now, giving us cold rain and 45F. I'm all for being excited over cold and good patterns and stuff, but worrying too much at this point is silly.

I don't think the worry is the temp today or next week but the struggle we are going to have to obtain a favorable Pacific this winter. It makes it that much tougher for winter events in the SE. The good news is it looks we will have a favorable -AO/-NAO.

[WilkesboroDude]

I don't start worrying until after Christmas...no need to que the 2013/2014 Winter Outlook thread just yet.

[packbacker]

From RaleighWx on twitter...

@RaleighWx: A statistical tool i use to forecast the DJF NAO sign and has been accurate 76% of the time, looks like it is going to go for -NAO for DJF.

[Cold Rain]

I don't think the worry is the temp today or next week but the struggle we are going to have to obtain a favorable Pacific this winter. It makes it that much tougher for winter events in the SE. The good news is it looks we will have a favorable -AO/-NAO.

I agree about the Pacific, but there should be periods of a favorable Pacific this winter. I am not concerned about having a wall to wall great Pacific. In fact, that's unlikely. In fact, it seems like most years lately, it's not all that favorable, which appears to be a function of the -PDO which operates on a 30 year cycle. So if we're going to spend a lot of time worrying about that, then we're going to spend a LOT of time worrying about it. The -NAO is more important for us, and if the state of that is favorable for the bulk of the winter, then we will be just fine when all is said and done.

[NCsandhills]

Really? I thought that the average high in Atlanta was in the 50's in early Dec. (the forecast period). Hmmmm. I'll need to recheck the record book.

Regardless, I'm personally talking about anomalies not absolutes.

it is. end of november is hits 59 as an avg. avg for today is 61. for atlanta. charlotte is a tad cooler, avg for today is is 60, but my dec 3 it's 56. memphis avg for today is also 60, but by dec 3 drops to 55. little rock is the coolest yet, avg is 59 today and 54 by dec 3. so yes i agree a tad silly to get all worked up about snow this early and be disappointed when it doesnt happen, but ehhh what do i know im an amateur lol.

[Carvers Gap]

This is all highly comical. We do all realize that the average temperatures throughout the SE during this time of year are still in the 60's, right?

VH. Here is the concern. The cold air is on this side of the hemisphere for the next few weeks. It is very early to be hoping for something, but most of us know if we don't cash in...it will be gone during the heart of winter. Probably will have to wait for the pattern to reload, looking at mid-late Jan at best. I really don't get too bent out of shape when looking at patterns this far out - after all it is something completely put of our control. However, right now it looks like a receiver being wide open on a 90 yard post pattern and then drops the ball. Perfect set-up may not produce. That said, I don't see a long term torch. Just normal cool winter temps and a very dry pattern. Like was said earlier, a lack of a weak Niño is probably the culprit.

[Carvers Gap]

And I will add, I am not convinced this pattern won't produce. The NAO and AO are extremely favorable. If I didn't know the Pacific was so terrible, I'd say something was due any time. The pattern just looks like it wants to bottle the cold up on the lee side of the northern Rockies. But cold air, of the nature building in Canada, is notorious for causing model havoc. The Euro likes to leave energy in the southwest and the GFS likes to bring fronts through too quickly. If it can get this far, I think it will dig in. ,

[nchighcountrywx]

VH. Here is the concern. The cold air is on this side of the hemisphere for the next few weeks. It is very early to be hoping for something, but most of us know if we don't cash in...it will be gone during the heart of winter. Probably will have to wait for the pattern to reload, looking at mid-late Jan at best. I really don't get too bent out of shape when looking at patterns this far out - after all it is something completely put of our control. However, right now it looks like a receiver being wide open on a 90 yard post pattern and then drops the ball. Perfect set-up may not produce. That said, I don't see a long term torch. Just normal cool winter temps and a very dry pattern. Like was said earlier, a lack of a weak Niño is probably the culprit.

+1

Also, We have already likely had 15% of our snowfall this winter with the 'Sandy storm'

Still hoping for more and we will see if December produces!

White on the ground in the High Country is always nice in December. Hunch is we'll have something again of significance by December 10

[HKY_WX]

And I will add, I am not convinced this pattern won't produce. The NAO and AO are extremely favorable. If I didn't know the Pacific was so terrible, I'd say something was due any time. The pattern just looks like it wants to bottle the cold up on the lee side of the northern Rockies. But cold air, of the nature building in Canada, is notorious for causing model havoc. The Euro likes to leave energy in the southwest and the GFS likes to bring fronts through too quickly. If it can get this far, I think it will dig in. ,

The pacific is a minuscule factor in comparison to the AO. If the PV does indeed split apart and we see a strong -AO pattern setup, we will see plenty of cold/snow in December. Of course all this contingent on the models being right. But just look to 10-11 winter to see a -PDO/-AO combo and what can result. And the PDO while negative again this year, will likely not come close to that winter. The CFS also hints at a +PDO pattern as we progress into Jan/Feb.

[Carvers Gap]

The pacific is a minuscule factor in comparison to the AO. If the PV does indeed split apart and we see a strong -AO pattern setup, we will see plenty of cold/snow in December. Of course all this contingent on the models being right. But just look to 10-11 winter to see a -PDO/-AO combo and what can result. And the PDO while negative again this year, will likely not come close to that winter. The CFS also hints at a +PDO pattern as we progress into Jan/Feb.

Thanks, HKY_WX. I want to make sure I understand this. It is good for the PDO to be negative to offset the AMO at this point. If it goes positive for a time, what are the outcomes climate speaking. I am assuming by your comments this is good. Is this just a bounce or a shift of the PDO.

[packbacker]

Per RaleighWx on Twitter...

