mackerel_sky Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Just for funsies and giggles Accuwx local longrange forcast for Greenville,SC has rain/snow mix on Dec 24 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 DT has some interesting thoughts on his website: *** ALERT *** PATTERN CHANGE LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS MODELS MOVE INTO STRONG AGREEMENT .... WINTER IS COMING... more shortly But...but others have confidently said that it will not be winter until the PNA and the DNA intertwine with an ambiguously tilted CDC during the next solar eclipse in the southern western middle eastern quarter hemisphere and everyone finally changes from analog to a digital converter box. How can these Mets sleep at night?! I kid - come on...bring it in for the real thing You can at least see why the PNA looks deceptive here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Maybe for the first time all winter...the 0z GFS is putting out a storm in the fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 1, 2012 Author Share Posted December 1, 2012 0z GFS says Dec 10 pattern change for us still on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Folks, The 11-15 0Z Sat GEFS are about the coldest they've been in a good while. At the least, they look pretty encouraging. Maybe we have something good going here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Maybe for the first time all winter...the 0z GFS is putting out a storm in the fantasy range. I hope it comes before the Mayans end the world. That would disappoint the Brickster if comes a few days after Hmmm....can it snow after the end of the world it there's a + Pacific, and = Atlantic? I have lived in Ga. a long while, and I've learned to not expect much before the week after Xmas. That's when the fur can think about flying. Maybe the mtn.s can get excited about long range possibles. Maybe if we get some cad we can get some freezing drizzle, and more over toward Lookout, but expecting another Cold Rain magic trick might be overly ambitious this soon after. Of course, if CR starts to sputter, out come the moles, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 00z Euro...LR fantasy storm (for the NE) but better than nothing! Things might be looking up fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Folks, The 11-15 0Z Sat GEFS are about the coldest they've been in a good while. At the least, they look pretty encouraging. Maybe we have something good going here? Didn't you just write off December? LOL! Did you get your irrigation and sod? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 6z GFS brings the real goofy to the table and thrusts most of the US into artic conditions. Also gives snow to portions of the SE...these are the fantasies we love to see. Grain of salt...blah blah blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 6z GFS brings the real goofy to the table and thrusts most of the US into artic conditions. Also gives snow to portions of the SE...these are the fantasies we love to see. Grain of salt...blah blah blah. Yep, 6z run was quite a run. Of course it has anomalies nowhere near (or should I say, the exact opposite) of its previous run. Overall I like the theme of high latitude blocking developing soon, but where exactly those anomalies occurs will mean the difference downstream. GGEM and ECMWF through 10 days looks about the same, but more ridging PNA+ on GGEM, which would probably be colder for us. GFS has had some blocking in northeast Canada and central/North Canada for quite a few runs now, but not each time. Atleast this season we are now having some fantasy storms and cold showing up, whereas the odd thing last Winter was that almost never even showed up at all , in any models...which is a testament to just how bad the pattern was last year. Also, with the -NAO pattern as of late, the Southeast has been cooler than average, esp. some parts. Augusta had about the 10th coldest November on record. I say as long as we keep seeing -NAO, the pattern will offer the Southeast chances and this was what was missing last Winter...straight positive AO/NAO all Winter, then the negatives began in Spring. Bad timing. Sounds like folks are wanting a lot of snow and Arctic cold in December (or to atleast see it show up within 2 weeks). Remember how truly rare that usually is though. We've been spoiled quite a few Decembers since 2002. As long as we don't suddenly lose the Eastern Canada/Greenland riding in Jan and Feb, I think the chances are very good at some Winter fun and games, even into March, but with the cold -PDO and Alaskan Vortex showing signs of coming back (even on ECMWF it works back in there), there will be back and forth dominators of the pattern, so maybe nothing sustained for a while. In my opinion, even with the Alaska Vortex and moderate to strong -PDO pattern, if (more like when ) the NAO goes strongly negative and there's a big Eastern Canada block, like we've seen a lot of, then that forces a supressed pattern which is actually pretty good for precip chances. It's not quite like a true Split Flow that we see in some El Nino Winters, but a system rolling from northern California to Oklahoma then forced to dive south before cutting up the East Coast (that describes many storm tracks in the 50s, 60's, 70s actually during -PDO, -NAO). So give it time..we're still only on December 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Didn't you just write off December? LOL! Did you get your irrigation and sod? Power, Lol! Well, the heck with good walking wx lol. I'll gladly freeze my butt off as a sacrifice to get to enjoy some good winter wx. Apparently, that is the secret...I write off an entire month and the very next Goofy shows a colder trend. I wrote that after the 12Z Goofy, including Ens., still showed a lack of much good news through 12/16. Then suddenly yesterday's 18Z suite looked better. Also, yesterday's 12Z Euro ens. 11-15 looked a good bit better than its prior run. Then, as I posted, the 0Z GFS ens. 11-15 looked sig. improved making mid-Dec. suddenly look encouraging. Since then, the 0Z Euro suite looked much improved for 6-15 and then the 6Z 11-15 Goofy suite looked quite sweet!! That ens. has to what Robert just alluded: a very nice moist WSW flow for 12/12-16 with a massive amount of Arctic air not too far to our north. At the least, this would imply good rains. At the best, Brick and all would be dancing in the streets. By the way, don't tell Brick all of this now. He'd be going gaga. Hopefully, he will be away from the bb today lol. The sod and irrig. haven't been put in yet because their main guy got sick. They had just taken out the old grass. So, it has been delayed indefinitely. So, I'm sitting here with a dirt lawn waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Sounds like folks are wanting a lot of snow and Arctic cold in December (or to atleast see it show up within 2 weeks). Remember how truly rare that usually is though. We've been spoiled quite a few Decembers since 2002. As long as we don't suddenly lose the Eastern Canada/Greenland riding in Jan and Feb, I think the chances are very good at some Winter fun and games, even into March, but with the cold -PDO and Alaskan Vortex showing signs of coming back (even on ECMWF it works back in there), there will be back and forth dominators of the pattern, so maybe nothing sustained for a while. In my opinion, even with the Alaska Vortex and moderate to strong -PDO pattern, if (more like when ) the NAO goes strongly negative and there's a big Eastern Canada block, like we've seen a lot of, then that forces a supressed pattern which is actually pretty good for precip chances. It's not quite like a true Split Flow that we see in some El Nino Winters, but a system rolling from northern California to Oklahoma then forced to dive south before cutting up the East Coast (that describes many storm tracks in the 50s, 60's, 70s actually during -PDO, -NAO). So give it time..we're still only on December 1st. Is it really too much to ask after last winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 I love reading threads in the morning after the 0 and 6 runs. Most of the time it is bad, but maybe just maybe we are on to something now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Power, Lol! Well, the heck with good walking wx lol. I'll gladly freeze my butt off as a sacrifice to get to enjoy some good winter wx. Apparently, that is the secret...I write off an entire month and the very next Goofy shows a colder trend. I wrote that after the 12Z Goofy, including Ens., still showed a lack of much good news through 12/16. Then suddenly yesterday's 18Z suite looked better. Also, yesterday's 12Z Euro ens. 11-15 looked a good bit better than its prior run. Then, as I posted, the 0Z GFS ens. 11-15 looked sig. improved making mid-Dec. suddenly look encouraging. Since then, the 0Z Euro suite looked much improved for 6-15 and then the 6Z 11-15 Goofy suite looked quite sweet!! That ens. has to what Robert just alluded: a very nice moist WSW flow for 12/12-16 with a massive amount of Arctic air not too far to our north. At the least, this would imply good rains. At the best, Brick and all would be dancing in the streets. By the way, don't tell Brick all of this now. He'd be going gaga. Hopefully, he will be away from the bb today lol. The sod and irrig. haven't been put in yet because their main guy got sick. They had just taken out the old grass. So, it has been delayed indefinitely. So, I'm sitting here with a dirt lawn waiting. definitely need to water it with no rain in sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Regardless of the exact timing, this is a good sign as we head into winter. Eventually it will lead to a pattern change. I think part of the problem is the blocking has been on the other side of the pole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 12Z GFS still looks quite good in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Thank God, postive PNA on the way. This should halt the endless low pressure systems from crapping up our fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 12Z GFS still looks quite good in the LR. Bitter cold air mass threatening the northern plains in the 10+ day range. What will be interesting is to see if this air will erase the warmth from this week once it gets here. Might be a month where everyone finishes +1...but does not tell the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Bitter cold