dsaur Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The good Dr. has been swerving all over the road at the end of its run. And he doesn't go deep like the Gfs. Still, this far out. the most likely outcome is a trough in the west with chill blanes in Galvaston, or bitter up east. If P A's owl eyes are still there in a week, it's time to go low hunting, because it might get cold down south straight on instead of the usual modified afterthought T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Allan's definitely not holding back on the cold talk for Dec... Allan Huffman@RaleighWx (Twitter) Cold pattern to be in place it seems for December. Don't think Dec 89/10 levels just yet. But certainly to favor cold for Lakes/East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 12z Euro Ensemble and 18z GFS Ensemble have a similar progression through hr240, with a slowly building -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Saw this from Adam (am19psu) - "MJO suggests the possibility of a +PNA in early December. The Euro weeklies showed a weak +PNA in week 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 0z GFS NAO forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Well it's good to see the 6z keeps us on it's toes. It bottles all the cold air up north and out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 latest Euro Nao forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 latest Euro Nao forecast: 6z GFS also keeps the NAO strongly negative.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I'm just glad the pattern seems to be overall favorable leading into winter. Looks like we have a lot of hope for this year. However I still have little faith in winter weather for the SE in early December. Late December is rare enough, early December I think would be even more hard to come by. We may get below normal temp wise, but that's about it in my expectations. I think we just need patience. I wonder what the stats are for our earliest snows in piedmont of NC? Of course the magical I-40 north corridor is probably alot earlier than CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I'm just glad the pattern seems to be overall favorable leading into winter. Looks like we have a lot of hope for this year. However I still have little faith in winter weather for the SE in early December. Late December is rare enough, early December I think would be even more hard to come by. We may get below normal temp wise, but that's about it in my expectations. I think we just need patience. I wonder what the stats are for our earliest snows in piedmont of NC? Of course the magical I-40 north corridor is probably alot earlier than CLT. Well unfortunately for us, I am concerned this upcoming pattern changes lasts to say Dec 20th and than we have 3-4 week breather, which puts towards the end of January. We may be looking at having to wait until February for our first real snow event. I think some Met's forecasted a colder December, warmer January and colder February. It might be 2 1/2 months before we (central/piedmont NC) have a real shot at something. I am just glad the -NAO/-AO are being shown so hopefully they come back end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I'm just glad the pattern seems to be overall favorable leading into winter. Looks like we have a lot of hope for this year. However I still have little faith in winter weather for the SE in early December. Late December is rare enough, early December I think would be even more hard to come by. We may get below normal temp wise, but that's about it in my expectations. I think we just need patience. I wonder what the stats are for our earliest snows in piedmont of NC? Of course the magical I-40 north corridor is probably alot earlier than CLT. December and March mirror each other in terms of snow events over the years, in Charlotte…with early Dec much like late March, and late Dec much like early March. However, Dec is the 2nd coldest of the 4 months (Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar), so there’s a bit of untapped potential there. Here are some notable Nov / early Dec snow events in Charlotte (some of these span across multiple days)… 12/03/1896 – 11.0 12/17/1904 – 3.3 12/12/1917 – 5.6 12/17/1930 – 10.4 12/17/1932 – 3.8 12/15/1945 – 4.7 12/14/1958 – 2.9 11/12/1968 – 2.5 12/03/1971 – 7.5 12/17/1973 – 4.4 11/19/2000 – 2.5 12/04/2002 – major ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 12z GFS LR keeps all the cold to our west and north then goes back to warmer temps. Let the dance continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 12z GFS LR keeps all the cold to our west and north then goes back to warmer temps. Let the dance continue. Sigh... Might as well wait till its 5 days out and the models arent flip flopping. Then there would be no fun in that or watching the timeframe get pushed back further and further. Oh well its already colder here than last wiinter. Its been below average all month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 12z GFS LR keeps all the cold to our west and north then goes back to warmer temps. Let the dance continue. The GFS truncating after 192 and basically parking the trough over the SW and dumping crazy cold air all the way in Mexico is not realistic. I do like the trends before before model truncation.. that is, forming a PNA ridge and hooking it up with the AK block. A -NAO forms during this time too before the GFS overwhelms it with the PV just west of Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The GFS truncating after 192 and basically parking the trough over the SW and dumping crazy cold air all the way in Mexico is not realistic. I do like the trends before before model truncation.. that is, forming a PNA ridge and hooking it up with the AK block. A -NAO forms during this time too before the GFS overwhelms it with the PV just west of Greenland. I agree (..not realistic), but the setup is a possibility. I'm a little interested in what the GFS is showing at day 8. If things were a little different we could be looking at a possible CAD situation. The next model frames shows the high quickly moving out and a big warm up starting, but this is where the models have always had issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 The GFS keeps the flow fast around the PV in Canada, disallowing any sort of phase with the