Met1985 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Wow big difference in this GFS run than the last. Remember the wild swings in play from run to run. But wow the cold air really pushes in here all the way down to the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Beat me to it Burger! Impressive cold shot for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 Ah, 18z does what we need to bring the real cold stuff this way, that is, it phases in the Arctic jet and pulls the PV over to SE Canada. With the cold in place, then we can start looking for any disturbances which may trek through the STJ as we get nearer to this time frame. GFS is very progressive with it, however, as the ridge over Greenland fails to lock in and deflects toward N Europe. This is all well beyond 240 hrs so it all does not mean much right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Many of the GFS runs now are splitting the polar vortex at 30 hPa and we're getting under the 10 day window.Still looking for the warming over the pole but if the split occurs it should warm. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Many of the GFS runs now are splitting the polar vortex at 30 hPa and we're getting under the 10 day window.Still looking for the warming over the pole but if the split occurs it should warm. Just my opinion. It very well should. There's a little of that chicken or the egg talk on whether a warming stratosphere will bring around a -AO blocking regime or the atmospheric conditions in the higher pressure range will then bring about a warming at the pole (the "bottom-up" scenario). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 It very well should. There's a little of that chicken or the egg talk on whether a warming stratosphere will bring around a -AO blocking regime or the atmospheric conditions in the higher pressure range will then bring about a warming at the pole (the "bottom-up" scenario). Also the polar vortex is splitting at 10 hPa on some runs but not quite in the 10 day yet but close.Getting action on these levels can change patterns IMO. MJO is also forecast to come around into phase 1 and 2 so we may get even more help there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Also the polar vortex is splitting at 10 hPa on some runs but not quite in the 10 day yet but close.Getting action on these levels can change patterns IMO. MJO is also forecast to come around into phase 1 and 2 so we may get even more help there. It's getting there at 10 hPa by 240 hrs. The PV split definitely manages to rise up to 30 hPa by then, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Still interested in the possible CAD setup next week. 6Z GFS is showing the CAD with colder 850 temps and more precip. Day seven looks like the start with 850 zero line temps near the NC Virginia line. Will have to watch this, of course surface temps / dewpts will be critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Just from things I'm seeing,this looks like a set up where the arctic air drops down the plains and stalls sw-ne through TN and KY where if there is precip,Memphis and Dallas get the frozen precip,and majority of SE stays warm and dry.JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Just from things I'm seeing,this looks like a set up where the arctic air drops down the plains and stalls sw-ne through TN and KY where if there is precip,Memphis and Dallas get the frozen precip,and majority of SE stays warm and dry.JMO Very possible. This is how I see it as well. A tight gradient of temps while the se stays normalish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Very possible. This is how I see it as well. A tight gradient of temps while the se stays normalish. Can't forget about the cold outbreak this weekend. Thats been trending colder. Looks like our first freeze could be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Whoa lordy the very end of the GFS looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Whoa lordy the very end of the GFS looks great! Yeah, that is what we want, to bad it's the GFS at hour 348... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 The mean trough position slowly moves eastward through the run, while it begins in the west-central US, after a PNA ridge pops beyond 240, the arctic hounds are released as our -NAO block holds throughout the model run. Some nice cross-polar action, albeit in the long range. Nice wave 1 pattern emergine. With the exception of last year, December 5 has been a good date to many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Looks great, but too bad it's two weeks away. I hope the trend can keep it up, though. We could have a great start to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 12z Euro toward the end of the run is putting together one awesome setup... huge 50/50 low, Greenland block, and +PNA ridge with building high pressure sliding in from Canada, and a nice STJ wave digging to the GOM... @ 240 hrs: True arctic air (-25C just north of the Lakes) moving in with strengthening HP from the deepening 50/50 low (basically a part of the PV). Some exciting things are showing up on the models more and more now... I think the start of December is going to be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Nice developing -NAO on today's Euro, retrograding west at the end. Not so good in the eastern Pacific though (in general). I'd like to see that pig anomaly over the Bearing Strait wash out, as it is keeping a mean trough off the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Great looking map .... unless you have ACC Championship Game tickets. 12z Euro toward the end of the run is putting together one awesome setup... huge 50/50 low, Greenland block, and +PNA ridge with building high pressure sliding in from Canada, and a nice STJ wave digging to the GOM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Nice developing -NAO on today's Euro, retrograding west at the end. Not so good in the eastern Pacific though (in general). I'd like to see that pig anomaly over the Bearing Strait wash out, as it is keeping a mean trough off the west coast. Pacific actually turns pretty well by the end of the run IMO, with trough west of HI teleconnecting to the +PNA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 If it's just going to produce a cold rain, I'll pass. But if it can set something else up down the road in regards to a good snow, I'm all for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 If it's just going to produce a cold rain, I'll pass. But if it can set something else up down the road in regards to a good snow, I'm all for it. Thanks for the heads-up. The build-up of cold air in Canada is a very good thing and something we didn't see a lot of last year. Also good, as was mentioned, is the continued -NAO signal. The SW on the 240 Euro map would probably end up wide right if that depiction were to verify verbatim, but given that the major pieces are somewhere near the correct spaces on the map, that's a very good starting place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Pacific actually turns pretty well by the end of the run IMO, with trough west of HI teleconnecting to the . Yes a lot of promising signs on the models now. Great thread, thanks for all the analysis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Thanks for the heads-up. The build-up of cold air in Canada is a very good thing and something we didn't see a lot of last year. Also good, as was mentioned, is the continued -NAO signal. The SW on the 240 Euro map would probably end up wide right if that depiction were to verify verbatim, but given that the major pieces are somewhere near the correct spaces on the map, that's a very good starting place. I agree, it's a good starting point. Looks much better than last winter so far. Get the players on the field and in the right places for some good stuff to come our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Precip wise the Euro is awfully close to something much bigger. If this keeps showing up (which it probably will not) with that setup, someone is going to be in business early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Precip wise the Euro is awfully close to something much bigger. If this keeps showing up (which it probably will not) with that setup, someone is going to be in business early. It is close as long as the cold air builds in ahead of it in a bit more pronounced fashion. The s/w misses the phase as it's sliding down to the GOM but if it does, it's going to bring down some bitter cold air for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 12z Euro Ensembles in general agreement with the 50/50 PV low situated over SE Canada. That'll lock in our greatly desired -NAO. Also agrees with the PNA ridge as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Yeah, that's a pretty strong -NAO signal for a day 10 ensemble mean (along with -AO). Get the MJO to spark some occasional ridging along or just off the west coast, and this would have real potential in early Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Thanks Wow and the others for the analysis. It really looks like things are shaping up nicely. I thought we'd have more mets and others in general posting about this with such a good looking trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 18z GFS backs off, but then it is late in the day for Goofy .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Thanks Wow and the others for the analysis. It really looks like things are shaping up nicely. I thought we'd have more mets and others in general posting about this with such a good looking trend. This is something to be optimistic about. The flip side is it is a long way out and there are a few ways that good setup could go wrong and just miss us. I see lots of optimism which is great but we have a long way to go yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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