Jon Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 GFS is really ugly in the LR, no blocking, huge SE ridge, WC trough. Well that won't happen. Forget the GFS LR until it gets a handle on the pattern we're about to dive into. Huge SE ridge and WC trough? What the....what other models have that in the LR? I'm pretty sure the GGEM looks like the Euro as well. Any other LR model buying into this east coast heat wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 From Brad P. Facebook timeline: Cold building over Canada https://www.facebook...162655917140206 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Since 2004, I don't know of anywhere that's had worse luck with snowstorms than CLT Whichever part of the Triangle I happen to be living in at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Whichever part of the Triangle I happen to be living in at the time. Agreed, not even close, we haven't been above average since 2004, nobody else can say that. Jan 10, 2011 event was the icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 21, 2012 Author Share Posted November 21, 2012 +PNA/-NAO (albeit a little east-based) in place by D+7 per 12z ECMWF. Whether anything will come of it is too early to say. If a 50/50 low can pop and full the NAO block back west, we'll be good to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Agreed, not even close, we haven't been above average since 2004, nobody else can say that. Jan 10, 2011 event was the icing on the cake. Again, that's what's so discouraging to me...it took the best set up we could have it seems from 09-11 to yield average results for many (including CLT). I fear unless we don't get another extraordinary setup, we're not going to get much. Thus I'm really interested in the pattern right now. However it seems like there's so many mixed signals, we have to just wait and see. Man 2004 was great though wasn't it? I wonder what the setup for that was....-NAO, +PNA, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 +PNA/-NAO (albeit a little east-based) in place by D+7 per 12z ECMWF. Whether anything will come of it is too early to say. If a 50/50 low can pop and full the NAO block back west, we'll be good to go. Aloft it gets pretty durn cold next Friday for late November. 850 line makes it down to FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Euro didn't look bad at all. We'll just have to wait until next week to see what actually materializes...but so far so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 21, 2012 Author Share Posted November 21, 2012 Euro blowtorches the western 2/3 of the country.. and coming east.. 50/50 low fails to get fully established beyond the initial setup. Close but no cigar. The overall direction here is good, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Again, that's what's so discouraging to me...it took the best set up we could have it seems from 09-11 to yield average results for many (including CLT). I fear unless we don't get another extraordinary setup, we're not going to get much. Thus I'm really interested in the pattern right now. However it seems like there's so many mixed signals, we have to just wait and see. Man 2004 was great though wasn't it? I wonder what the setup for that was....-NAO, +PNA, etc? It was perfect...+PDO, -AO, +PNA, -NAO. The PNA was postive for nearly all of Jan/Feb. We won't have that this winter. We have to hope to get a 7-10 day pattern to setup and hopefully get lucky this winter. It's going to be tough to get a big storm without a favorable pacific, which will be difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 21, 2012 Author Share Posted November 21, 2012 The models, as you'd expect, are quite variable beyond D+7.. but model verbatim, if the 50/50 low can firm up and pull the NAO block back west, that'll lock in the below norm temps for the east and keep any progression of the western ridge from moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Euro blowtorches the western 2/3 of the country.. and coming east.. 50/50 low fails to get fully established beyond the initial setup. Close but no cigar. The overall direction here is good, though. Which probably isn't a bad thing, would hate to waste a good setup in early Dec, be nice is it tried again mid/late Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Which probably isn't a bad thing, would hate to waste a good setup in early Dec, be nice is it tried again mid/late Dec. I'll take it whenever we can get it. I don't want to have to keep waiting for the next 10 days. I know it's early, but last winter everyone was saying it's coming later and it never came. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 It was perfect...+PDO, -AO, +PNA, -NAO. The PNA was postive for nearly all of Jan/Feb. We won't have that this winter. We have to hope to get a 7-10 day pattern to setup and hopefully get lucky this winter. It's going to be tough to get a big storm without a favorable pacific, which will be difficult. Thanks! Again, learing here...what are we looking for in regard to the pacific? Is that what the PDO is all about? Are all these telleconnections so ridged that they really can't line up like 2004 at all this year? In other words I wonder if the NAO/AO cooperates, why is it so unlikely that the PDO won't? Check that I think you're saying it may line up in a 7 day period; it won't be favorable all year. Gotcha. Man, all these telleconnections is like playing yahtzee trying to get everything to line up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Is there any impact to winter from a developing drought just prior to winter for North Carolina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Euro blowtorches the western 2/3 of the country.. and coming east.. 50/50 low fails to get fully established beyond the initial setup. Close but no cigar. The overall direction here is good, though. Agreed. As stated several times already, we did not see any hopeful direction like this from around mid February 2011 to end of April-ish 2012 (resulting in one of the most abysmal winters ever to disgrace the SE). I am comfortable with this "dress rehearsal" per se. I'll take it whenever we can get it. I don't want to have to keep waiting for the next 10 days. I know it's early, but last winter everyone was saying it's coming