developing trough out west beyond D+7 and maintains a positive tilt, thus keeping the arctic air bottled up in Canada. Regardless, the "squeeze" is still on at the arctic region. The firm presence of the Aleutian and Greenland ridges/blocks through out the model run tell me that that there will be plenty of model watching throughout at least the first half of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 December and March mirror each other in terms of snow events over the years, in Charlotte…with early Dec much like late March, and late Dec much like early March. However, Dec is the 2nd coldest of the 4 months (Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar), so there’s a bit of untapped potential there. Here are some notable Nov / early Dec snow events in Charlotte (some of these span across multiple days)… 12/03/1896 – 11.0 12/17/1904 – 3.3 12/12/1917 – 5.6 12/17/1930 – 10.4 12/17/1932 – 3.8 12/15/1945 – 4.7 12/14/1958 – 2.9 11/12/1968 – 2.5 12/03/1971 – 7.5 12/17/1973 – 4.4 11/19/2000 – 2.5 12/04/2002 – major ice storm I was just thinking about the December 3rd storm of 1973 just before I read your post. I remember it very well. Big snow and ice storm here in the upstate of South Carolina. But I also remember a 4 inch snowfall here on the night of November 10th, I think in the year 1968. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I was just thinking about the December 3rd storm of 1973 just before I read your post. I remember it very well. Big snow and ice storm here in the upstate of South Carolina. But I also remember a 4 inch snowfall here on the night of November 10th, I think in the year 1968. Yeah, I've got 1.7in on Nov 11, and 0.8in on Nov 12 - 1968, at CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 If the double block continues to show, then Goofy will eventually figure out the result of the squeeze would squirt the toothpaste down here Otherwise, the logical outcome would be one block, or the other, and a cold west, or a cold east, with the usual highly modified hit and run for us. I don't mind an early, unusual cold snap here, as long as it comes back around New Years. Cold Dec. 1st, cool Xmas, cold New Years, is all right. Funny how the thoughts always run to "if", and "or". Like a true cold winter from Dec. 1st to the end of March, isn't possible, lol. Well, we just saw a hot one from start to finish is compeletely possible. I'd prefer bitter, and bitterer throughout. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The GFS keeps the flow fast around the PV in Canada, disallowing any sort of phase with the developing trough out west beyond D+7 and maintains a positive tilt, thus keeping the arctic air bottled up in Canada. Regardless, the "squeeze" is still on at the arctic region. The firm presence of the Aleutian and Greenland ridges/blocks through out the model run tell me that that there will be plenty of model watching throughout at least the first half of December. Ya lots of model watching will be going on. It is interesting already seeing the swings in each model from run to run. With so many changes this should be no surprise at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 12z European similar to GFS where the PV over N Canada overpowers and essentially stays put the entire run and pushes every trough in the US into a sheared, positively-titled axis. Very boring run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The 12z Euro has a shortwave diving down through eastern NM into far west TX at hr 240. From looking at the 500mb maps on instantweathermaps it looks like it could be trying to set up an overrunning type of event with the potential of P-type issues on the northern fringe. This exact presentation is not likely to happen being 240 out but at least it's showing something to look at...at least for one model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I just can't help but to think things are going to shape up nicely for a good winter. The players are all there. I think we're going to see everything come together as we head into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 The Euro Ensembles are very encouraging to kick off the end of the month and into Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The 12z Euro has a shortwave diving down through eastern NM into far west TX at hr 240. From looking at the 500mb maps on instantweathermaps it looks like it could be trying to set up an overrunning type of event with the potential of P-type issues on the northern fringe. This exact presentation is not likely to happen being 240 out but at least it's showing something to look at...at least for one model run. Speaking of overrunning, you know, I think I'd take my chances with a normal temp winter and all these damming events every few days. I've been enjoying a cool ne wind and fine drizzle all day. My fondest wish is these cads will go on all winter. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 GEFS more gung-ho on the AK ridge/block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 GEFS more gung-ho on the AK ridge/block Another learning opportunity, please bare with me, does the GEFS and the EURO ENS not show a spliting of the polar vortex? The higher heights extending over the poles? Looks good to me. The blue means cold!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Another learning opportunity, please bare with me, does the GEFS and the EURO ENS not show a spliting of the polar vortex? The higher heights extending over the poles? Looks good to me. The blue means cold!! Look at this pic below...I wouldn't say it splits but a lobe does elongate and drops south into Canada...give us a +PNA and this board would explode for the MA and NE folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I no everyone keeps looking to the end of the month but the cold shot this weekend is nothing to look past. Seems like each run this blast of cold air keeps getting more impressive. Now the models look to have some upslope snow along the TN/NC boarder counties. This would be some of the coldest air we have seen all season in some places, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 18z is back on the train...has a big shot of cold air coming to the SE after a big front at 240 (cold chasing rain before anyone gets excited at what they see). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.