BullCityWx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 And the Euro weeklies come in to throw a wet blanket on the "pattern change"...there is not much of any belows in the east on Week 3 and 4...there is not much support for much in the way of Greenland blocking. Not a forecast...but an interesting change to be watched for consistency.... You know, you're a quality poster in every subforum except sports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 You know, you're a quality poster in every subforum except sports. My best work this fall has been in the panthers thread! easy material there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 And the Euro weeklies come in to throw a wet blanket on the "pattern change"...there is not much of any belows in the east on Week 3 and 4...there is not much support for much in the way of Greenland blocking. Not a forecast...but an interesting change to be watched for consistency.... LOL. And just last week they were showing a great pattern for weeks 3 and 4. What are they showing for the Pacific? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Yeah, models definitely sniffing out some sort of change in the Dec 8-10 onward time period. I got into it and showed quite a few charts in today's video/ discussion....it's on the blog linked below. 6z GFS is rather fun-looking later on.... but it's obviously still out in fantasyland. Of course it's only 10 days away. But at least we have something to look at in fantasyland. I just hope that trough breaks soon, the -NAO holds on, and we geat a real pattern change that is favorable for snow. Great to see you posting here. I hope we can get you and raleighwx to post more often, but I guess that depends on if we actually have something interesting to track this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Yeah, models definitely sniffing out some sort of change in the Dec 8-10 onward time period. I got into it and showed quite a few charts in today's video/ discussion....it's on the blog linked below. 6z GFS is rather fun-looking later on.... but it's obviously still out in fantasyland. And the Euro weeklies come in to throw a wet blanket on the "pattern change"...there is not much of any belows in the east on Week 3 and 4...there is not much support for much in the way of Greenland blocking. Not a forecast...but an interesting change to be watched for consistency.... And the roller coaster continues.....so does that mean it's a net some zero? I think my tendancy would be to lean on the EURO weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 And the roller coaster continues.....so does that mean it's a net some zero? I think my tendancy would be to lean on the EURO weeklies. It really is madening. The same day you have the models sniffing out a change around the 10th, and then something else saying not so fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boknows34 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Patience, grasshoppers, patience... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I really do think that last winter has a ton of nerves shot around here. I remember Dec. 2001 was epic in terms of cold and wintry precip, but climatologically speaking it would have been better to have that set-up fifteen days later. We never had the epic winter storm that month, and when the New Year hit winter was over. The epic set-up for the Southeast was gone. I'm just saying, let all the factors come together late in December, and let's hit the home run in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I just took at glance at the new ECMWF Weekly Longer Range: Highlights: December 10/11 shows an interesting system affecting NC that would appear to be a possible southern bowling ball snow event. You can't count on specifics though this far out but this system is carrying it's own cold air along with it and wraps up further as it approaches the NC Coast. Significant cold shows up around December 26 - 28 with -15c temps at 850mb in NW North Carolina an appears to have some reasonablle upslope snow capability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 12z GFS decides to take winter away from the Eastern Hemisphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 To illustrate snowstorm's point, here are the # of major (3.5"+) S and/or IP storms by month since 1879 at KATL (about one every four years): Nov.: 0 Dec.: 4 (last one in 1917!! KATL is sooooo overdue for a Dec. major S/IP..it has been 95 years!) Jan.: 14 Feb.: 11 Mar.: 6 Though Dec. and Feb. have minimum temp averages close to the same, Feb gets arouind 3/4's more rain, thus more chances Jan. gets about an inch more, plus colder, and March gets over an inch more, though the average minimum is 8 degrees or so higher. March, I figure, gets the transition air masses, vigorous, and often very cold, which I'd think would up the chances at timing, with strong cold meeting luke warm, as opposed to Dec. where warm iis transitioning slowly into cold, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 12Z GFS says move along...nothing to see here. It's not terrible but not too exciting either. 12Z Canadian eh has a nice deep trough coming into the Plains at 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 Euro really pumping that ridge over the E Pac while heights are lowering over the N Atlantic. It's looking cold for the second half of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I don't see any blocking on the EURO, it seems the trough would be transient? Is that the right word? Here's from the main thread...donsutherland's latest post... "Some morning thoughts... 1. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) has now dropped below -3.000. This morning's reading was -3.236. 2. In my winter thoughts (Message #6), one of the blocking analogs was 2002. Today, in commenting on the excessive precipitation event now impacting the West Coast, Wes pointed that the leading CIPPS analog is 2002. 