later and it never came. That's what she said. Sorry - old habits and all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I very roughly estimate that KATL, on average, gets 0.75" of liquid equivalent that falls as S, IP, or ZR in Dec-Mar. I roughly estimate that half of that is ZR. The median for total DJFM wintry precip, is probably more like 0.40" (because so many have relatively little while a few have really large amounts). So, I roughly estimate that about half of the DJFM's will have 0.40" or less falling as wintry precip. In a bad winter, that could easily be less than 0.10" and even 0.00". In a very few great winters, that has been as much as ~3" or even a little more (from huge ZR events or multiple major ZR events). On average, KATL gets an avg. of about 18" total liquid equivalent in DJFM. So, with the median wintry pecip. being ~0.40", no more than ~2% of the total liquid equiv. falls as wintry precip. in half the KATL winters. I bet that places like RDU don't even get more than ~5% falling as wintry in half of all winters. In a typical very good winter where KATL gets one major S/IP storm (about one in four) and there is, say, 0.75" liquid equivalent, that still is not much more than 4% of the total liquid for DJFM. My point for areas like much of N GA is that almost always there will be only a very small % of the total precip. falling as S, IP, or ZR, including most great winters. The vast majority of systems are going to produce just plain rain. So, patience is so badly needed for wintry precip lovers around here. I'm happy enough with the idea of a "normal winter" around here. Last winter it got cold enough for frozen, if there had been some rain around....maybe only one or two nights...but as always it takes timing. If it's winter, at least a few nights will be cold, and even in a drought a few nights will be wet.....so it's the timing that counts - atl and +pac will help..a lot, sometimes...but without the timing, it's just interesting stats in another snowless winter's log. I think the best upgrade for our chances would be a switch to a wetter than normal winter, rather than a colder than normal one. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 We may not have a consensus on a winter pattern, and may never, if ever, if at all, but Happy Thanksgiving, South East folks! 1.tiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 18z LR totally seems legit... either way some part of the country is going to get some really cold weather for early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 For the last three years models show changes or storms then lose them. Its only November so definitely no concern right, now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 18z LR totally seems legit... either way some part of the country is going to get some really cold weather for early December. Nice event for ATX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 22, 2012 Author Share Posted November 22, 2012 Nice event for ATX Atbasar, Kazakhstan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Yes ,drought breeds drought,or something like that.may be a drier winter.we can't even get a frontal band of showers thru the Carolinas! Is there any impact to winter from a developing drought just prior to winter for North Carolina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Since 2004, I don't know of anywhere that's had worse luck with snowstorms than CLT Don't confuse luck with climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 If the GFS is right we are going to flip quickly into a winter pattern w/ winter threats as soon as Dec strikes. Very exciting in the long range. If it's right, it bodes well for a good winter with -AO dominated pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 22, 2012 Author Share Posted November 22, 2012 If the GFS is right we are going to flip quickly into a winter pattern w/ winter threats as soon as Dec strikes. Very exciting in the long range. If it's right, it bodes well for a good winter with -AO dominated pattern. Indeed, the model goes wild with blocks building all over the arctic region, and explains the low confidence and run-to-run inconsistency among the models. I'm curious to see how the PNA will act this season given the big move toward a +PDO in recent weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Indeed, the model goes wild with blocks building all over the arctic region, and explains the low confidence and run-to-run inconsistency among the models. I'm curious to see how the PNA will act this season given the big move toward a +PDO in recent weeks. Exactly. You actually want inconsistency in the long range if you want a pattern change, because the models are following the tail of a whip. The further out, the more variability, and the more the model is unsure of what is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Exactly. You actually want inconsistency in the long range if you want a pattern change, because the models are following the tail of a whip. The further out, the more variability, and the more the model is unsure of what is going to happen. Yep model ma heme at it's best with big pattern changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 If the GFS is right we are going to flip quickly into a winter pattern w/ winter threats as soon as Dec strikes. Very exciting in the long range. If it's right, it bodes well for a good winter with -AO dominated pattern. Haven't seen enough of the 00z, but the 18z certainly was in line with your thinking. Looks like a key to me is whether this -NAO sets up west or not, and holds. Some of the modeling keeps lower heights in central Canada and the -NAO stays east. Pacific has its own set of issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 22, 2012 Author Share Posted November 22, 2012 0z continues the strengthening Greenland block and holding that crucial 50/50 low in place, effectively shielding us from any abv normal temps by maintaining confluence overhead. The rest of the run into la la land actually keeps a 576mb block right over Greenland for several days. Needless to nay, the NAO is going to go solidly negative over the next few weeks, perhaps very strongly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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