air mass threatening the northern plains in the 10+ day range. What will be interesting is to see if this air will erase the warmth from this week once it gets here. Might be a month where everyone finishes +1...but does not tell the story. Yep. It'll be nice to see this work it's way into the 1 week time frame. But the good news is that for several cycles, models have trended toward a more favorable pattern. Things are certainly looking better and better toward the middle of the month, not that we'll get lots of snow, but the pattern looks better than it does currently or than it did several days ago. It's just too bad that so many people already gave up on December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Yep. It'll be nice to see this work it's way into the 1 week time frame. But the good news is that for several cycles, models have trended toward a more favorable pattern. Things are certainly looking better and better toward the middle of the month, not that we'll get lots of snow, but the pattern looks better than it does currently or than it did several days ago. It's just too bad that so many people already gave up on December. The bigger story for the SE in the medium range may be the amount of rain it shows for the SE it will be great to fall into a wetter pattern for everyone...and maybe just maybe we can keep it around and bring in the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Yep. It'll be nice to see this work it's way into the 1 week time frame. But the good news is that for several cycles, models have trended toward a more favorable pattern. Things are certainly looking better and better toward the middle of the month, not that we'll get lots of snow, but the pattern looks better than it does currently or than it did several days ago. It's just too bad that so many people already gave up on December. It has been quite some time since I have seen that type of air mass in the Plains. -30 air in central Canada. I read many of Don's posts on the main board. He preaches severely -AOs eventually produce cold East. I must admit, I was getting worried until I read his analysis a few days back. Impressive track record. Hickory also mentioned a change could be on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 The bigger story for the SE in the medium range may be the amount of rain it shows for the SE it will be great to fall into a wetter pattern for everyone...and maybe just maybe we can keep it around and bring in the cold. True, Let's get some moisture in here first!!! The cold will come soon or later, but like you said big news is much much needed rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 The bigger story for the SE in the medium range may be the amount of rain it shows for the SE it will be great to fall into a wetter pattern for everyone...and maybe just maybe we can keep it around and bring in the cold. You got that right. My yard is a dust bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 It has been quite some time since I have seen that type of air mass in the Plains. -30 air in central Canada. I read many of Don's posts on the main board. He preaches severely -AOs eventually produce cold East. I must admit, I was getting worried until I read his analysis a few days back. Impressive track record. Hickory also mentioned a change could be on the way. I agree. I've been reading Don's stuff for a long time, and he is very good. I usually double-check my level of enthusiasm against what he and Wes have to say about the short/medium term in order to see if I'm on the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Let's string together a few days of model runs showing the rains. It has been very dry here the last few years but the last three months has brought me about 4.87 inches of rain and for the year I'm only at around 32". Very very dry around these parts. at this point ill take any precip frozen or liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Looks like the Euro loves the idea of the GOA death star vortex. It appears to have plans to keep that there all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Looks like the Euro loves the idea of the GOA death star vortex. It appears to have plans to keep that there all winter. never bet against the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Looks like the Euro loves the idea of the GOA death star vortex. It appears to have plans to keep that there all winter. There are no words for the epicness of winters in Alaska. Last year and this year is mother nature showing Alaska how things can be in a place that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 There are no words for the epicness of winters in Alaska. Last year and this year is mother nature showing Alaska how things can be in a place that far north. I know it! I love cold and snow, but I don't know if I could take those kinds of winters. It would be something to see, though. That's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Looks like the Euro loves the idea of the GOA death star vortex. It appears to have plans to keep that there all winter. This could be a post from this time last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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