3. One of my top analogs for the first week of December was the 12/7-9/1980 period. Highest readings from that period for select cities were: Boston: 61° New York City: 64° Philadelphia: 67° Washington, DC: 71° The 11/30 12z MEX MOS is showing the following highest readings for the first week of December: Boston: 60° New York City: 62° Philadelphia: 63° Washington, DC: 67° December 1980 would later feature a flip to a colder pattern. At this point in time, with the blocking likely to persist, I have little reason to change my thinking that a transition to a colder patter will likely get underway at some point during the second week in December. The second half of December could wind up colder than normal. " Guy was all over last winter each month. Each week I'd come here to look and I'd hear pattern change, pattern change, etc. Each week he had analog, analog, analog on warm, warm, warm. He hit it each time. I guess my point is if he's saying cold at the end of the month, I'm pretty positive right now on the end of the month....at least to transition to something good in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Based on the model trends as well as the not so good Pacific, I'm writing off just about all of Dec in the back of my mind for sustained cold. If it gets cold in the 2nd half, great. If not, ok....maybe it will improve in Jan. and I'd just enjoy the good walking wx in the interim...not such a bad thing lol. A win either way. I'm taking one month at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Goodness, can you guys just wait? It's not even winter solstice yet! February is normally our best month for winter precip anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Based on the model trends as well as the not so good Pacific, I'm writing off just about all of Dec in the back of my mind for sustained cold. If it gets cold in the 2nd half, great. If not, ok....maybe it will improve in Jan. and I'd just enjoy the good walking wx in the interim...not such a bad thing lol. A win either way. I'm taking one month at a time. If you just go ahead and extrapolate that thought process forward through March, you can't lose either way. That might be a better way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Goodness, can you guys just wait? It's not even winter solstice yet! February is normally our best month for winter precip anyways. Now it has been pushed back to Feb? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Based on the model trends as well as the not so good Pacific, I'm writing off just about all of Dec in the back of my mind for sustained cold. If it gets cold in the 2nd half, great. If not, ok....maybe it will improve in Jan. and I'd just enjoy the good walking wx in the interim...not such a bad thing lol. A win either way. I'm taking one month at a time. couldn't agree more, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Now it has been pushed back to Feb? Lol Lol, well for Alabama, I mean December 2010 sure spoiled me, with the Christmas snow and what not. I'm just saying, people are giving up on winter before it even starts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 DT has some interesting thoughts on his website: *** ALERT *** PATTERN CHANGE LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS MODELS MOVE INTO STRONG AGREEMENT .... WINTER IS COMING... more shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 DT has some interesting thoughts on his website: *** ALERT *** PATTERN CHANGE LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS MODELS MOVE INTO STRONG AGREEMENT .... WINTER IS COMING... more shortly <-- hungry like the wolf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 DT has some interesting thoughts on his website: *** ALERT *** PATTERN CHANGE LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS MODELS MOVE INTO STRONG AGREEMENT .... WINTER IS COMING... more shortly Well he's wrong about the PNA. That's not a +PNA ridge. That's not even an EPO ridge. There's some lowering of the heights across the conus, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Well he's wrong about the PNA. That's not a +PNA ridge. That's not even an EPO ridge. There's some lowering of the heights across the conus, but that's about it. Just sharing info; don't shoot the messenger .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Well he's wrong about the PNA. That's not a +PNA ridge. That's not even an EPO ridge. There's some lowering of the heights across the conus, but that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Well he's wrong about the PNA. That's not a +PNA ridge. That's not even an EPO ridge. There's some lowering of the heights across the conus, but that's about it. I do not believe this is correct. I think this qualifies as a +PNA. It may not be the perfect rendering of it, but it's a +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Based on today's CPC NAO/AO/PNA ensemble means...Things may be about to get interesting. 18z showed some cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Based on today's CPC NAO/AO/PNA ensemble means...Things may be about to get interesting. 18z showed some cold. Big -NAO showing up in the LR on the 18Z. It'll be nice if we can get that showing up inside a week, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 +PNA is when the ridge axis is in western North America, particularly with the max positive anomalies in western Canada, not when the ridge axis is off the coast (in this case, it's way off the coast). Here's Allan's PNA Index from that 12z Euro Ens run, showing a neg PNA throughout... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 +PNA is when the ridge axis is in western North America, particularly with the max positive anomalies in western Canada, not when the ridge axis is off the coast (in this case, it's way off the coast). Here's Allan's PNA Index from that 12z Euro Ens run, showing a neg PNA throughout... That's interesting. The actual ridge axis on the Euro is not along the coast, but the flow is out of the NW and the result is colder weather for the Plains and east. The index chart certainly corroborates your assessment. But it visually, it looks and feels like more of a +PNA than a -PNA to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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