@RaleighWx: Euro Ensembles show a lot of cold pattern signals as we progress thru 11-15 day period. Very -AO/-NAO. Building +PNA and slightly -EPO.

[Bevo]

I agree about the Pacific, but there should be periods of a favorable Pacific this winter. I am not concerned about having a wall to wall great Pacific. In fact, that's unlikely. In fact, it seems like most years lately, it's not all that favorable, which appears to be a function of the -PDO which operates on a 30 year cycle. So if we're going to spend a lot of time worrying about that, then we're going to spend a LOT of time worrying about it. The -NAO is more important for us, and if the state of that is favorable for the bulk of the winter, then we will be just fine when all is said and done.

This...

The pacific is a minuscule factor in comparison to the AO. If the PV does indeed split apart and we see a strong -AO pattern setup, we will see plenty of cold/snow in December. Of course all this contingent on the models being right. But just look to 10-11 winter to see a -PDO/-AO combo and what can result. And the PDO while negative again this year, will likely not come close to that winter. The CFS also hints at a +PDO pattern as we progress into Jan/Feb.

And this.

These are the most important pieces for winter in the SE. Also, the PJ doesn't look to be the same hyper active 6 year old it was last winter. Hopefully that will remain true, as it could cause a train wreck very quickly.

[Met1985]

I cannot believe anything the models are spitting out past this weekend. First the huge ridge in the country that looks to take hold after the cold shot next week around the first of December; I do not believe because the NAO and the AO even though the ensembles are pretty spread out they still show both in the negative and some very deep negative ensembles at that. Right now I think the models are in wtf is going on mode. Just my opinion. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!

[LithiaWx]

The pacific pattern is significant imo. It shouldn't be dismissed as it literally has impacts downstream on a good portion of the us the se being even more vulnerable to it. I also personally have an issue with the attitude being shot at those that aren't gung ho about where things are headed. That opinion is just as valid as the optimistic ones. The naysayers got some pretty hefty disrespect last season. I really don't want to see that happen again. Again jmo ill go back to lurking now.

[Wow]

The pacific pattern is significant imo. It shouldn't be dismissed as it literally has impacts downstream on a good portion of the us the se being even more vulnerable to it. I also personally have an issue with the attitude being shot at those that aren't gung ho about where things are headed. That opinion is just as valid as the optimistic ones. The naysayers got some pretty hefty disrespect last season. I really don't want to see that happen again. Again jmo ill go back to lurking now.

I certainly hope there won't be any real disrespect for differing views on the wx forecast. I think many are aware of the unavoidable "preaching to the choir" that happens, however, we do not want to stifle anyone's thoughts even if it rubs against the snow/cold weenie mantra.

I do believe after last year's train wreck, many here are more lucid to the idea of (gasp!) extended warm and snowless periods during winter now. The previous 2 winters spoiled some of us.

With regard to the upcoming forecast, the pacific will always play a role, though its significance varies always as well. Very strong -NAO can overcome a -PNA and a strong +PNA and overcome a neutral or even +NAO to deliver cold and/or snow to our region.

I think HKY_WX's thought on the pacific having less significance is from the models' forecasts of a strong -NAO/AO block developing and holding on thru early Dec.

[packbacker]

I know this may get deleted since its the JMA, but Euro is supressed, not this much though...

[WilkesboroDude]

Here is some of my unpopular beliefs...that I keep in the back of my head... to keep myself from getting too excited.

Drought breeds drought...moderate drought is starting to break out just east of the blue ridge in VA as well.

Change to a wintry pattern after Thanksgiving? Not to be a negativity nancy here...but I think we call that the start of winter overall...whether precip is wintry or not.

NOAA cancels El Nino Watch...but we all know that winter is more complex than just that feature.

I don't really do forecasts...I lack experience...but I think there is a decent shot that areas from Charlotte to Atlanta get little to no winter precip overall.

Here is hope that we get 1 storm to bring above average snow to all. Nobody can forecast that this far out.

[griteater]

Pacific, North Atlantic, Arctic, Canada, let's face it, it's all important for getting wintry weather in the southeast.

One thing I've seen posted from Wes (usedtobe) is the fact that the MJO plays a larger role when the ENSO signal is weak. So that's something to monitor this winter, as getting the MJO in favorable phases will help with both the Pacific pattern and the NAO as well - there are papers that cover this.

[griteater]

18z GFS West Based -NAO is literally off the chart on Allan's site

[BullCityWx]

18z GFS West Based -NAO is literally off the chart on Allan's site

I think I remember his snowstorm case study saying NAO is more important in the western part of the state.

[pcbjr]

18z GFS West Based -NAO is literally off the chart on Allan's site

For some strange reason, that part of Allan's site is not loading. Can you either post a pic or a link?

[burgertime]

Here you go... and 00z and 6z

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Pacific, North Atlantic, Arctic, Canada, let's face it, it's all important for getting wintry weather in the southeast.

One thing I've seen posted from Wes (usedtobe) is the fact that the MJO plays a larger role when the ENSO signal is weak. So that's something to monitor this winter, as getting the MJO in favorable phases will help with both the Pacific pattern and the NAO as well - there are papers that cover this.

This is very true...... When Enso is weak and doesn't have an over-powering global influence, the MJO will make-or-break a winter forecast. While I agree with the previous post that the AO/NAO combination is the biggest player in our winter weather, the pacific is #2 and where the forcing sets up is crucial to our cold and snow chances. With that being said, this winter is nothing like last winter. There are some things that are unfavorable, such as the PDO, but the common theme is for a colder pattern in the eastern US than last winter. To call for a mild winter would be going against the grain. While it can and may happen, there is no signal out there right now that would lead you to believe that a mild winter is a lock.